Russian oil exports rose in March to the highest since April 2020. He writes it the International Energy Agency in his latest monthly bulletin noting how the flows of Russian crude oil have returned to values prior to the invasion of Ukraine. “Total oil shipments increased by 600 thousand barrels per day reaching 8.1 million barrels/day. Estimated oil export revenues rebounded in March of 1 billion up to 12.7 billion dollarsbut were less than the 43% compared to a year ago when prices were above 100 dollars/barrel (against a minimum of 72 dollars hit last March). In theory, according to the most optimistic, this is just the way sanctions are supposed to work, not so much affect the quantity, as for the proceeds that the sale guarantees to the Kremlin. The problem is that in addition to the “official” data, gigantic triangulation schemes are at work whereby Russian crude oil transits from other countries and from here to Europe, the area that is bearing the greatest economic fallout from the sanctions against Moscow.
Russian oil is sold at a discount compared to market quotations precisely because of the problems involved in sanctions. However, this makes it extremely attractive for all those countries that do not participate in the measures against Moscow but still manage to obtain one discount. China, India, Turkey, Singapore, Tunisia, Morocco, Nigeria, Brazil and even Saudi Arabia etc, are all countries that have significantly increased their purchases of Russian oil. Crude oil is often refined to obtain products for resale in Europe. Two weeks ago Japan he said he will continue to buy Russian oil by paying more than the price threshold $60 embargoed which he had originally joined.
In 2019, the last normal year, Moscow obtained 190 billion dollars from oil exports, compared to 50 billion earned by selling gas. That was enough for Russia collect 40 dollars a barrel to finance 100% of its public budget. War spending has greatly increased spending but it is understandable that, even if it were fully enforced and effective, a $60 ceiling is unable to bleed the Kremlin dry but indeed it is sufficient to finance an endless war.