Iraqis have been at the polls since seven this morning for the fifth free elections following the 2003 US invasion and the fall of Saddam Hussein’s bloody regime. The vote was brought forward by a year following the October uprising two years ago, when thousands of young people took to the streets to protest against corruption, the economic crisis and the excessive power of the Shiite militias close to Tehran.
The “revolution” was bloodily suppressed, with over 900 protesters killed. The political system remained blocked, divided into religious sects and power blocs. So much so that most young people no longer seem to believe in the elections and will stay at home, in a country where 60 percent of the 41 million inhabitants are under the age of thirty. Abstention could even reach 70 percent, while in 2018 half of those entitled had voted. In the running there are 167 lists and 3200 candidates, who will compete for 329 seats. The polls will close at six tonight and the first partial results are scheduled for tomorrow. Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi was among the first to vote and hopes to win a confirmation.
Three Shia blocs, the Sunnis and the Kurds, who are the protagonists of the vote
Competing for the relative majority in parliament are three Shiite groups, with the Sunni and Kurdish parties in the second line for demographic reasons. Shiites are 65 per cent of the population, Sunnis 25 per cent, Kurds 10 per cent. The favorite block is that of Imam Moqtada al-Sadr, Sairun, that is, “on the march”. It has nationalist positions, both anti-US and anti-Iran, and has the powerful Mahdi Army militia. The second block is that of Fateh, led by the Iraqi leader closest to the Pasdaran, Hadi al-Ameri, and supported by the most extremist militias of the Hashd al-Shaabi, the Shiite paramilitary cartel. He finished second in 2018 and is now aiming for first place on the emotional wave of the killing of Qassem Soleimani, which has rekindled anti-American sentiment among Shiites.
Fateh opposes the protest movement of October 2019 and its militiamen killed hundreds of protesters. The Shiite bloc close to the “young revolutionaries” is the Coalition for the rule of law, led by Imam Ammar el-Hakim and former pro-US premier Haider al-Abadi. It aims to collect popular discontent, especially among young people. The Sunnis are also divided into three blocs. One pro-US, the Taqaddom movement, led by the current President of Parliament Mohammed al-Halbousi. Then there is the pro-Qatar group, Azn, of the billionaire Khamis el-Khanjar, under American sanctions for its ambiguities towards jihadist groups. Finally, there is the pro-Turkish Oussama el-Nujaifi, who leads the Sunnis of Mosul. The Kurds, on the other hand, are divided into two large parties. The Kdp of the Barzani clan, pro-US and owner of the provinces of Erbil and Dohuk, and the pro-Iranian Puk of the Talabani clan, which dominates the eastern province of Sulaymaniya. The unknown factor is the independent candidates, pushed above all by young revolutionaries, who define themselves as “tishrini”, from “tishrin”, October, and have again occupied Tahrir Square, the epicenter of the uprising two years ago.
LIBYA
Migrants on the run and clashes between militias, chaos in Tripoli. Two and a half months after the elections scheduled for December 24, Tripoli is experiencing a new period of tension. The Interior Ministry launched a crackdown on migrants and petty crime, which however ended up irritating other militias that control parts of the capital. First there was a huge round-up of African migrants, with five thousand arrests. They were taken to the notorious centers around Tripoli but a revolt broke out in that of Al-Mabani. Six inmates were killed by the guards but at least two thousand managed to escape. Other roundups have started. The Interior Ministry then targeted clandestine alcohol retailers and arrested dozens of them in the airport area. However, four were under the protection of the mighty Misrata 301 Brigade. The militiamen attacked the headquarters of the militia linked to the Ministry of the Interior and in the clashes there were dozens of dead and wounded between Friday evening and yesterday.