The world population will reach 8 billion by 2022!Seven trends in China’s population
2022-07-13 10:47:23Source: China News Network
China-Singapore Finance reporter Li Jinlei
According to the latest round of global population estimates and forecasts by the United Nations, the world population will reach 8 billion in 2022 and peak at around 10.4 billion in 2080. India’s population will surpass China’s by 2023. So, what is the trend of China’s population change?
On July 12, the China Population and Development Research Center, the United Nations Population Division and the United Nations Population Fund Representative Office in China jointly held the “World and China Population Outlook Data Release and Low Birth Response Seminar”. The China Population and Development Research Center introduced the The main results of China’s “14th Five-Year Plan” and mid- and long-term population change trend predictions, seven trends of China’s population change are analyzed.
Trend 1: The population of 1.4 billion has zero growth, striving to achieve modernization with a huge population.
The total population of mainland China exceeded 1.4 billion in 2017 and 1.412 billion in 2020. The “14th Five-Year Plan” and the medium and long-term total population will experience zero growth and negative growth one after another. It will be around 1.4 billion people by 2035. Population is the fundamental factor for my country’s development potential and resilience. The United Nations predicts that India’s total population will surpass China’s by 2023. However, China’s urbanization level, labor force quality, and per capita output are all higher than India’s.
Trend 2: The birth population has reached a plateau of 10 million, and the realization of a moderate fertility level should be actively promoted.
China’s annual birth population will drop from 12.02 million in 2020 to 10.62 million in 2021. During the “14th Five-Year Plan” and the mid- to long-term implementation of active fertility support measures to promote fertility friendliness, the number of births will fluctuate around 10 million by 2035 and beyond.
Trend 3: The working-age population is more than 900 million, and the quality is improved, and there is huge room for new dividends of human capital.
China’s working-age population aged 15-64 will be 968 million in 2020 and more than 900 million in 2035, 150 million more than the current European population and 2.7 times the current total population of the United States. The level of education continues to improve, and there is huge potential for new dividends in tapping human capital.
Trend 4: The elderly population will exceed 400 million, and the proportion of young elderly people will be high. There is great potential to tap the human resources of the elderly.
The number of elderly people aged 60 and above will be 264 million in 2020, 321 million in 2025, and 400 million in 2032. The number of elderly people aged 65 and over will be 191 million in 2020, 221 million in 2025, and 300 million in 2033. Young people aged 60-64 will be 68 million in 2020, exceed 100 million in 2026, and reach 106 million in 2035. There is a huge potential to tap the human resources of the elderly.
Trend 5: The elderly will double, actively respond to the aging of the population, and promote the health of the elderly.
There are 35.7 million elderly people aged 80 and above in China in 2020. More than double to 79.6 million in 2035. The number of disabled and semi-disabled elderly people is growing continuously. Only by paying attention to the factors affecting the health of the elderly and continuously improving the health level of the elderly can we actively respond to the aging of the population.
Trend 6: The old-age dependency ratio drives the rapid rise of the total dependency ratio. It is necessary to continuously improve old-age security and promote intergenerational balance.
The working-age population is decreasing, the elderly population continues to rise, and the old-age dependency ratio (15-59 years = 100): 30 in 2020, 54 in 2035, and 82 in 2050. Total dependency ratio (15-59 years = 100): 58 in 2020, 73 in 2035, and 106 in 2050. In 2050, 100 working-age people will support 106 children and elderly people. To achieve high-quality development, it is urgent to reform and improve the “one old and one small” security system to promote intergenerational balance.
Trend 7: There will be more than 1 billion people living in cities and towns, and the spatial agglomeration of the population will form a new driving force for growth.
The population living in cities and towns is 900 million in 2020 and will grow to 1.023 billion in 2035. Cities and urban agglomerations will gather more population, and population agglomeration will coexist with shrinking areas. Optimizing the allocation of population and space resources and promoting coordinated regional development can form new economic growth poles.
According to the China Population and Development Research Center, China’s population is huge, and the health level and quality of the population are constantly improving. There is still much room for further optimizing the allocation of population and space resources, increasing scientific and technological innovation, and tapping the potential of the population to support economic development. Promoting the two-way adaptation and dynamic balance of population development and economic and social development can create a favorable population environment for the 1.4 billion population to move towards a future of high-quality development and to realize the modernization of a huge population.