After Prigozhin’s “suspended coup” and the more or less forced withdrawal from the hellish Ukrainian front, theater of annihilation and horrors, the private multinational of the war headed by the Kremlin continues to be at the forefront of conflicts where the Russia has immediate or indirect interests.
While Putin he declares himself extremely “ready to seek a peaceful solution on Ukraine” and as expected he has intensified the bombing of ZaporizhzhiaDnipro and Odessa, the Wagner mercenaries parked in Belarus, thanks to the agreement with the trust Lukashenko they moved towards the border with Poland, and not for “routine reconnaissance”. Not by chance, they have positioned themselves on a strip of land which is the crossroads of 4 “hot” borders, namely Belarus, Poland, Lithuania and the historically disputed Kaliningrad, now in Russian hands, an ideal place to dramatically extend the conflict. In conjunction with raising the temperature Lukashenko, Putin’s megaphone, had returned to the leitmotif dear to the Kremlin of the dismemberment of Ukraine – the object, according to him, of the annexation of Poland.
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According to various analysts, including General Camporesi, it would be the “usual system for creating voltage, of the instrumental use of provocation of which Putin is a professional and depending on the situation he makes unscrupulous use of Wagner’s militias”. But from the point of view of the Poles who have experienced Soviet abuses and manipulations for decades, now perfected by Putin’s manipulation, there is a real risk that the mercenaries – as has already happened in Poland and Lithuania – disguise themselves as border guards to infiltrate the migrants trying to cross the Polish borders. Indeed, as has also reminded us Dominic Quiricoappreciated by our pacifism only when it sticks to the West, “Wagner is much more than a few thousand thugs” as she is clearly demonstrating in Africa, where he implemented “an effective strategy of low-cost influence by exploiting the desperation and malfeasance that we have allowed. Russian propaganda has defeated us in the area where we think we are masters, communication”.
Evgeny Prighozin had already announced it a few days after the coup returned and in the apparent uncertainty of his political position following the reception in the Kremlin; “we will strengthen our presence in Africa”. Thus, if he is not shown a decisive role in the last coup in Nigerunder the noses of the USA, France, Italy, there is no doubt that Russia, thanks to the omnipresence of Wagner and her modus operandi, of which the photographic review of African horrors in Prigozhin’s videos offers a fair insight, is reinforcing its presence In the Sahel. Russia has already been the largest arms exporter on the African continent for some time (40% of the market) and the one in Niger is the sixth coup in the Sahel; there is no high or low intensity theater of war from Libya to Sudan to Central Africa where Wagner’s bloodthirsty and legally non-existent mercenaries, almost always protecting gold and diamond mines, are not present.
If with blatant “institutional” hypocrisy Maria Zakharova and Dimitri Peskov have maintained a very low profile faced with the umpteenth coup and the demonstrators who with brand new Russian flags were praising Putin, there are those in Russia who have clearly expressed enthusiasm. Prigozhin in an audio allegedly enthused about “the anti-colonialist uprising” and the ultra-nationalist ideologue Aleksandr Dugin declared “Niger is ours. The latest France-Africa puppet was toppled just as the Russia-Africa Forum was underway”. Forum that was a perfect propaganda showcase for Putin against the West “that doesn’t care about the Charter of the United Nations and that remembers international law only when it can use it against someone, namely Russia”. It was also the ideal stage to promise more Russian wheat for everyone, for the poorest countries of course and for free, since the Ukrainian one would only go to the odiously rich, while only 3% would be destined for Africa. But it was also an opportunity to commit to the delivery of some of the armaments free of charge.
Thus the unequivocal words of Pope Francis “destroying wheat is an offense to God”, like his appeal to the brothers of the Russian Federation to restore the channels of cooperation, they fell on deaf earscovered by the din of increasingly shouted and jarring propaganda with the facts of a tyrant with no prospects.
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Putin objectively with the aggression of Ukraine has achieved everything he most wanted to avoid, and that is the consolidation of NATO that with the entry of Finland and soon of Sweden materially “isolates” Russia, primarily on the front of the Baltic Sea. Ukraine, which according to Putin was less than a geographical expression and when he wanted to ennoble it he defined it as “part of a single spiritual entity” together with Moscow and which at the most could aspire to make sine die “the buffer state”, has for now secured the status of candidate member of the European Union. And how far Ukraine has moved away from the discriminatory and oppressive subculture dominant in Russia and has solidly moved closer to European values is confirmed by the growing support for the protection of women’s rights community Lgbt, now also recognized within the military. With all due respect to the too many who in Italy have continued, unfortunately especially from the left, to share, if not the invasion tout court, at least Putin’s intent to denazification of the Ukrainian people.
Putin bases his consensus in many African countries on the media, radio, newspapers that he funds through Wagner to spread fake news and slogans against “the imperialism of the rich” at low cost. At home it is guaranteed consent internal with the ferocious repression of dissent, state disinformation, the ostentatious celebration of a greatness that belongs to the past. As he explained Oleg Orlovco-president of the NGO Nobel Prize Memorial dissolved in 2021, “today’s totalitarianism that echoes the Nazi slogan ‘one people, one homeland, one leader’ he is not a communist but precisely fascist because it is inspired by conservative ideologies. Now in power no one has an idea of the future. For them, the best thing is the past.”
As for the future of Russia and the end of Putin’s regime, Orlov made a prediction that doesn’t differ much from what he did Anna Politkovskaya almost twenty years ago: “This end will come sooner or later. It is inevitable. But if it comes too late there will be consequences catastrophic for Russia, as economic stagnation and cultural degradation which will make it retreat into anarchy and chaos” (interview on Monday 31 July, the Republic).