Japan and New Zealand held a summit in Tokyo on April 21, announcing that they would discuss expanding security cooperation, including intelligence sharing. Experts believe that the Japan-US alliance is eager to strengthen security cooperation in order to prevent New Zealand from becoming a breach of the Indo-Pacific strategy. However, the strength and methods of Japan and New Zealand to deal with China vary due to geographical and other conditions.
Prevent New Zealand from becoming a breach in the Indo-Pacific strategy
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern held bilateral leaders’ talks in Tokyo on April 21. The two sides announced after the meeting that they would discuss issues such as expanding defense and security cooperation, including intelligence sharing; the two countries also warned of regional challenges.
In order to consolidate alliances and strengthen post-pandemic trade, Ardern started a trip to Asia on April 18, with Tokyo as one of the stops.
The Japanese media “Kyodo News” reported on April 22 that in a joint statement after the summit, Nissin reiterated its common and established position on a number of issues, including the two countries’ joint opposition to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and their concerns over regional threats.
“Attempts to change the status quo by force will never be tolerated,” Kishida told reporters after the meeting with Ardern.
“Japan and New Zealand strongly oppose such attempts in any area, including in the East and South China Seas,” Kishida said, but neither Kishida nor Ardern directly named China.
Indo-Pacific research expert, Professor Chen Wenjia of the Department of Public Affairs and Management of Kainan University in Taiwan said in an interview with VOA that New Zealand is an important country in the South Pacific. As the game heats up, it is still adopted to maintain economic and trade exchanges with China and “strategically ambiguous” in security cooperation with Western countries led by the United States. New Zealand has joined the WTO, APEC, etc. China is a member or applicant of these organizations. However, in terms of security cooperation, New Zealand is a member of the “Five Eyes” alliance of the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. He pointed out that China has always hoped to use New Zealand as a breakthrough in the US Indo-Pacific strategy.
Chen Wenjia said: “Faced with the possible breach of New Zealand, Japan, as the most important executor of the ‘offshore check and balance strategy’ of the United States against China, naturally strives to assist the United States in ensuring the core task of ensuring the security of the Indo-Pacific region. China and Solomon Islands in April The signing of the security agreement on the 19th means that China has gained a military foothold in the South Pacific. In order to prevent New Zealand from being threatened and lured by China and causing similar incidents to impact the security and stability of the Indo-Pacific region, it is reasonable for Japan to take the initiative to attack. At the new summit, Japan and New Zealand expressed their unanimous strong condemnation of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine as a sword against China’s one-sided actions to ‘change the status quo by force’ in the East China Sea and South China Sea, in order to prompt New Zealand to choose sides.”
Koji Takahashi, an expert on Asia at Rikkyo University in Japan and a researcher at the Japan Institute of Political Economy at Tamkang University in Taiwan, agrees. He said that unless it was in the face of a territorial threat posed by China, there would be few important and urgent reasons for Japan to propose security-related cooperation with New Zealand.
He said: “New Zealand is rarely mentioned in the Japanese media, especially in news related to diplomacy. Many people have a vague concept of New Zealand. The most topical issue in the Japanese media is China, and this cooperation is also in response to China. The news of the signing of a security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands on April 19 has already occupied a lot of space in the Japanese media and has attracted wide attention. I think Japan’s discussion of security cooperation with New Zealand this time is also aware of the strengthening of cooperation with South Pacific countries. The urgency of cooperation.”
Takahashi Takahashi pointed out that New Zealand is not a regional power, and there are not many troops, so if Japan proposes to cooperate in security, New Zealand is of course willing to participate in common defense.
Japan’s intelligence management is fragile and difficult
“We had frank discussions on strengthening the strategic partnership between the two countries and producing concrete results,” Fumio Kishida said at a press conference after the summit, announcing the two countries’ decision to start negotiations on security and defense-related agreements.
In a joint statement, the two sides warned of “increasing challenges to the fundamental values and principles shared by Japan and New Zealand” and reiterated their commitment to a “free and open Indo-Pacific region.”
The two countries also decided to start negotiations on an “intelligence protection agreement” to expand the possibility of exchanging confidential information.
Chen Wenjia, an expert in Indo-Pacific regional studies and a professor at the Department of Public Affairs and Management of Kainan University in Taiwan, said that the launch of this negotiation is a further demonstration of Japan’s more explicit and forceful foreign policy toward New Zealand, prompting New Zealand to recognize the hegemonic threat posed by China in the region. Resolutely join the Indo-Pacific strategy camp and jointly counter China.
He said: “In recent years, Japan has successively signed ‘intelligence protection agreements’ with three major European countries, Britain, France and Germany, obviously trying to use the power of the United States, Britain, France, Australia, Germany and other Western countries to strengthen its deterrence against China. It has created better conditions for expanding its geographical influence with countermeasures, and at the same time, it has also been deployed in advance for participating in the Five Eyes alliance led by the United States. Nissin’s decision to initiate negotiations on an ‘intelligence protection agreement’ will touch on bilateral security cooperation. Relevant issues, coupled with the strong dominance behind the United States, Japan’s joining the Five Eyes alliance or participating in a fairly in-depth cooperation project, and the deepening of cooperation between New Zealand and QUAD (Quarter Security Dialogue) should be just around the corner.”
