The primaries in the United States begin on January 15th, the long electoral process that will end in the summer with the nomination of the parties’ candidates for the presidential elections on November 5th. The primaries will be held in all more than 50 US states and territories: starting Monday evening in Iowa, a Midwestern state, continuing in New Hampshire on January 23 and South Carolina the following day. At the moment the big favorites are incumbent president Joe Biden, for the Democrats, and former president Donald Trump, for the Republicans.
In the United States, primaries are mandatory. As for the Democratic party, in addition to Biden there are two other candidates: the writer and political activist Marianne Williamson and the deputy Dean Phillips. In reality there is no real competition, given that according to polls Biden has a clear advantage and has received the support of many well-known members of the party. Biden hasn’t even had a real election campaign for the primaries, but he is practically certain that he will win and challenge the Republican candidate in the presidential elections.
The focus is therefore entirely on the primaries of the Republican party. Throughout the election campaign Trump remained solidly favored, and according to the latest polls today he has over 60 percent of the vote at a national level. However, there are two other candidates who are being talked about a lot: the former governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, and the former governor of South Carolina and former ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley. For months DeSantis was considered Trump’s main opponent in the party, but his campaign was marred by several scandals and never really took off. On the contrary, Haley was able to consolidate her consensus and today she presents herself as the best and most credible alternative to Trump.
Two other candidates are also running, the entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and the former governor of Arkansas Asa Hutchinsonwhich however have never managed to establish themselves in the debate and attract a significant percentage of consensus.
– Read also: We’ll be hearing a lot about Nikki Haley
From a practical point of view, voting in primary elections can be carried out in two main ways. Most states (around 40 out of 50) organize “traditional” primary elections, i.e. a day during which voters can go to the polls and vote for the candidate they prefer with a process similar to the one we are used to in Italy . About ten states organize instead caucuswhere the vote is preceded by a series of debates and rallies.
Gods will be held in Iowa on Monday caucus: starting from 7pm local time (2am in Italy) citizens will be able to gather in the gyms, schools or bars of their constituency to discuss the candidates in the running and then cast a vote.
– Read also: A town hall caucus?
However, the situation is complicated by the cold wave that is affecting the eastern part of the United States: in recent days -51 °C have been reached, with strong winds and snowstorms that have caused the fall of trees and the death of at least two people. Visibility on the roads is very limited, and some areas remain without electricity. Deciding to go out on a frigid evening to attend a campaign event may be a difficult choice for many Iowans.
At the moment, according to polls, Trump enjoys 53 percent of the vote in Iowa, followed by Haley (18.7 percent) and DeSantis (15.8 percent). DeSantis has campaigned extensively in Iowa in recent weeks, holding hundreds of rallies in all 99 counties of the state, but it seems that he really failed to convince the local electorate. However, it is possible that unfavorable weather conditions could end up changing the results in an unexpected way.
As for the Republican Party, the results should arrive between Monday evening and Tuesday morning. The Democrats, on the other hand, will only organize rallies in Iowa, but the actual voting will take place by mail and the results will be announced on March 5th.
– Read also: The great cold and snowstorms in the United States