The storm in the Mediterranean doesn’t appear to be subsiding anytime soon. Since the announcement of a gas discovery in the eastern Mediterranean, political and economic tides have collided among countries in the region, leading to escalating disputes over maritime demarcations – most recently Egypt’s announcement to demarcate its western border with Libya The maritime border between them has sparked regional disputes.
The regional dispute raises questions about its origins and how it affects Egypt’s geostrategic interests in the gas-rich eastern Mediterranean region, as well as its political woes — Especially issues related to Libya and its implications for the Egyptian-Turkish reconciliation process.
A few days ago, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi issued a decision in the Official Gazette on the delineation of Egypt’s western border on the Mediterranean Sea. The first article stipulates that Egypt’s maritime border will start with the land border point between Egypt and Libya, It also provides for notification of amendments to the United Nations.
Egypt’s move was opposed by two Libyan governments – the Government of National Accord in Tripoli and a parliamentary-appointed government – which called on Cairo to refrain from unilateral measures to delineate the maritime border, with separate statements saying, Willingness to negotiate bilaterally for mutual benefit.
Greece, meanwhile, welcomed the move, while Turkey called on Egypt and Libya to start dialogue and negotiations as soon as possible to delineate their maritime border as required by international law. “Egypt unilaterally delimits its maritime border with Libya through nine geographical coordinates, which do not overlap with the Turkish continental shelf in the eastern Mediterranean,” Anadolu Agency reported, citing diplomatic sources.
Egypt’s decision comes two months after Turkey and Libya signed an agreement on oil and gas exploration, which is seen as an addition to a maritime demarcation agreement signed by the two countries in late 2019.
Egypt and Greece rejected the deals amid opposition to Turkish activities in the disputed waters of the eastern Mediterranean, and also signed a joint agreement in 2020 to delineate maritime boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean.
On this issue, Al Jazeera tries to answer some of the questions posed by experts and analysts on the motives of Egypt’s unilateral border demarcation and its implications.
What was Egypt’s motivation? Why did it unilaterally declare demarcation?
Regarding Egypt’s unilateral declaration of the demarcation of the western maritime border, Mohamed Abdul-Wahd, an expert on international relations and Egyptian national security, commented that it was “the pinnacle of rationality” and attributed this to:
- The Eastern Mediterranean region is going through an extremely sensitive period of tension and competition for resources.
- Deter any foreign ambitions in the region and uphold Egypt’s right to explore within its regional borders, in accordance with international law.
- The region is likely to have vast world-class natural gas reserves, only 10 percent of which have been extracted, and there are signs that there may be wells in the region that could satisfy some of Egypt’s ambitions.
- International companies are allowed to legally conduct maritime activities without reservation or concern.
- The decision was taken unilaterally due to the deteriorating situation in Libya, where the persistence of political divisions threatens Egyptian interests.
- The demarcation is an extension of Egypt’s northwest land border and does not involve economic borders. It is a fair demarcation in line with international law.
What’s the next step after the demarcation decision? Will it be internationally recognized?
Abdul-Wahd explained that after notifying the United Nations to obtain the international legality of the demarcation decision, it is expected to start exploration activities within the demarcated regional boundaries with complete freedom.
He also explained that Egypt has a long-term strategy that may extend to 2040 to achieve most of its energy-related economic goals, the first phase of which is to start from the abandonment of energy imports, strive to achieve self-sufficiency, and use the remaining of energy exported to Europe, eventually establishing itself as a regional energy hub.
Abdul-Wahd noted that multinationals are encouraging new exploration to meet Egypt’s goal of drilling 45 gas wells in the next three years – most of them in the Mediterranean Sea. He also believes that the demarcation decision will gain international legitimacy because it is an extension of the land boundary between Egypt and Libya and fully complies with the requirements of international law.
flawed initiatives
Egyptologist and political analyst Mohammad al-Zawawi believes that the demarcation decision may be aimed at legalizing the activities of foreign companies in Egypt’s exclusive economic zone, because these companies cannot operate without demarcating legal borders.
However, Zawawi believes that the demarcation declaration is a flawed initiative because it is unilateral and requires two or more countries to participate in the demarcation process under international law.
