The number of landings shows no signs of slowing down and the migrants who arrived in Lampedusa in the last 48 hours all appear to have left from Tunisia. The European Commission had already announced for last week a memorandum with the North African country, with the intention of blocking departures. But there is still no trace of the agreement. On the contrary, the country’s financial default is considered increasingly probable. Indeed, according to some analysts it could even be triggered intentionally. After all, the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for the rescue package remain stalled, also blocking the economic aid offered by the EU Commission. And while part of Tunisian civil society opposes negotiations with the EU, tensions are rising between residents and sub-Saharan migrants, particularly in the city of Sfax from which boats leave for Italy. Many migrants would have been taken to other areas of the country, but some Tunisian organizations also denounce the return of 120 people to Libya by the Tunis military, including asylum seekers, pregnant women and minors. AND Human Rights Watch he even speaks of 500 Subaharian migrants deported by the authorities to the militarized zone along the border, reporting testimonies of torture and rape. “Deportations and violence documented for some time”, denounces the NGO Alarm Phone, which asks the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) “to act and guarantee its mandate” because the latest events are “another proof that Tunisia cannot be considered a safe country”. And if Rome and Brussels can wait, the Tunisian president will come on July 4th Kais Saied called the head of the Government of Libyan national unity, Abdulhamid Dabaibato find shared solutions to the problem.
After the visit to Tunis by the EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Oliver Varhelyi, has been postponed several times, nothing more has been heard of the signing of the memorandum between Tunisia and the European Commission. The official version is that the visits coincided with one of the main holidays in the country, but there is no official news of a resumption of talks. The European Commissioner for Internal Affairs visits Lampedusa on Tuesday Ylva Johansson he guaranteed that the negotiations are continuing, but he preferred to gloss over the questions from the press who asked what the Tunisian presidency’s requests were. The states of the Union have agreed on the so-called compulsory solidarity: those who do not want to take a quota of applicants or refugees from countries of first entry such as Italy will pay a contribution of 20 thousand euros for each migrant not accepted, but no obligation to relocate. The agreement penalizes us, but the Italian government has preferred to talk about a change of approach by the EU, finally convinced of having to invest in “external dimension” to block departures thanks to the collaboration of third countries such as Tunisia. In the intentions of Italy, but also of the EU Commission which should sign it, the agreement with Tunisia should represent a “model”. In addition to the repatriation of Tunisians, Italy expects to be able to expel migrants whose asylum applications will be declared inadmissible on the basis of the principle of “connection with a third country”, even if it is not the country of origin. An option also included in the agreement reached on 9 June by the EU Internal Affairs Council. On the legal front, there are many unknown factors and the text voted by the majority will in any case have to pass by the EU Parliament, which is responsible for the definitive approval of the Immigration and Asylum Pact. But even if it were approved, in order to deliver the migrants to Saied, the Union and Italy must be able to continue to consider Tunisia a safe third country. Until what point?
Rating agencies now consider Tunisia’s default probable. A risk that should not be excluded even for Claudia Gazzini, an analyst with the International Crisis-Group, who suggests “preparing for the possible scenario and offering emergency financing measures to reduce its impact,” he said on July 4 during the hearing in the Senate Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. But this, he specifies, “does not mean giving carte blanche to Saied, whose increasingly ideological tendencies are worrying, pan-Arab and anti-Western“. On the impasse in the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, which in exchange for a 1.75 billion rescue package is asking for reforms starting with the abolition of a series of state subsidies which Saied does not intend to give up, Gazzini suggests greater flexibility, noting how al moment to support the agreement there is the United States while Italy and France remain on ambiguous positions and Algeria even supports Saied in rejecting the conditions. “But let us not delude ourselves that Tunisia will necessarily accept the agreement with the IMF and the EU Commission, nor can we exclude that for ideological reasons the president you intentionally opt for the default“. A situation which, says the analyst, would not only increase immigration (also towards the EU, ndr) and smuggling with Libya and Algeria, but would prompt the growth of a parallel exchange rate and black market. “With even more serious political and security repercussions: attacks and violent incidents, an increase in criminal activity that would put the security forces under pressure, pushing them to intensify the repression even more”. Also for this reason, he adds, “in addition to economic assistance, the EU and Italy should demand greater commitment on the front of civil peace and in the application of a more tolerant policy”.
Added to the risk of default are the tensions also triggered by Saied himself, who in recent months has declared his intention to oppose the “illegal hordes of sub-Saharan migrants” and an “Africanisation” of Tunisia. According to international observers, the climate of “black hunting” has already prompted many foreigners to leave the country. While the city of Sfax, denounces the Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights, has turned into a trap for thousands of migrants who now live on the streets and without work. According to the spokesman Romdhane Ben Amor, “are perceived as a threat due to the absence of the state and the flooding of incitement speeches in the media”. In clashes between migrants and residents, a 42-year-old Tunisian was killed on 3 July. The killing has led to new tensions and demonstrations against sub-Saharans, many of whom have been forcibly evacuated by the authorities. According to Tunisian League for the Defense of Rights humans, many would have been transferred to the south of the country, presumably to migrant centers in the governorate of Medenine. But for days the complaints of deportations of tens or hundreds of migrants across the border with Libya. Twenty people, part of a group of 48 arrested on July 1, were allegedly subjected to ill-treatment and beatings by the Tunisian National Guard who destroyed their phones and stole their money and then abandoned them at the Libyan border. This is what is described in the release signed by 23 organizations, including some international NGOs such as Sea Watch and Alarm Phone. “On July 4, a second group of 100 migrants was deported to the same location on the Libyan border. There are at least 12 children aged between 6 months and 5 years in the group,” the statement said. Among the rejected also refugees and asylum seekers registered with the UNHCR. Unlike Libya, Tunisia is among the signatory countries of the Geneva Convention which imposes an absolute ban on returning a refugee to territories where his life or freedom would be threatened. Not surprisingly, more than one Italian court has already declared Tunisia a Village non Safe despite being included in the list of safe countries of origin according to article 2 bis of Legislative Decree 25/2008. Decisions that have prevented the repatriation of Tunisian citizens precisely because of the democratic involution and the authoritarian drift underway in the country.
“Tunisia is a country that accepts its presence on its territory only in accordance with its laws, just as it does not accept being a transit area or a landing place for people coming from several African countries”, is written in a press release from the presidency Tunisia after the clashes in Sfax and the killing of the Tunisian citizen, which Saied defined as a “criminal operation”. But, adds the president with words that seem to respond to Italy, “Tunisia it does not accept to be the custodian of borders other than its own”. Moreover, the appeals of Tunisian organizations and parties continue, asking for clarity on the terms of the negotiations with the EU. Yesterday that of the Tunisian Observatory for the Defense of State Civilization, certain that “the manifest haste of the European Union for the conclusion of this agreement is proof that its signature will preserve the interests of Europe, in particular as regards the migration issue”. The NGO urges the EU to “avoid take advantage of the country’s financial and economic crisis and to use it as a pretext to resolve the migration crisis to the detriment of Tunisia’s sovereignty and security”. In short, seen from Tunisia, the memorandum does not seem just a question of money, as we are perhaps used to thinking in the northern Mediterranean. While the EU and Italy wait, Saied makes agreements with the president of the government of national unity in Libya, Dabaiba, who has decided to deploy a joint military force right on the border between Libya and Tunisia, “made up of 450 armed vehicles to control the coastal road from the capital Tripoli it reaches Ras Jedir, the border crossing with Tunisia”, writes theNew Agency which also refers to new control towers along a 1,500 kilometer border.