The perspective is reversed: now it is the Kremlin that accuses Kiev of feeding the flame of the atomic conflict. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke at a meeting of his United Russia party this morning and, while on the one hand he expressed responsibility and knowledge of the risk, on the other he behaved as if Russia were the victim of the threat from Ukraine
«We cannot remain silent on the subject of the possible use of nuclear weapons – said Lavrov – This discussion has recently intensified. In particular, we cannot remain silent about the reckless actions of the Kiev regime aimed at creating the risk of using various weapons of mass destruction. With his appeal to strike our country with a preventive nuclear action, Zelensky has shown the whole world what kind of threats he intends towards us. Attempts by several of his secretaries to claim that he meant something else are ridiculous. We all remember how in January he announced Ukraine’s desire to possess nuclear weapons; therefore this idea has been present in him for a long time. Just the other day, his Polish brothers confirmed that they too have the same dreams: to acquire nuclear weapons ».
Ukraine and the relationship with nuclear power
For the avoidance of doubt, it is good to remember Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons, while Russia does. In 1991 Kiev found itself controlling about 5000 nuclear warheads between strategic and tactical weapons, that is the third nuclear arsenal in the world after Russia and the United States, but it was a very different era: to the detriment of a certain internal opposition, the country chose until from the beginning the denuclearization and in accordance with the Budapest Memorandum of December 1994 by June 1996 all nuclear weapons (and their vectors) were dismantled or transferred to Russia. A choice made following the breakup of the USSR, in the sign of peace and the end of the Cold War. Maybe if they had made a different choice now the war in Ukraine would have already ended, but probably no one would be alive to tell. Moreover, after the tragedy of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986 years earlier, the fear of atomic energy for civil or war purposes was very high among the population.
Lavrov and the war, questionable management
The problem is that Lavrov, who has always been among the most cautious of the Russian executive, does not have the possibility to admit the strategic mistakes made so far and also the bugbear of the end of the world bomb (quoting the film Doctor Strangelove) cannot go on forever. After American President Biden had referred to nuclear Armageddon and Ukrainian President Zelensky had also accused Russia of endangering humanity with his actions, the Russian Foreign Ministry had issued a startling statement: “The Federation Russia does not intend to participate in raising the level of nuclear rhetoric. Moscow is committed to respecting the principle of the inadmissibility of nuclear war ». In contrast to all previous threats.
The rhetoric of the Foreign Ministry has changed several times since the start of the conflict. After a triumphalistic start in which it seemed to be able to take Kiev in the space of a couple of days, there was a grueling attrition, the change of objectives, the redefinition of plans up to the decision to introduce partial mobilization to overcome an embarrassing stalemate for one of the self-styled most powerful armies in the world.
Lavrov, Putin’s prime minister who has been speaking in the West since February in Italy in the “Zona Bianca” broadcast on Rete 4, already last June, however, had defined the atomic escalation as “a non-viable hypothesis”. Now, it seems that the Ukrainian president’s exit to let his country join NATO has been taken as a pretext. Even Lavrov does not know how the situation could evolve: “The reckless actions of the Kiev regime are aimed at increasing the risk of using various weapons of mass destruction.” The reasons Zelensky should want to escalate aren’t exactly clear, but in the Russian minister’s mind defending his borders is tantamount to wanting to provoke an atomic conflict.