Ukraine War: Taurus Debate: Germany’s reluctance sends disastrous signals to Moscow
Freitag, 23.02.2024, 11:15
Germany is discussing the delivery of the Taurus cruise missile to Ukraine. Military technology expert Fabian Hoffmann has a clear opinion: Taurus deliveries are of great military and political importance and the lack of deliveries sends disastrous political signals to Moscow.
What about Taurus deliveries to Ukraine?
There has been a struggle over the delivery of German Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine for over eight months. Although many members of the Bundestag, including prominent politicians from the traffic light coalition, have spoken out in favor of the delivery, the Chancellor remains stoic. He is not currently considering delivering the Taurus to Ukraine.
The reasons for this are unclear, as the Chancellor has so far avoided taking a clear position on this and publicly justifying his position.
Basically, if Germany were to deliver, it would simply be on a par with other European partner nations. France and the United Kingdom have been supplying cruise missiles to Ukraine since May 2023. It is also important to point out the missile deliveries from Iran and North Korea that Russia has been receiving for several weeks. In any case, this means that the delivery of German cruise missile systems would not in itself represent an escalation.
About the guest author Fabian Hoffmann
Fabian Hoffmann is a doctoral student at the University of Oslo. His research focuses on military strategies and technologies as well as European and transatlantic defense policy. His doctoral project deals with the effects of conventional long-range weapons on the nuclear strategies of various nuclear powers. Before studying in Oslo, he was a research assistant at the IISS in Berlin and earned a master’s degree in “War Studies” and a bachelor’s degree in “International Relations”.
How does Taurus differ from the Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missile already in use in Ukraine?
The Taurus cruise missile is comparable to the British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missile that Ukraine already uses. Both cruise missile systems have a range of over 500 kilometers, carry a powerful 450 kilogram penetration warhead designed to destroy hardened targets, and can engage enemy targets with very high accuracy.
However, the Taurus is technologically a little ahead of the Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG. The Taurus has additional “stealth” features, theoretically making the cruise missile more difficult to intercept. Additionally, the Taurus warhead is equipped with an improved fuze, allowing the cruise missile to be more likely to destroy complex targets such as bridges.
Nevertheless, it should be noted that there is essentially no military-relevant mission in Ukraine for which Ukraine would necessarily need the Taurus. The capability profile of Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG is largely sufficient in this regard. This is also a reason why Taurus deliveries should not be considered escalating.
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Then why are Taurus deliveries so urgently needed?
However, there is a big problem: without further deliveries, Ukraine will run out of cruise missiles in the medium to long term.
France and the United Kingdom have delivered approximately 400-600 Storm Shadow SCALP-EG cruise missiles to Ukraine over the last 8 months. Assuming a consumption rate of 30-50 cruise missiles per month, without further supplies, Ukraine will run out of cruise missile arsenal by the end of the year. Of course, Ukraine can further reduce the consumption rate to increase the sustainability of the arsenal. However, the effectiveness of cruise missile strikes decreases rapidly as the utilization rate decreases.
France and the United Kingdom have donated between 20-50% of their cruise missile arsenals to Ukraine. These countries are therefore not prepared to deliver further large stockpiles of cruise missiles to Ukraine, as this would undermine their own defense capability in the event of war.
Apart from these two countries, Germany is the only country in Europe that has a sufficiently large stockpile of cruise missiles to transfer some of them to Ukraine without endangering its own capability. So when it comes to maintaining Ukraine’s cruise missile stocks in the medium to long term, Taurus deliveries are essential.
Why a lack of deliveries sends disastrous signals to Russia
Aside from the catastrophic military consequences that a lack of supplies could have for Ukraine, Germany’s reluctance also sends disastrous political signals to Moscow.
Germany is thus demonstrating its vulnerability to Russian blackmail, which will encourage Russia to commit further atrocities in Ukraine and future blackmail attempts. Russia has shown several times that it is not ready to reciprocate the West’s hesitant attitude. On the contrary: the less determination the West shows, the more likely Russia will escalate.
With regard to the Taurus deliveries, it is no longer just about maintaining military capabilities. The Taurus has become a symbol of German cowardice and blackmail towards Russia by a chancellor who does not seem to recognize the urgency of the situation.
This poses considerable dangers for Germany and NATO. Mental images and ideas of a weak NATO could ultimately encourage Putin to provoke a conflict with NATO. The federal government must therefore get the Taurus deliveries underway immediately – both for our own security and to support Ukraine.
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