Just under a year to go upcoming presidential elections in Russiascheduled for March 17, 2024, and on Kremlin has already begun to prepare. Thus, at the end of last month, the officials of the administration presidential held a seminar on the internal politics to discuss the “formula” of the elections. As sources of the Russian business newspaper reported RBK, a 70% voter turnout with 75% of the votes for the “authority candidate” was given as a guideline. It is understood that the candidate will be naturally Vladimir Putin.
The amendments to Russian constitutionhastily adopted in 2020 through a controversial scheme and immediately dubbed “the zeroing of Putin“, gave him the opportunity to run for a new, already fifth presidential term. Putin himself has not yet announced his plans to run as candidate in 2024, but no one is questioning them: neither political analysts independent nor the Kremlinwhere they call the participation of the current president the “baseline scenario”.
Second RBKthe authorities plan to hold the elections on time, leaving no doubt about their own legitimacy and trying to convince all groups of the populationespecially i youngto vote for Putin. “It has been said that we need to demonstrate higher numbers than last time,” says one of the interlocutors of the newspaper. The last time was in 2018 when ai deputy governors has been entrusted with the task of ensuring both the turnout at urns is the result of the 70% vote in favor of the ‘tsar’. According to official data, turnout reached 67.5% and Putin received nearly 77% of the vote, even though observers e analysts independent believe that millions of preferences.
Even the state fund forPublic opinionwhich in 2015 had a record electoral support for Putin (76%), at the beginning of 2020 reported that this figure had dropped to 45%. According to the independent statistics center takenin 2018 the electoral consensus of the president it was 57% but in November 2021, a few months before the start of the war, it did not exceed 32%. In four years the momentum of Russians to vote for Putin has almost halved, to a level not seen since the annexation of the Crimea.
Given the situation, for the presidential elections 2024 the Kremlin is seriously considering the protest vote. According to sources in the president’s administration of VerstkaRussian opposition media, le authority they are afraid of the so-called “patriots get angry” and “Westernists”, whose total protest potential reaches up to 35%. The “Westernists” would be i supporters of liberalism and Western values u200bu200bwho are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in Russia and they do not support war. They constitute 10-12% of the electorate, but their number could increase to 15-20%. According to the authorities, this group consists of intellectuals, businessmen, business managers, IT specialists and students. These are mainly residents of Mosca e St.Pietroburgo under the age of 35 who have a higher education and do not watch the TV. The strategy of Kremlin is therefore to “de-motivate” them and distract them from participating in the presidential elections.
However, the “number one threat” that poses the main risks of protests on the eve of the elections, are the “disappointed patriots“: people dissatisfied with Putin’s reluctance, convinced that it is necessary to dismantle the Ukraine and transfer the Russian economy to “military rails”. The Kremlin he estimates that they make up 4% of the population, but the popularity of these positions is gaining traction and the number of these people could potentially rise to 15%. This group appears to include military retirees, online “patriots” and law enforcement, usually men over 35 years of age. These are poorly educated residents of villages and large cities, who get information via the internet and TV. They will be persuaded to vote for Putinor at least for a party candidate Ldprfully controlled by the authorities.
Perhaps the most famous representative of the Russian “angry patriots”, the former colonel of the FSB and former Minister of Defense of the Donetsk People’s Republic Igor Strelkovthus reacted to the publication of the Verstka: “I understood correctly that the president’s administration decided to drag out the war in the so-called “Ukraine” at least until the next elections, that is, until the fall of 2024? If so, how can they think that in a year and a half the population will still be ready to vote on incumbent president?”.