Reminder from FTChinese.com: If you are interested in the content of FTChinese.com, please search for “FTChinese.com” in the Apple App Store or Huawei App Store, download the official app of FTChinese.com, and pay for subscription. Happy using!
In a pluralistic society, popular opinion sets some limits on what foreign policy to advocate and uphold. In a highly interactive and complex interdependent international system, open-ended policies require public support on many issues.
– Barry Buzan
In the absence of shared values, there can be no consensus, rules and routines that inspire and celebrate honor.
—Richard Ned Lebow: A Cultural Theory of International Relations
In a war for “hearts and minds” rather than land and resources, justice becomes the key to victory. So, the Just War Theory has once again returned to its secular nature. I think this is the deepest reason why the just war theory has prevailed in the contemporary era: there is now a national reason to fight justly. You could almost say that justice became a military necessity.
—Michael Walzer: On War
The Romans had a motto: “The sound of a gun makes no sound”. In the era of social media, the battlefield environment has undergone fundamental changes, and “onlookers” have become one of the main forces that change the situation of war instead of just watching. The Russian-Ukrainian war was the first large-scale war in the era of social media, and the public opinion field was so directly involved in the war for the first time. The Russian-Ukrainian War has created so many “accidents”, which is enough to show that mainstream concepts and theories have lagged behind the development of the situation. When people start to lament that the Russian-Ukrainian war will end the process of globalization, it is also necessary to see that the power of globalization has penetrated into every aspect of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Judgments about the justice of war have been formed in the global public opinion field. War is no longer just a matter of professional soldiers and countries, but has become a “people-to-people struggle” between people.
In mainstream international relations theory, the state is the most important actor. The Russo-Ukrainian war saw a return to traditional warfare, large-scale state battles over territorial contention. But what needs to be seen is that in the Russian-Ukrainian war, the power of individuals and NGOs is growing rapidly. Except for the “grand concept” of the state or the international community, the power of individuals has become increasingly prominent. Theorists define “international society” as a state-centered interactive network, and “world society” as an individual-centered interactive network. The state is actually a “second-order organization” composed of individuals. In the case of relatively limited transportation and communication conditions, the participation of individuals in diplomacy is very limited, and the state is entrusted to handle it. As a result, a new trend has emerged: the “world society” with individuals as the main body and foundation has gained greater energy. From this perspective, the Russian-Ukrainian war, in addition to the “conventional” war between Russian and Ukrainian soldiers on the Ukrainian battlefield, and the economic war between Europe and the United States and Russia, there is also a war taking place in the emerging world social “field”. Although this war has not received enough attention, it represents the shape of future wars and is one of the “three major wars” that will ultimately determine the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war. In the “world society”, human words are more lethal than guns, because they represent the heart, the will, and the vision of the future order.
one
It has been more than a month since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war. On the Ukrainian battlefield, the Russian and Ukrainian armies have reached a stalemate, and the offensive and defensive situation has undergone subtle but significant changes. At the time of writing this article, seven Russian generals have been killed in battle. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the first phase of combat objectives have been achieved, and the next phase will focus on the Donbas region. The Ukrainian military carried out small-scale counteroffensives in Kyiv, Kharkov and other places, and recaptured Nikolayev on the north coast of the Black Sea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on people around the world to take to the streets on March 24 for anti-war demonstrations. Zelensky himself delivered a video speech in parliaments of many countries, and the famous words were endless. Zelensky has become the most popular politician on the world political stage. The president, who is famous for “playing” the president, has already performed exceptionally well and has become a global “Internet celebrity”. Imagine that without the internet, without social media, without the infrastructure for videoconferencing, President Zelensky would have no stage. The fundamental reason is that the “world society” has been formed and the “foundation” of sovereign states has undergone tremendous changes. Only countries that are fully “world socialized” can draw on the power of the “world society”. Under Zelensky’s leadership, Ukraine has been deeply embedded in the “world society”, while Russia has “decoupled” from the “world society”. Therefore, in the third battlefield of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ukraine has formed a Overwhelming situation. The truth is not within the range of the cannon, on the contrary, outside the range of the truth, the cannon will misfire. Clausewitz pays a lot of attention to the power of the mind in A Treatise on War, and the power of the mind is difficult to quantify or even detect. It is only in the course of war that spiritual forces can be stimulated, such as the will of the commander, the quality of the government, or the morale of the army.
