February 14, 2024 09:39
Due to its size they have nicknamed it “the third democracy in the world“, after India and the United States. On February 14, more than two hundred million Indonesians will elect their president. The event deserves close attention, because this Southeast Asian state is one of the emerging powers in the multipolar world.
It is not easy to build a democracy when you have Indonesia’s history and geography. Suharto’s dictatorship, which lasted 32 years and ended in 1998, was particularly brutal. An extraordinary film, The act of killinghe reconstructed the methods.
Since then, Indonesia has been in recovery and trying to move on. The two mandates of outgoing president Joko Widodo, which should have contributed to this, ended with an approval rating of 80 percent, an unprecedented fact. But his succession and role awaken old demons.
The favorite in the February 14 elections is the current defense minister Prabowo Subianto, a former general during the dictatorship and Suharto’s son-in-law. Its vice presidential candidate is the son of the outgoing president. A dynastic scent, in short, hovers over the vote.
The Indonesians seem to accept it, so much so that Subianto could even be elected in the first round, defeating his two opponents. But intellectuals and civil society are protesting a series of violations of democratic rules. Voters favor the continuity flaunted by the defense minister and the president’s son, and turn a blind eye to the most controversial aspects of their candidacy.
The reason is linked to the legacy left by the outgoing president: perceptible economic growth, a growing middle class and a country that has a significant impact on world balances. The secret of this success is the minerals fundamental for the energy transition, of which the Indonesian subsoil is very rich. Starting with nickel, essential for making batteries. Today Indonesia is the world‘s leading producer.
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More discreet than its Asian competitors, Indonesia is in effect an emerging country that aspires to become one of the world‘s top five economies within the next twenty years. Widodo has managed to attract Chinese and Western investors, skillfully navigating the choppy waters of Southeast Asia.
The world‘s largest Muslim country is also a fascinating case of how a large Asian state can take no sides in the Sino-American war. In fact, Jakarta remains independent from the United States (unlike the Philippines, which hosts American military bases) but also from Beijing, despite the high-speed train line between Jakarta and Bandung inaugurated last year: 352 kilometers of Chinese modernity within the framework of new silk road. In 1955 at the Bandung conference is born that movement of non-aligned countries that many today would like to see reborn.
Will this balance really be preserved even if the defense minister wins the elections? It is one of the great themes of this vote closely followed by Beijing and Washington.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)
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