(Original title: Out of control? The US epidemic “bursts”, Biden made an emergency statement! Two major pharmaceutical companies suddenly raised vaccine prices, Delta became the largest black swan, and investment logic changed dramatically)
Delta mutant strains have spread wildly, and the global epidemic seems to be getting worse.
Let’s first look at the United States. Recently, the number of newly diagnosed cases in a single day has exceeded 100,000, and the number of confirmed cases in 90% of the United States is rising. American experts predict that in the next 4-6 weeks, the number of new coronary cases in the United States may reach 200,000 again. US President Biden issued an emergency statement calling on all Americans to wear masks in public indoor places and get the new crown vaccine as soon as possible.
The current focus of global attention, since July, there have been 264 confirmed cases of Olympic-related personnel. The epidemic in Japan is even more dangerous, with more than 10,000 newly confirmed cases on August 1, and more than 10,000 people infected in a single day for four consecutive days. Nobuhiko Okabe, head of the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee’s New Crown Countermeasures Expert Meeting, said that when the surge in confirmed cases of the new crown puts pressure on the medical system, it is necessary to consider terminating the Tokyo Olympics and abandoning the Tokyo Paralympic Games.
It is worth noting that the domestic epidemic situation has suddenly become complicated. Since July 20, Nanjing has reported a total of 215 confirmed cases, and multiple clusters of epidemics have been discovered. The epidemic transmission chain has spread to 15 provinces and 31 cities, triggering The strain of this epidemic is also Delta.
Faced with the sudden increase and recurrence of the international epidemic, the capital market’s investment logic in the anti-epidemic sector has once again “corrected”. The epidemic may not be a one-time “consumption”. A lot of funds have begun to flood into vaccines, new crown testing, masks and other sectors. The price increase of vaccines is also expected to heat up. In the latest EU supply contract, Pfizer has increased the price of its Covid-19 vaccine by more than 25%, and the price of Moderna has increased by more than 10%. It will provide a total of 2.1 billion by 2023. Support vaccine.
The US epidemic is out of control again?
The new crown epidemic has once again made the United States nervous.
The faster-spreading mutant strain of Delta is spreading rapidly throughout the United States. Data released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on July 31 showed that 101,171 new confirmed cases of new crowns were reported across the United States on the 30th, the highest single-day increase since February 7 this year. Among them, the delta mutant strain caused New infection cases accounted for more than 80%.
Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States show that the number of confirmed cases of new crowns in nearly 90% of the United States is currently on the rise, and key indicators such as newly confirmed cases, hospitalized cases, and deaths have rebounded sharply, causing widespread concern and concern. According to Tom Frieden, the former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the spread of the “Delta” mutant new crown virus, coupled with less than expected vaccination, in the next 4-6 weeks, the number of new crown cases in the United States may reach 20 again. Million cases.
The latest statistics from Johns Hopkins University show that the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 35 million, reaching 35,002,148, including 613,224 deaths. According to the Associated Press, on August 1, local time, Anthony Fauci, the top US infectious disease expert, said in an interview with US media that as the number of confirmed cases caused by the delta mutant strain increases, the US may experience “difficulties.” The way to avoid the continued deterioration of the epidemic is for more people to receive the new crown vaccine as soon as possible.
Analysts believe that the main reasons for the resurgence of the epidemic in the United States are as follows:
First, the vaccination rate is insufficient. Recently, while the delta strain has accelerated its spread, the progress of the new crown vaccination in the United States has been slowing down. According to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website, as of the 31st, about 190 million people in the United States have completed a dose of vaccination, accounting for 57.5% of the total population of the United States; about 163 million people have completed the vaccination, accounting for 49.1% of the total population.
Second, the delta mutant strain is highly infectious and aggressive, but the United States has prematurely relaxed the epidemic prevention measures such as wearing masks in public and maintaining social distance. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued epidemic prevention guidelines in May and no longer recommends that people who have completed the new crown vaccination must wear masks when participating in indoor and outdoor activities.
Finally, the US epidemic is still deeply mired in a “political quagmire.” The serious differences between the US Democratic and Republican parties on the vaccine issue have not been eliminated. This has led to a continuous decline in the willingness of many people to vaccinate, and the vaccination rate has fallen far short of expectations.
Fauci said that the United States needs to achieve a 75% vaccination rate to achieve “herd immunity” and control the epidemic. However, based on the existing vaccination data and research reports, it is difficult to exceed 60% in the US vaccination rate before autumn, and the vaccine coverage rate is far from reaching the 75% target required for “herd immunity”.
Minsheng Securities Li Feng believes that the United States’ “herd immunity” program has failed, and the number of new diagnoses in Europe and the United States each day in autumn and winter may exceed 100,000. At that time, the United States and the United States may adopt economic blockade again, and the prospects for economic recovery will be frustrated. The real interest rate of Treasury bonds gradually fell, from -0.7% to -1.127%, a record low. Inflation expectations have also ushered in an inflection point, falling from around 2.5% to around 2.3%, and the probability that US liquidity will continue to remain loose has increased.
Olympic crisis, Japan’s epidemic breaks record
Compared with the epidemic in the United States, the current focus of global attention is the development trend of the epidemic in Japan’s Tokyo Olympics. According to a report from Japan’s “Asahi Shimbun” on August 1, the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee announced on the same day that there were 18 new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia by Olympic-related personnel, of which one was an Olympic athlete. Since July 1, there have been 264 confirmed cases of Olympic-related personnel, including 24 athletes.