First, President Zelensky is a “leader” in the “world society” and a super-influencer on social media. After the rise of social media, so-called “opinion leaders” have attracted much attention, and after the new crown epidemic, live streaming shows the power of individuals. In analogy, Zelensky was a super-influencer on the battlefield of the “world society” of the Russian-Ukrainian war. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Zelensky, who was not favored, may have also experienced struggles, but after rejecting the “hitchhiker” offered by the United States to continue serving as the “exile president”, Zelensky’s inner “Churchill” was rejected. activated. A more favorable condition than Churchill was that Churchill could only make his voice through the radio, while Zelensky made his own “presence” through video. President Zelensky has successfully created his image of “unyielding”, the bravery of the commander-in-chief. He is not a front-line commander, nor does he even understand war, but it is enough for him to pass on his unyielding will to the Ukrainians. A large number of Ukrainians returned to the country to join the army and defend their homeland. This is Zelensky’s greatest virtue as a commander. The United States and other countries initially compared Zelensky to Ghani in Afghanistan. It can be said that Zelensky is the biggest variable in the Russian-Ukrainian war. If he abandoned the city and fled, or even fled with money, Ukraine would be in a completely different state. And his “presence” reversed the situation on the battlefield. If he is not present, it is impossible for Europe and the United States to provide military assistance. The reason is very realistic. No amount of weapons will automatically resist the attack of the Russian army, and will eventually collapse without a fight like the Ghani government in Afghanistan. Zelensky has become a symbol and symbol of the Ukrainian state, and his “presence” and swiping in the world public opinion field has ensured that Ukraine “will not leave.” In the age of social media, where attention is scarce, Zelensky assured Ukraine’s “presence” on the field of public opinion. In contrast, Russian President Vladimir Putin is almost absent, and the few “appearances” are quite suspicious. More importantly, Putin is completely out of the “theatre” of social media. He relied on long televised speeches, rally speeches, and traditional “secret diplomacy.” Obviously, Russia has become an “isolated island” in the “world society”.
Second, the “world society” and the state are a process of mutual construction. The Ukrainian government reshaped the “world society” during the war, and the government and the “world society” were nested within each other. In a sense, this is a reconstruction of the Ukrainian state. A major danger posed by the Russian raids, especially the siege of the capital, Kyiv, is the survival of the Ukrainian government: surrender, or switch to a wartime government? In hindsight, within four days of the war, the Ukrainian government completed a magnificent transformation, occupying the commanding heights of the “world society”. Zelensky’s high-profile performance on social media is just one aspect. What is talked about is the “blitzkrieg” against Russia on the battlefield of social media by Zelensky-appointed Deputy Prime Minister Fedorov. For four days, all Russian state media “silenced” on Meta, YouTube and Apple-owned products. In addition to this, the Ukrainian government has raised tens of millions of dollars in a short period of time and has assembled a “hacking force”. In the course of the subsequent war, there seems to be no cyber war between Russia and Ukraine, one of the reasons is that the Russian Internet has become a local area network. Represented by Fedorov, Ukrainian government officials have adapted to the social media battlefield and are playing at home. Another example is very representative. Ukraine’s anti-corruption chief Novikov sent a “thank you letter” to Russian Defense Minister Shoigu, the core content of which was to thank Shoigu for corruption. The letter listed various corruption risks in Russian military equipment, such as using cardboard body armor, etc. The letter went viral on social media, and was a “crit” to Shoigu and the Russian army’s reputation. The Russian army has always been considered the second in the world, but its performance in the war is staggering. What is the reason? The Russian military reform led by Shoigu is more like a spoils-sharing event. This letter is tantamount to the “beheading” operation against Shoigu. After more than ten days, Shoigu has not appeared, and his whereabouts have become the focus of media attention.
