| On the 9th, in Moscow, Russia, a T-34-85 tank participated in the Victory Day military parade held on Red Square to commemorate the 78th anniversary of the end of World War II. Photo courtesy of Visual China |
Yangcheng Evening News Weekend Special Writer, Zhihu Columnist Er Yuewu
In a sense, like the drones appearing above the Kremlin, the tank appearing on Red Square has also aroused public speculation.
On May 9, Russia held a military parade to commemorate the 78th anniversary of the victory of the Great Patriotic War in Moscow’s Red Square. For the first time, the most representative tank “Torrent” of the Russian army disappeared, and only a commemorative World War II T34 tank was arranged.
We are still not sure whether this is a sign of the weakening of the Russian military’s strength, as the outside world speculates, or a smokescreen deliberately arranged by Russia. However, the relative silence on the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine gives people some expectations for the possibility of peace.
“Low-key” military parade
This year’s Red Square military parade may be the most low-key one among the previous military parades commemorating the victory of the Great Patriotic War. The number of soldiers participating in the military parade was only about 8,000, and there were only more than 100 pieces of weapons and equipment. If we say that a grand military parade is a manifestation of military power and national strength. Then, an unexpectedly low-key military parade will inevitably be interpreted negatively.
The Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for one year and three months. Ukraine unilaterally announced that nearly 200,000 Russian soldiers were killed and more than 3,700 tanks were destroyed. The authenticity of this figure cannot be verified. However, judging from the military parade, the number of battlefield losses of Russian military equipment may not be optimistic.
What makes Russia even less optimistic is the front line. In order to pay tribute to the military parade on May 9, as early as a few months ago, the Russian army began to launch a 24-hour uninterrupted onslaught on the most representative battlefield-Bahmut. However, the Russian army failed to capture Bahmut in the end. The Ukrainian army stated that it launched a counteroffensive on May 10, defeated the 72nd Russian Motorized Brigade, and regained control of a combat area 3 kilometers wide and 2.6 kilometers deep. If the news is true, it means that the two-month hard work of Wagner’s mercenaries has been destroyed, the Ukrainian army has regained control of 25% of the urban area, and the front has returned to the situation in early April.
Bakhmut is a small town with only 41.6 square kilometers and a population of 70,000 before the war. It has no decisive strategic significance. Even if it is captured by the Russian army, it will not change the situation of the battle. However, this small town already carries the dignity of Russia. Russia has invested 15 combat brigades here, fired more than 5,000 tons of ammunition every day, and exhausted all means to continue its onslaught for nearly a year, paying huge casualties, but still unable to attack for a long time.
“Break appointment” counterattack
On the other hand, Ukraine’s delayed counterattack did not go well.
According to the information released by the United States, 98% of NATO’s military aid to Ukraine has been put in place, and Zelensky has repeatedly stated that he will counterattack. In Zaporozhye, the Ukrainian army assembled 70,000 elite troops. A large-scale swearing-in meeting was held in early May, and the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Zaluzhny was present in person. However, the planned major counteroffensive has not been launched for a long time.
On the one hand, there is a problem with the mutual trust between the United States and Ukraine. In April, the U.S. Department of Defense leaked secrets, and U.S. assessments of Ukrainian military operations and battlefield analysis were posted on the Internet, reflecting the carelessness of U.S. military intelligence management and causing trust issues in the follow-up intelligence cooperation between Ukraine and the U.S. military. Assuming that Ukraine has formulated a detailed counterattack plan before, from a common sense, even if there is no sign of the plan being leaked, Ukraine will remake the plan for safety reasons, which will take a long time.
On the other hand, the Russian army’s defense line is very strong, and it is difficult for the Ukrainian army to break through with existing equipment. The Russian army strengthened its defense across the board. In Zaporozhye, the focus of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, three lines of defense of nearly 120 kilometers were built. Each line of defense included 4 trenches and barbed wire, as well as concrete triangle cones to prevent tanks from attacking. Even if Ukraine receives a large number of tanks aided by the West, if it attacks such a strong line of defense according to the conventional ground attack method, it will definitely suffer heavy losses. A more feasible way is to use fighter jets, missiles, and drones to attack the Russian army’s logistics supply bases and routes. However, the promise of the West to aid Ukraine’s F-16 fighter jets has not been fulfilled for a long time. The range and quantity of the aided missiles are too small to cause a devastating blow to the Russian military’s logistics. Coupled with the insufficient production capacity of shells in the West and the insufficient number of shells to aid Ukraine, the Ukrainian army launched a counterattack, making it difficult to guarantee the continuity of firepower.
Therefore, Ukraine can only fight a World War I-style trench warfare with Russia at present.
possibility of peace
When both Russia and Ukraine are in trouble, it is precisely when the conditions for peace negotiations are met.
During the more than a year of the war, the expectations of both sides were too high. The interests of both sides were a zero-sum game, and there was no possibility of negotiation. At this stage, there are indications that both Putin and Zelensky may begin to look forward to peace as soon as possible.
On April 26, Chinese state leaders had a phone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Chinese side once again reiterated its stance on promoting peace and talks on the Ukraine crisis, and proposed substantive mediation measures. It will send a special representative of the Chinese government on Eurasian affairs to visit Ukraine and other countries to conduct in-depth communication with all parties on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis. Zelensky said that China is welcome to play an important role in restoring peace and resolving the crisis through diplomatic means.
After China successfully brokered a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Beijing, peace lovers have high hopes for China’s mediation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
However, there are many difficulties in resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the prospect remains uncertain. According to statistics on wars since 1946 by the CSIS strategic think tank in the United States, 26% of wars between countries ended in less than 30 days, and another 25% of wars ended in less than a year. While wars lasted more than a year, they mostly extended to more than a decade, and there were sporadic conflicts later. This means that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has lasted for a year and three months, requires creative solutions. Otherwise, it is very likely that a long-term war will form. It is expected that the two sides can jump out of the zero-sum game, find common interests, and form a creative case for human beings to peacefully resolve regional conflicts.Return to Sohu to see more
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