While the Olympics are underway, the Tokyo epidemic is even more dangerous. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government announced on July 31 that 4,058 new confirmed cases of new crown in Tokyo that day, not only hitting a record high, but also the first single day in more than a year since the outbreak of the epidemic exceeded 4,000. example. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced on the same day that the epidemic in the metropolitan area is spreading at an unprecedented rate, and the more contagious delta strain is spreading rapidly. The three counties in the capital area of Yexian County and Osaka Prefecture are from August 2 to August 31.
Faced with the violent spread of the epidemic, Okabe Nobuhiko, head of the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee’s New Crown Countermeasures Expert Meeting, said that when the surge in confirmed cases of the new crown puts pressure on the medical system, it is necessary to consider terminating the Tokyo Olympics and abandoning the Tokyo Paralympic Games. It has not reached the stage of “putting a lot of pressure on the medical system”.
At the same time, the epidemic situation in Japan is spreading rapidly. According to the Kyodo News Agency of Japan, Japan has newly confirmed more than 10,000 cases on August 1, and the number of infections in a single day has exceeded 10,000 for four consecutive days. Specifically, there are 3,058 people in Tokyo, 1,258 people in Kanagawa, 899 people in Saitama, 890 people in Osaka, and 767 people in Chiba. The spread of the epidemic in various places led by the metropolitan area is unabated.
In the face of the rapidly spreading epidemic, the Japanese government is considering making the surrounding areas of Tokyo enter a state of emergency. Experts warn that the more contagious delta virus may cause the epidemic to worsen.
Kenji Shibuya, the former director of the Institute of Population Health at King’s College London, said that it is impossible to quantify the extent to which the Olympics have caused a surge in the number of confirmed cases in Japan, but sports events are indeed one of the main driving forces for the spread of the epidemic.
On the other hand, due to insufficient vaccine supply, Japan’s vaccination work started late and progressed slowly. Up to now, only 25.5% of the population has been fully vaccinated, which is of little significance in reducing public safety risks. This wave of Japanese epidemics, The number of infections among young people who have not been vaccinated is rising sharply.
Japan’s vaccination work has improved significantly in May with the gradual stabilization of vaccine supply doses and the help of the government of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.
Is the mask and vaccine sector going to surge again?
The global new crown epidemic has once again sounded the alarm. The delta strain of the new crown mutant virus has spread to 132 countries and regions. The World Health Organization predicts that the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide will exceed 200 million in the next two weeks. In response to the new round of the epidemic, countries have begun to tighten their anti-epidemic policies and at the same time step up vaccination.
Disturbed by the international and domestic epidemics, from July 28 to August 2, the anti-epidemic concept stocks of A-shares were sought after by funds. The new crown testing stocks such as Oriental Bio, Bohui Innovation, and Daan Gene rose collectively, and mask concept stocks also Go up across the board. The United States has reissued the “mask order”, which will also stimulate orders for mask companies to pick up again.
At the same time, spurred by the news that China’s vaccine research and development has made significant progress, vaccine leader Cansino rose nearly 30% in four days, and Fosun Pharma’s four-day increase was also close to 20%. August 2 set a new record high.
On July 26, the team of Academician Chen Wei of the Academy of Military Medical Research of the Academy of Military Sciences and Kansino Biosciences jointly developed the adenovirus vector recombinant new crown vaccine for nebulization inhalation and published clinical research data in the well-known international academic journal “The Lancet · Infectious Diseases” This is also the world‘s first publicly published results of a mucosal immune clinical trial of the new crown vaccine.
The research results show that the safety of nebulized inhalation vaccination is good, and there is no local adverse reaction of intramuscular injection. Nebulized inhalation only needs to use 1/5 of the dose for intramuscular injection, and the level of cellular immune response can be equivalent to that of 1 intramuscular injection. After intramuscular injection, the use of nebulized inhalation to boost immunity can produce high levels of neutralizing antibodies.
According to CCTV news reports, researchers put the vaccine in a nebulizer and do not need to be inoculated by injection. Instead, they only need to inhale through nebulization to obtain triple protection of mucosal immunity, cellular immunity and humoral immunity. It is safer and more convenient to prevent infection and block transmission at the location of virus invasion.
At present, this vaccine is progressing in an orderly phase 2 clinical trial. Next, researchers will race against time and strive to apply for emergency use of the vaccine as soon as possible.
As the catalyst for the vaccine sector, in addition to the development of new vaccines, there are also subsequent countries’ expectations for increased vaccine procurement. On the evening of July 28, the head of Pfizer’s R&D chief said that within 6 to 12 months after the complete vaccination, it may be necessary to continue to receive the third booster vaccine.
In addition, Israeli statistics show that the protective effect will be weakened after a few months of vaccination. People who were vaccinated in January this year now have an anti-infection ability of only 16%, while those who were vaccinated in April this year have an anti-infection ability of 75%.
This means that the country that first initiated the vaccination plan may restart a new round of vaccination. According to the Financial Times, the U.S. government will purchase another 200 million doses of BioNTech/Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine and expand the total order to 500 million doses. These vaccines are expected to be delivered between October this year and April next year, perhaps in preparation for a new round of vaccination.
Vaccine prices are expected to heat up again. In the latest EU supply contract, Pfizer increased the price of its Covid-19 vaccine by more than 25%, and Moderna’s price by more than 10%, which will provide a total of 2.1 billion vaccines by 2023.
But at the complicated moment when the EU vaccine was launched, the EU finally signed the contract. EU officials said that the European Commission and EU governments have agreed to pay higher prices to ensure qualified supply from European manufacturing plants.
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