Third, the definition of the nature of the Russian-Ukrainian war is the focus of this war. Strangely, both Russia and Ukraine invoked Article 51 of the UN Charter to wage war in the name of self-defense. Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations states: Nothing in this Charter shall be deemed to prohibit the exercise of the natural right of individual or collective self-defence when any Member of the United Nations is attacked by force, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Self-defense is the “natural right” of states. Was the attack on Ukraine by the Russian army across the Russian-Ukrainian border on February 24 aggression or self-defense? Of course, if there is no social media and no Internet, how to define the nature of war may be a question for future academic research. However, the Russian-Ukrainian war was broadcast live, not the entry of Ukrainian troops into Russia, but the opposite. Of course, Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, where it is difficult to define whether Russia has invaded Ukraine. However, the so-called “special military operation” launched by Russia during its rotating presidency of the Security Council and the Winter Paralympics has not only impacted the basic principles of the UN Charter, but also shaken the authority of the UN. “. The UN General Assembly held an emergency special session that, although not mandatory, expressed the views of UN member states. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called on Russia to end the militarily impossible and politically absurd war. It is true that the emergency special session of the UN General Assembly has no coercive force and possibility of execution, but it is a mobilization of international public opinion and a judgment on the justice and injustice of war.
Fourth, in the “world society”, individuals and other non-state actors have a strong ability to act, and after the Russian-Ukrainian war was characterized in the “world society”, Russia faced the direct consequence of being kicked by the “world society” Going out, the big Russian financial institution being kicked out of SWIFT is just one manifestation of it. From an economic point of view, Russia is only a “semi-globalized” country, not fully integrated into the world economic system, but excluded from the “world society”, which has a huge impact on Russia. Biden used a highly derogatory term after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, calling Russia a “untouchable”. From the national level or the international system level, this is difficult to do, but from the perspective of “world society”, within a month of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia has become a “different kind”, just like in interpersonal society, a person is isolated in Outside the interpersonal network, or to use the now popular concept, “social death”. Humans are social animals, it is human nature to be social, and connection is one of the driving forces of socialization. The “world society” is actually formed by interpersonal connections. Russia has become an outlier in the “world society” because of the Russian-Ukrainian war. In addition to a series of sanctions against Russia by Western countries, the “world community” is also “disconnected” from Russia. This shock will not end with the Russian-Ukrainian war. Hundreds of foreign companies withdrew from Russia, most notably McDonald’s. McDonald’s was once synonymous with globalization, representing a trend toward the globalization of everyday life. Do you want to say that eating McDonald’s has a substantial impact? Probably not. There is no difference between eating a hamburger and eating a big leba, but McDonald’s represents the common “life experience” of the “world society”. One can see the whole leopard, even McDonald’s has to withdraw, not to mention other companies. The Ukrainian government notified the German company Bosch on the Internet that they had found parts produced by Bosch in a Russian infantry fighting vehicle. Bosch immediately issued a statement saying it would launch a “comprehensive review” while arguing that Bosch did not directly supply any parts to Russian vehicle manufacturers. The energy export, which is an important “killer” of Russia, is also greatly offset in the “world society”. The U.S. now faces severe inflation, and a ban on Russian crude imports would push oil prices even higher. But 77 percent of U.S. respondents said they would rather bear high oil prices than import Russian oil. Between interest and morality, interest becomes the cost of morality. What needs more attention is that the Swiss bank has historically froze the funds of Russian customers. Russia has more than 200 billion US dollars in deposits in the Swiss banking system, and the Swiss bank has frozen more than 6 billion US dollars. The problem is not how much is frozen, but the bank. Such a “relapse” did not cause a strong backlash. The rationale was to cut off Russian war funding. In order to “punish” Russia, the Swiss banks could change their own rules. Whether this will damage the Swiss bank’s credibility depends largely on how the “world community” sees it. The economic and financial exchanges, trade, technology and other channels between Russia and the world have been cut off, and even the credit card system has been cut off.
