This summer, the world is scorching hot, and associated disasters such as drought and fire also follow. Energy demand increases, while energy output such as hydropower and nuclear power decreases. Agriculture, fishery and animal husbandry are greatly affected by drought and fire. It is expected that There will be varying degrees of production cuts. As of August 14, the Central Meteorological Observatory has issued high temperature warnings for more than 20 consecutive days, of which the highest-level red warning has been issued for 3 consecutive days since the 12th.
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According to the National Climate Center, it is expected that the comprehensive intensity of high-temperature weather this year may reach the strongest level since complete records began in 1961, but the current regional high-temperature process has not surpassed that of 2013.
In addition, according to the road surface temperature forecast issued by the Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, when the surface temperature is too high in the high temperature sky from 10:30-17:00 on August 14, 2022, the rubber strength and cord strength of the tire will be greatly reduced, and the tire will be at risk of blowout! It is estimated that the surface temperature of the blue section on the map will reach 55-62°C on August 14, the surface temperature of the yellow section will reach 62-68°C, and the surface temperature of the orange section will reach 68-72°C.
In Europe, the World Meteorological Organization recently pointed out that July this year was included in the top three of the hottest July since meteorological records were recorded. Many parts of the world broke high temperature records, and many parts of Europe were affected by prolonged and intense heat waves.
// droughts and fires //
According to the Ministry of Water Resources, the water levels of the main stream of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake are 4.7-5.7 meters lower than the same period of the previous year, which are the lowest in the same period since the actual measurement record; the water storage of small reservoirs in some areas is seriously insufficient.
Li Guoying, deputy commander-in-chief of the National Defense General Administration and Minister of the Ministry of Water Resources, has discussed and judged the drought situation many times, and demanded to find out the water shortage situation in the drought area, scientifically dispatch the water conservancy projects, implement the drought relief plan and bottom-up measures, ensure the safety of drinking water for the masses, and ensure the drinking water for large livestock. Seasonal irrigation water requirements of crops.
The latest data from the European Drought Observatory (EDO) shows that in mid-to-late July, 47% of the EU was in a “warning” state, and 17% of the land entered the highest level of “alert” status due to drought.
About 6 percent of the western U.S. is in extreme drought, the highest drought warning level, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM). According to the definition of the US Drought Monitoring Agency, in this state, local crops and pastures are facing very large losses, as well as general water shortages.
According to data from the European Forest Fire Information System, more than 50,000 hectares of forests have been burned in France since the beginning of this year, which is more than three times the average level in the past decade. In addition, according to the report of the Portuguese Ministry of Emergency and Civil Protection on the 12th local time, as of that day, forest fires in central Portugal were still active. The fire, which started on August 6, has burned more than 14,000 hectares of land.
Italy’s Po River was hit by severe drought in early July, and the country’s government declared a state of emergency in five different regions.
High temperatures and wildfires have caused the water level of the Rhine River in Germany to drop significantly, and the river’s transport capacity is much lower than in previous years. The source of the Thames in the UK is drier than usual and has moved several kilometers downstream. Earlier, Yorkshire Water announced it would ban customers from using hoses to water gardens, wash cars or fill swimming pools from August 26.
Rivers in many parts of Europe have dried up, affecting the irrigation of crops along the banks. Because the rivers have dried up, or the water level has dropped significantly, there is no way to talk about the abundance of fish. Tons of dead fish have appeared in the Oder River, which flows along the border between Germany and Poland.
// High temperatures have the greatest impact on energy//
Guoyuan Securities believes that the impact of high temperature weather on energy is greater than the impact on food. The agency said that compared with the controllable food price risk, the additional power consumption demand driven by the heat wave is a further challenge to Europe’s fragile energy structure, and the short-term energy inflation situation is still difficult.
Last year, Europe set an ambitious target to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030.
However, after the global energy crisis, many European countries suspended their green transition plans, and the demand for traditional energy sources is higher. “Low flow” on many European rivers has also affected hydropower, and even nuclear power, because too little water is used for cooling. On the bright side, at least Germany has made some progress in renewable energy, with record solar panel power generation in the country, but not enough to offset declines in nuclear and hydropower.
Hot summer temperatures and soaring natural gas prices have driven demand for oil soaring, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly Oil Market Report, with global refinery output expected to rise in August to the highest level since January 2020. highest level.
The International Energy Agency said that raising its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2022 by 380,000 barrels per day, an increase of about 2%, will push demand to increase by 2.1 million barrels per day to 99.7 million barrels in 2022; and further increase in 2023 2.1 million bpd to 101.8 million bpd.
Guoyuan Securities believes that, on the whole, the disturbance of high temperature to inflation and industrial production is short-term and structural.Energy inflation overseas, especially in Europe, is more prominent than domestic contradictions; and in the inventory down cycle, the impact of domestic industrial production restrictions on electricity is likely to be marginally alleviated compared to last year.
In addition, the short-term nature of meteorological disasters does not conflict with the long-term nature of climate problems: on the one hand, high temperature weather is a seasonal factor after all, and its macroeconomic impact is more short-term, so short-term disturbances should not be overly considered in judging long-term trends factor.On the other hand, it is necessary to face up to the fact that climate change has gradually evolved into a normal macroeconomic background. Considering this dimension, future food security, energy security and energy transformation of various countries will have long-term strategic development significance.