This is not the usual story. This time the tension caused by Kim Jong-un’s missile escalation seems difficult to ease. Even more so than in 2017, when Pyongyang carried out the last nuclear tests which however led the supreme leader to sit around a table with Donald Trump. Beyond the little or no long-term results, those two summits blocked the ongoing spiral. All this, however, also and above all happened thanks to two elements: the relations sent between the USA and China in the first half of Trump’s mandate and the predisposition to dialogue in Seoul. The former president Moon Jae-in, in fact, had set the restart of the intra-Korean dialogue as the highest goal of his administration.
Now, however, these two elements are completely absent. Washington and Beijing are at loggerheads over a myriad of dossiers, starting with Taiwan and technology. And in Seoul there is no longer a progressive leader, but since last March the president has been Yoon Suk-yeol. Traditionally, conservatives in South Korea have taken a tougher line towards Pyongyang. This implies a rapprochement with the US and a move away from China in foreign policy.
In short, the conditions seem to be lacking to favor a de-escalation. Unsurprisingly, Seoul’s tough response to Pyongyang’s latest ballistic launches. Certainly the circumstance called for a strong response, given that for the first time since 1945 a rocket fired from the north ended up in the territorial waters of the south. Not far from the coast, enough to sound the raid alarm in some South Korean islands. On the other hand, Yoon’s line is indeed very different from Moon’s. Suffice it to say that last February, during the presidential electoral campaign, Yoon had opened the possibility of “preemptive raids” against North Korea in case they were necessary to preserve national security. Since he took office, Yoon has partially blunted the rhetoric but with his actions he has shown that he is ready for the back and forth. Already after the launch of the ballistic missiles over Japan he had responded with rocket launches. And he has intensified joint exercises in recent weeks, both the bilateral ones with the US and the trilateral ones with the participation of Tokyo as well.
Then there is also a last, more internal and contingent element, for which Yoon could be led to give an assertive answer to Pyongyang. The Halloween massacre in Itaewon is putting pressure on his administration. The lack of security on the site was much criticized, despite the fact that the police had received several alarm calls before more than 150 very young people died crushed in the crowd.
The opposition is demanding the resignation of the Minister of the Interior who had declared that even a greater police presence would not have prevented the tragedy, only to apologize. Recalling that the other great disaster in South Korea’s recent history (the Sewol ferry wreck) was one of the ingredients of the mass protests against then-President Park, Yoon knows that this is a very delicate moment for his political future. . And Kim’s missiles “allow” at least in part to shift attention to the threat north of the demilitarized zone. An increasingly looming threat, given that many believe the first nuclear test after 5 years at the turn of the US Midterm on November 8 is likely. The concern is high, because internal and external circumstances do not seem to favor the resumption of dialogue.