In contrast, Ukrainians face the disaster of “destruction of the country”, but they may find that there is a “world society” for it. Millions of Ukrainian refugees poured into Europe, but European countries “welcomed” their arrival. What is particularly concerning is that those Eastern European countries that strongly reject refugees, such as Poland and Hungary, have not built refugee camps, but brought Ukrainian refugees into their own homes. The global folk rental platform Airbnb has become a “dominant presence” in the world society. People in more than 160 countries have signed up through the platform to welcome Ukrainians into their homes, and Ukrainian landlords have received unexpected orders, even though their homes are in ruins. Many people book rooms on Airbnb where Ukrainians have been reduced to ruins, and the room fee is a donation and moral support for Ukrainians. It is conceivable that millions of Ukrainians went to Europe and other parts of the world, and what happened to every Ukrainian was an anti-war grief. The Russian-Ukrainian war made Ukrainians “flee” to Europe, and further confirmed Ukraine’s European identity. Zelensky and European politicians have regarded this war as a war to defend European freedom. The reconstruction of Ukraine in the future will inevitably depend on Europe, and Ukrainians who have fled to Europe will also return home. Ukraine will be rebuilt on the basis of “world society”, and Ukraine at that time will be a highly “world society” country.
Fifth, Russia’s “disconnection” is also reflected in the exodus of Russians. Former Russian President and Vice Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council Medvedev recently emphasized in an interview with the media that Russia is a member of Europe, and it is not Russia that draws a line with Europe, but Europe and Russia draw a line. Medvedev’s emphasis on Russia’s European identity lies behind the identity and status that Russian elites have been pursuing for centuries. Since Peter I, Russia has wanted to join the European club and get the corresponding status and dignity, and the Russian elite is highly connected to European society. After the Russian-Ukrainian War, European countries imposed sanctions on Russian political and business elites not only at the economic and financial level, but also at the level of identity. And old Russian politicians like Chubais also take the initiative to “cut” with Russia when they go to the country. In other words, the elements of Russia’s “world socialization” are actively or passively “disconnecting” with Russia. For Russia, this kind of damage will be a serious internal injury.
two
In mainstream international relations theory, “world society” is an anachronistic concept. Concepts like geopolitics, big chess games, and nuclear weapons obscured the individual, while the Russian-Ukrainian war brought to the surface an increasingly powerful “world society.” The seemingly empty concepts of morality, morality, justice, honor, etc. have gained more and more power. The “world society” did not weaken the power of the state. On the contrary, it reconstructed the state and further clarified the nature of the state as a collective of citizens. The strength of the individual also empowers the state. For example, when Musk “attacks” President Putin, is one person challenging one country? Not so, but the regulation of a country by the growing “world society”. Similarly, the reason why Zelensky was able to speak “for help” is that the rising “world society” has formed a view on just war. Zelensky and Ukraine have received a steady stream of resources from the “good name” of the “world society”, which is Ukraine’s “background.”
First, the rise of the Internet, especially self-media, has laid a hardware foundation for the “world society”, and the ideal of a “global village” has been first realized on social media platforms. Society is the connection and interaction between individuals. The Internet has eliminated “distance”, and with the wide application of translation software, the communication between people has crossed the barriers of language and distance. “Interaction. Everyone has the potential to be followed, and everyone is being followed, and in the age of social media, “overnight popularity” is the norm. Of course, “falling off the altar” happens every day.
Second, emotional factors play an important role in the “world society”. In the field of public opinion, emotional resonance is the norm, and moral judgment overwhelms rational calculation. The emotional forces imprisoned by the rationalism that has arisen since the Enlightenment are unleashed. Theories and concepts based on rational calculation have been difficult to understand the current world. It is not that these theories or concepts are outdated, but the logic of the world has changed. No one would have thought that Zelensky had a Churchill deep within himself, perhaps he didn’t realize it himself, but at some critical point, inspired by chance, he created the ideal wartime presidential role, and this role made A new plot emerged and a strong theater effect was formed. Zelensky’s sense of honor and patriotism activated the Ukrainians. Putin’s miscalculation is not necessarily just inaccurate intelligence, but that he has “connected” with the rapidly changing world, and he is surrounded by and in contact with an old world, such as Biden. The war has reached an impasse, and Zelensky has repeatedly shouted to Putin that he can sit down and talk, but he has received no response from Putin. This is not just a meeting of two people, but a collision of two worlds.