Zawawi added that the process could be rejected at any time, especially by countries that are not signatories to the international law of the sea, and pointed out that Turkey does not recognize the entire legal mechanism for demarcating borders and calls for adjustments, and has not yet recognized The demarcation process between Egypt and Cyprus, Egypt and Greece.
How does it relate to the thorny issue of demarcation in the Eastern Mediterranean?
In this regard, Ibrahim Fahimi, an expert in the oil and gas industry and shipping, explained that the importance of Egypt’s maritime delimitation lies in the prospect of vast natural gas reserves in the deep-sea economic zone between these maritime neighbors, regardless of Whether these countries are adjacent or relative (including Libya, Palestine, Turkey, Cyprus, Greece, and Israel), such reserves may represent an alternative source of Russian gas to Europe.
Fahimi added that due to multiple reasons intertwined with economic interests, geopolitical influence and relations with neighboring countries, the demarcation issue in the Eastern Mediterranean has always been very thorny and complicated. He also noted that Egypt lies between two clear axes: one represented by Cyprus, Greece and Israel, which has the clear goal of imposing erroneous maritime demarcations at the expense of Egypt, Libya and Turkey s right.
The second is the axis represented by Turkey and Libya. This line plans to return nearly 15,000 square kilometers of sea area to Egypt. Egypt should have given up this sea area to Greece in a way that is not in line with the country’s highest interests.
Fahimi added that the first axis had planned to use the space to build a marine pipeline that would transport the gas directly to the European market without liquefying it, which would have multiplied the cost and time.
As for Egypt’s unilateral demarcation of the western maritime border, Fahimi said that its purpose is to establish an unfair maritime basis for Libya in order to circumvent the maritime demarcation agreement between Turkey and Libya that has been deposited with the United Nations.
The spokesperson believes that Palestine and Northern Cyprus also enjoy the legal rights to natural gas in the Mediterranean Sea. If the two countries gain independence, the demarcation of the boundaries between all countries in the region will become uncertain, and they can apply for cancellation through international arbitration. At that point, each country must defend its own highest interests, not those of any other country.
What message did Egypt send to its eastern Mediterranean neighbors?
Expert Abdel-Wahd emphasized that Egypt seeks to assert its economic and energy rights, while at the same time it does not ignore the geopolitical dimension on a regional scale, or the speed of developments in recent years, he said. He also emphasized that Egypt attaches great importance to not violating the borders of other countries in the Eastern Mediterranean while realizing its plans and goals in energy issues.
In this regard, he explained that this was clearly reflected in Egypt’s demarcation of maritime borders with Cyprus in 2013, Saudi Arabia in 2016, and Greece in 2020. In addition, Egypt also signed an agreement with Israel in 2018. , to export natural gas to Egypt, which will then be liquefied and re-exported to Europe. Egypt also signed a tripartite agreement with Israel and the European Union this summer to export Israeli natural gas to Europe after liquefaction in Egypt, because The latter urgently needs to find a substitute for Russian gas. In addition, it has strengthened its cooperation with Cyprus and Greece, which are the gateways to Europe for gas, and Egypt has launched the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum with countries in the region, which is seen as an opportunity for joint cooperation. regional energy market.
On the other hand, Zawawi added that Egypt is going through an unprecedented crisis due to foreign debt and its accrued interest, and is in dire need of foreign exchange at this stage.
He went on to point out that the demarcation decision reflects Egypt’s desire to speed up the exploration work of foreign energy companies, as well as its desire to move forward with Greece, Cyprus and Israel, without attempting to reach a mutual understanding with the Libyan government or Turkey.
Will it affect the reconciliation between Egypt and Turkey?
Abdul-Wahd ruled out that possibility, explaining that Egypt and Turkey have made great strides towards a looming reconciliation, even if there are still some thorny, unresolved issues that can also be circumvented or delayed.
On Libya, Abdul-Wahd said that Egypt values a political solution and supports Libya’s partners in achieving electoral interests, stabilization and expulsion of mercenaries, especially given that stability in Libya will have a negative impact on the situation in Egypt. positive influence.
Zawawi, for his part, believes that the matter could be an unprecedented opportunity to cooperate, improve relations and achieve mutual interests, especially given that Turkey’s demarcation will give Egypt a larger area within its exclusive economic zone.