Thailand’s largest political dynasty seeks to return to power

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On Sunday 14 May there will be elections to renew part of Thailand’s parliament, a parliamentary monarchy that has a long history of military coups and is still divided between Bangkok’s elites, close to the king and the military party currently in power , and the poorest citizens linked to the opposition Pheu Thai party. According to polls, Pheu Thai, the third edition of the populist party founded by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, seems to have a good advantage over Palang Pracharath, the party of current prime minister and former general Prayut Chan-o-cha.

In the next elections, the 500 deputies of the lower house of parliament will be chosen who, together with the 250 members of the Senate, all military appointees based on the 2017 Constitution, will then choose the new prime minister. About 52 million Thais and experts will vote they expect quite a high turnout.

One of the central figures in Thai politics of the last twenty years is Thaksin Shinawatra, prime minister since 2001 and ousted in 2006 by a coup d’état organized by generals who declared themselves loyal to the monarchy. Thaksin Shinawatra is a wealthy businessman who also gained international fame for being the owner of Manchester City, the famous English football club, from June 2007 to September 2008. His government action, based on populism and a series of very concrete interventions to support the poorest citizens, had guaranteed him great support among Thais living in rural areas and cities in the north of the country.

The subsequent elections in 2011 were won by Pheu Thai led by Yingluck Shinawatra, younger sister of Thaksin, who was elected prime minister and who in 2014 was in turn ousted, after weeks of street protests, by a new coup led by army commander-in-chief Prayut Chan-o-cha, who proclaimed himself prime minister.

The protests had begun over a story linked to Thaksin Shinawatra himself: the opposition had accused the government of having presented an amnesty law only with the aim of acquitting the former prime minister, in voluntary exile abroad since a court l ‘had sentenced to two years in prison for embezzlement. Although the law was rejected by the Senate, the opposition had continued to organize large anti-government demonstrations, demanding the resignation of the prime minister who until then had been accused of being controlled by her brother.

Over the next five years, despite international pressure for a return to democracy, Prayut Chan-o-cha maintained control of the government without setting new elections and carried out a strong crackdown on the Shinawatra-linked opposition. The military also wrote a draft of the new Constitution and in 2016 submitted it to a referendum, however having those who proclaimed themselves against it and who had expressed their intention to vote against the new text arrested and tried by military courts. In 2017, King Maha Vajiralongkorn, also known as Rama X, countersigned the new constitution which, among other things, increased the powers of the military.

After several postponements, parliamentary elections were held in 2019, which received widespread criticism for the questionable way they were handled by officials appointed by the military junta. Although Pheu Thai was the party with the most votes, the vote of the 250 senators chosen by the military junta was decisive for the formation of the new government: Prayuth Chan-o-cha was therefore reconfirmed prime minister. Between 2020 and 2021, huge protests were organized against his government and the King, in which students and women played a key role.

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The rules for appointing the head of government established by the Constitution of the generals are still in force and Prayuth Chan-o-cha ran again. In the meantime he has founded a new party, the Phak Ruam Thai Sang Chart (PRTSC) because his previous party, Palang Pracharath, has chosen Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan as its candidate.

The main opposition candidate is Paetongtarn Shinawatra of Pheu Thai: she is 36 years old, the daughter of Thaksin and granddaughter of Yingluck. His party leads the polls. Paetongtarn Shinawatra has no political experience, and Pheu Thai also has Srettha Thavisin, the CEO of one of the country’s largest real estate companies, as its candidate.

Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister Yingluck had no formal role in Pheu Thai’s electoral campaign, but they remain figures very popular and they continue to exert a strong influence on the country’s politics. Thaksin Shinawatra, in particular, is also supported by the business world and is, above all, very disliked by the military and ex-military who fear a popular mobilization in his favor should he return to the country. Five days before the elections, on May 9, Thaksin Shinawatra wrote on Twitter that he had “decided to return to Thailand” by July 26, his birthday, “to take care of his grandchildren”: his daughter Paethongtarn gave birth on May 1, interrupting the electoral campaign for only two days.

Given how things have gone so far, there is the fear that the probable defeat of Prayut Chan-o-cha could lead to a new intervention by the military, but in recent days the army commander Narongpan Jitkaewthae has explicitly ruled out the possibility of a coup after the elections: «There must be no more coups. For me, this word should be removed from the dictionary,” he said.

If Pheu Thai were to win the next elections, the appointment of Paetongtarn Shinawatra as head of government would not be taken for granted, precisely due to the mechanism established by the Constitution. Even if his party wins the majority of seats in the Chamber, it would be unlikely to obtain the support of senators, appointed by the military junta in 2019 and with a five-year term. For this, and to obtain the necessary 376 votes, Paethongtarn Shinawatra would have to ally with other parties: she has ruled out any collaboration with the current prime minister responsible for the coup, but said she is open to negotiations with Prawit Wongsuwan, which could but make them lose support.

For Pheu Thai, however, collaboration with the Phak Kao Klai party, in second place in the polls, seems more natural. It is a progressive party, critical of the monarchy, in favor of a new constitution, and is very popular with young people. It is led by Pita Limjaroenrat, who is 42 years old.

Another candidate who could play a role in forming the next government and appointing a new prime minister is Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai party and current health minister.