The spiritual element that Clausewitz discusses in “On War” has spread to “world society”. The battlefield has been magnified, and it is not just the intensity of strength that determines the success or failure of wars, but also flexibility and resilience. Zelensky and Ukraine are fully in the position of the weak, and asking for help and recourse does not harm the position and power of the weak, but instead becomes an advantage. And if Russia and Putin show a little weak signal, their long-established strong image will collapse. Russia’s power is rigid and fragile, and the power of its power lies in the ability to cause harm; while Zelensky and Ukraine are flexible and fragile, and power comes from the ability to endure harm. There is a saying in China that the people are not afraid of death, but how can they be afraid of death. When the weaker side is fighting for life, the logic of power changes. Of course, under the “onlookers” of the “world society”, fighting for honor has become no choice. The goals of the Russian army’s initial blitz included changing the Ukrainian government and fostering a pro-Russian regime, but in the “world society” Next, who wants and who can establish such a regime? On the contrary, under the drive and supervision of honor, courage was inspired. In addition to the Ukrainians who returned to fight in the war, there were also retired or reservists from many countries. Of course, this kind of sentiment also exists in the Russian army. Although the Russian army occupying Kherson is armed, it keeps shrinking in front of the unarmed Ukrainian people, instead of shooting and killing civilians. This is also the sense of honor of professional soldiers. .
Third, the logic of political power in the “world society” has been broken, and the Russian-Ukrainian war is a new example. Since the election of Trump and the impeachment of Park Geun-hye in 2016, empathy and identity have transcended political commitment. In other words, being there is more important than vision. Trump showed his “presence” with his constituents by tweeting every day. The election of Zelensky and the formation of the team itself are different from the past, the hierarchy of power has been flattened, and risk sharing has become a source of power and legitimacy.
Fourth, “world society” does not mean that human society has entered a beautiful era of justice. On the contrary, it may bring more conflicts and contradictions, because human beings have been organized in the form of small communities during tens of thousands of years of evolution. Existence, fiery emotions are highly exclusive and oppressive, “not my race, their hearts must be different”. During the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Western world was united like never before, but it should be noted that the general welcome of Ukrainian refugees in Europe does not mean that they do not exclude refugees from other countries, just because Ukrainians are Christians and Europeans, in other words is “one’s own”. Russia has been classified as an alternative, the opposite of civilization, that is, “savage”. This has brought about a clash of civilizations. In addition, Russia has invoked the Chechen army and Syria’s “volunteer army”, which further exacerbated this clash of civilizations. It is the line between civilization and barbarism, or, more popularly, liberty and despotism, that allows the West’s economic war against Russia to break the rules, including the aforementioned perversion of the Swiss bank.
The “world society” has become an objective reality, which has caused the “crustal movement” of the international order. After the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the “world society” will further reshape the post-war international order. In the “world society”, emotional power and good reputation have become more and more important, and various organizations such as individuals, enterprises, and countries will inevitably undergo the forging and reorganization of the “world society”. Empathy and empathy will be an important force in shaping identity. Emotions, interests and security will be superimposed on each other, and even the boundaries will be redrawn. In the possible future trends, there may appear to be doing business with a sword, not talking to strangers, etc. The return of the phenomenon. How to integrate the value alliance and civilization alliance with the globalized industrial chain and supply chain in the “world society” will be a persistent problem. It needs to be acknowledged that globalization has brought about an increase in benefits, but it has not solved the emotional needs of human beings, let alone the desire for fairness and justice in human nature. In the Russian-Ukrainian war, we can see that people, for the sake of morality and values, are Tolerable loss of profit. Of course, there are limits. Ukrainian refugees who go to Europe will eventually return to Ukraine, making it difficult to integrate into European society. Globalization is making the cake bigger, and the “world society” is pursuing a better community. Community-based globalization or a globalized community is the way of the future. Only when there is a “feeling” of a shared destiny can we open up psychological boundaries, share and jointly build an interconnected network, and build a super community in the era of globalization.
(Note: Sun Xingjie, Deputy Director and Professor of the Institute of International Relations of Jilin University. This article only represents the author’s personal views. Editor-in-charge email [email protected])