Chen Wenjia pointed out that QUAD is expected to hold a summit in Tokyo at the end of May, and the communication before Nisshin can be regarded as a prelude to QUAD’s expansion of regional cooperation.
Takahashi Takahashi, an expert on Asia at Rikkyo University in Japan and a researcher at the Institute of Political Economy and Economics at Tamkang University in Taiwan, said that the cooperation between Japan and New Zealand will mean that the members of the Five Eyes Alliance and QUAD will be one step closer, but there should be no significant increase in the short term. big move.
He said: “As far as the Five Eyes Alliance is concerned, if more and more countries are involved in the interoperability and sharing of information, the possibility of information being leaked to the outside world is also increasing. Japan’s legislation is particularly vulnerable to information security management. From this point of view, Japan does not actually have the conditions to join the Five Eyes alliance, so the bilateral cooperation between Japan and New Zealand can be regarded as a compromise solution for Japan to participate in the Five Eyes alliance.”
Takahashi Takahashi pointed out that from the negotiation of the “Intelligence Protection Agreement” between Japan and New Zealand, it can be inferred that Japan will seek bilateral cooperation in intelligence sharing with the members of the Five Eyes Alliance in the future. QUAD cooperation is an expedient measure for both parties considering the expansion of organization and convenience.
Professor Chen Wenjia from the Department of Public Affairs and Management of Kainan University in Taiwan believes that although the Japan-Singapore cooperation can be regarded as an increase in the cooperation of the United States to suppress China for the Five Eyes Alliance and QUAD, there are also points that must be paid special attention to.
He said: “Japan and New Zealand used to adopt a strategically ambiguous attitude towards China. Now that Nissin deepens cooperation, once the power becomes stronger, it may cause the US’s security monopoly policy to become unbalanced. In addition, Nissin’s attitude towards China The degree of economic dependence is very high, and if China’s bait and countermeasures gradually develop, the centripetal force of the Five Eyes Alliance and QUAD may be more affected by the Japan-Singapore cooperation.”
Chen Wenjia pointed out that deepening cooperation between Japan and Singapore will inevitably require greater investment of strength and resources. The economic recovery period after the epidemic will be a considerable burden, and may therefore offend China. Like Australia, it will suffer economic and trade retaliation, especially New Zealand, which is adjacent to Australia. Be especially cautious about this.
There are still differences in the ambiguity of Nisshin’s strategy
Regarding the balance between Japan and New Zealand in security and economic and trade, Professor Chen Wenjia said that China is currently Japan and New Zealand’s first trading partner, the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area is under agreement, and New Zealand and China have upgraded the free trade agreement in April this year. effective month. With such reliance on China, Nippon-Singapore will maintain the long-term principle of strategic flexibility in security and trade. However, due to geographical differences, the two countries have different implementation methods and strengths.
He said: “Japan is close to China, and there is a direct threat of geographical proximity. Especially after China implemented the Coast Guard Law in February last year, it has seriously endangered Japan’s maritime lifelines in the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. The Russian-Ukrainian War After the war, China and Russia have developed a closer strategic cooperative relationship, which has forced Japan to adjust its policy toward China. Therefore, when Japan is currently facing a threat to its national security from China, it will of course adopt its previous strategy toward the United States and China. The balance is gradually corrected toward a firm line of resistance against China. New Zealand’s concerns are very different from Japan’s, and there is no urgency to correct it.”
Chen Wenjia pointed out that New Zealand is 10,000 kilometers away from China, and naturally there is no threat of geographical neighbors. Based on the economic and trade relations with China, the intensity of resistance to China is bound to be far less than that of Japan. Therefore, New Zealand should maintain its resistance to the United States to a certain extent. Strategic ambiguity in China-China relations.
Takahashi Takahashi, an expert on Asia at Rikkyo University in Japan and a researcher at the Institute of Japanese Economics and Political Science at Tamkang University in Taiwan, also agrees with this view. He said that the similarity between Japan and New Zealand is that both sides are subject to China’s economic and trade control. The difference is that New Zealand is far away from China, and there is no territorial dispute. In terms of security and trade, Australia is used as a buffer.
He said: “New Zealand’s national security and economic and trade actually rely on Australia’s structure, so even if New Zealand does not directly trade with China, it can conduct triangular trade, importing Chinese goods to Australia and then to New Zealand, but Japan does not have this As a buffer partner, Taiwan may also be able to play that role, but the current tension between China and Taiwan is also unstable.”
Takahashi Takahashi pointed out that the economic and trade relations between Japan and China are currently unresolved, coupled with issues such as territorial disputes and regional security threats, China must be much more nervous about Japan than New Zealand.