SUMMER weather: now we tell you what awaits us for the rest of JULY and AUGUST; there are changes
Seasonal projections for next SummerSUMMER 2023: the updates from the European Center on temperatures and rainfall for July and August have just arrived. We tell you right away, there are some changes compared to the previous forecast precisely for the key period of the holidays of many Italians.
First a necessary premise. As usual, to provide a long-term projection we have to analyze the so-called seasonal forecasts, a series of indices (solar, atmospheric, oceanic and others) and the possible teleconnections (“if this happens in this part of the planet, then statistically after some time in that other part of the planet this other thing will happen…”). Once decidedly unreliable and mere object of study and of interest for the curious and enthusiasts, seasonal projections have now become a valid tool for scientific prognosis, with decisive contributions in longer-term climate evaluation.
In Europe, the European Center is the leader in the sector, with a fresh new headquarters in Italy, in Bologna.
Well, on the basis of the latest updates, the Summer that has just begun will probably be characterized by temperatures well above the average between +1/3°C for July over a large part of Italy, especially in the central-northern regions.
Analyzing the map below, the thermal anomaly on practically all of southern Europe immediately catches the eye, in particular on the Mediterranean basin probably due to greater interference from the infamous African anticyclone. Until 10-15 years ago, the milder high pressure of the Azores (of oceanic origin) dictated the law on the Old Continent. Lately, however, we have been witnessing an ever-increasing interference of air masses from North Africa, responsible for the strongest and most persistent heat waves also in our country. Temperatures above the climatic average in July (source: ECMWF) this is therefore a first concern for the coming weeks, moreover in line with that of recent years, during which the problem of climate change is becoming increasingly evident and pressing, also in our country. The high humidity rates (sultriness) make the heat even more unbearable and the reason is entirely geographical: in fact, the hot air masses arriving from the African continent are enriched with humidity as they transit over our seas and this will affect the humidity levels, causing greater physical discomfort.
As far as the month of August is concerned, and here we are at the novelty compared to the previous projection, it really seems that we will have to deal with very high and above average thermal values but, above all, with the more than concrete risk of sudden and heavy storms . The second map that we propose highlights a surplus of rainfall in Italy, in particular in the northern plains and in the Tyrrhenian regions. Precipitations above the climatic average in August (source: ECMWF) Among the effects of this changing climate (towards the heat) the risk of extreme weather events should not be underestimated. With the heat, the potential energy involved also increases and above all the thermal contrasts are particularly enhanced, creating a deadly mix for the development of impressive storm cells, even up to 10/15 km high. In fact, it happens that after a heat wave in the lower layers of the atmosphere, large quantities of humidity and heat stagnate. Subsequently, with the first fresh and unstable gust at high altitudes (usually downhill from Northern Europe), the convective motions (rising warm air) favor the genesis of violent thunderstorms, with a high risk of hailstorms and in some cases, luckily rarer, even tornadoes.