China could become an economic lifeline for Russia, which faces increasing isolation and condemnation on the international stage for its invasion of Ukraine.
With the international community imposing sanctions on Moscow, Beijing has emerged as a key player with the potential to mitigate economic damage and disrupt the pressure campaign.
On Thursday, Chinese customs authorities announced the lifting of import restrictions on Russian wheat, which accounts for more than a quarter of global supplies.
Although the trade deal was hammered out during talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in early February, the timing of the announcement — the day Putin launched a full-scale military attack on his neighbors — was in some ways discredited Interpreted as sabotaging efforts to hold Moscow accountable.
On Friday, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison called the move “totally unacceptable”, accusing Beijing of “throwing a lifeline on Russia during its invasion of another country”.
“It’s a signal of support,” Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, told Al Jazeera about the easing of trade restrictions, adding that “what China has done The other thing is to really make it clear that sanctions are ineffective and unreasonable.”
Garcia Herrero added: “In yesterday’s foreign ministry press conference, the fact that they would undermine this counterattack was already implicit, if not explicit.”
On Thursday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying refused to characterize Russia’s actions as an “invasion” and accused the U.S. of “adding fuel to the fire” of the crisis, adding that “the situation in Ukraine has developed to this day, and it is not something we do.” Hope to see.” And said that he hoped that Russia and Ukraine “return to the track of dialogue and negotiation”.
“Boundless” friendship
Both Beijing and Moscow have scoffed at what they see as foreign interference, but China and Russia have forged close ties amid growing tensions with the United States and its European and Asian allies.
Earlier this month, following Xi’s meeting with Putin in Beijing, the two leaders declared that “the friendship between the two countries has no boundaries and no ‘no-go zone’ for cooperation.”
Qinduo Xu, a senior researcher at the Pangu Institute in Beijing, said China would continue to do business with Russia “as usual” out of sticking to its long-standing stance against unilateral sanctions.
The researcher told Al Jazeera, “But even if you work with the US to put pressure on Moscow, what do you get? Xinjiang cotton will still be an issue, and economic restrictions on Chinese companies related to so-called forced labor will remain in place,” the researcher told Al Jazeera. “Referring to alleged human rights abuses by the Uighur minority in Xinjiang, a remote region of western China.
“The bottom line is that Washington is unlikely to change course against China in strategic competition. So, I tend to see China continue to do business with Russia, not to ease sanctions on Moscow, but not to follow unilaterally in principle Sanctions.”
After easing restrictions on wheat, China could soften the blow of any economic pain inflicted on Moscow, the world‘s third-largest oil producer and second-largest gas producer, by increasing its share of energy imports.
(Al Jazeera)In February, Russia signed a 30-year contract to supply natural gas to China through a new pipeline as part of a growing energy partnership.
“Russia’s exports to China are mainly energy and mineral resources,” said Xu, an expert, adding that “the second pipeline contract signed during Putin’s visit to China is going in this direction, if sanctions affect Russia’s energy supply to European countries. supply, and I expect that trend to continue and likely to strengthen further.”
However, Garcia Herrero said Russia’s inability to move much of its energy supply out of Europe in the short term limits its ability to quickly find new markets.
“You can’t simply expect it to be replaced,” Garcia Herrero said.
U.S. President Joe Biden unveils a series of sanctions against Russia (AP)The United States, Britain, the European Union and Japan have unveiled a slew of sanctions targeting a range of individuals and entities, including Russia’s state-owned banks, national airlines and elites believed to be close to Putin, though not the Russian leader himself. South Korea and Taiwan have said they intend to coordinate with other countries on punitive measures, including export controls.
The measures announced so far do not target Russia’s lucrative energy sector or the country’s use of the SWIFT payment system, both of which would cost Moscow dearly, but there is a risk of high collateral damage in the form of a sharp rise in oil and gas prices. , Europe is particularly dependent on Russian gas, which accounts for 41% of continental supplies.
Xu said he expected Beijing and Moscow to strengthen cooperation to reduce their influence in the international financial system.
“They also talked about creating a mechanism, which is some kind of framework outside of SWIFT, to deal with sanctions,” the expert said, adding, “but so far there has been no visible progress in creating such a mechanism. Obviously , it’s not an easy task.”
Garcia Herrero said the sanctions announced so far were small and Beijing saw no reason to miss a “good opportunity” to turn its nose up at the West.
At the same time, Garcia Herrero said, “They are so limited, I don’t think China even needs to bypass them,” she added, “I don’t think China will bypass these sanctions, they will just look for other ways to support Russia.”
“So far, I think, Biden and the West look very weak and sanctions are limited.”
However, Garcia Herrero said the cost of Beijing’s support could rise sharply if stronger measures are taken in the future.
“If we impose sanctions across the board, the cost to China will be huge,” she added.
“Unless they show restraint, China can easily be drawn into this situation, which is not the case because they think it’s an easy target, but it may not be that easy.”