British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been caught up in an investigation into whether he had lied to Parliament about “Partygate” after being fined last month for holding a party in Downing Street (Downing Street), the prime minister’s office, in violation of anti-epidemic restrictions, according to comprehensive media reports. This chain of events made him two “firsts”, the first in history to be convicted of a sitting British prime minister, and the first to be investigated by parliament for lying to parliament.
Angry Conservative MPs were set to launch a vote of no confidence in Johnson in January, seeing dissatisfaction with double standards and repeated denials. But when Russia invaded Ukraine in February, Johnson was diverted from the public eye by strongly supporting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Observers said that if the Conservative Party loses this vote, calls for Johnson to step down and elect a new leader to prepare for the next general election in 2024 may resume.
On the other hand, the opposition Labour Party (Labour Party). As early as the last local elections in 2018, when the Brexit vote ended two years ago and the Conservative Party was in chaos, the Labour Party took advantage of the situation to gain a lot. Keir Starmer, who has been Labour leader since 2020, hopes that the current Labour Party will take back the “red wall” iron vote district council of the English Labour Party, which was turned blue by the Conservative Party. .
Recent polls show more than half of the public think Johnson should step down. The problem is that there is no obvious successor in the Conservative Party, and the British Prime Minister is now playing a major role in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, so the Conservative Party has so far failed to organize to bring down Johnson. Labour will win a majority in England. On top of that, Labour wants a slice of Scotland, the stronghold of the Scottish National Party (SNP), and a strong foothold in Wales.
Observers have pointed out that if the Conservative Party suffers a crushing defeat in local elections, in order to have enough time to restore public opinion before the next election to be held in January 2025 at the latest, even if there is no obvious candidate in the party to replace Johnson, the Conservative Party’s In the bleak election situation, it is inevitable that a group of heroes will emerge and strive to be this “hero”. At this time, even if Johnson can temporarily retain his position, he will become a “lame duck” who is temporarily sitting in phase.
These are just Johnson’s personal gains and losses. But the Northern Ireland parliamentary election could make history.
Sinn Fein may become the largest party in Northern Ireland’s parliament
Under the Northern Ireland Protocol, which came into effect on January 1, 2021, goods entering Northern Ireland from England, Wales and Scotland are subject to inspection at the Northern Ireland border, but goods shipped from Northern Ireland You may enter Ireland without inspection. Ireland remains a member of the European Union, while Northern Ireland continues to implement product standards set by the European Union.
In other words, after Brexit, Northern Ireland will remain in the EU single market, further eroding “British identity”. Although London has not given up on negotiating with the EU to cancel part of the Northern Ireland agreement, it is worth watching how this local election affects the relationship between the UK and Ireland, the EU, and even the US, which has a strong Irish community.
The results of the Northern Ireland parliamentary elections will be closely watched. Experts pointed out that if Sinn Fein, a nationalist party in Northern Ireland, wins, it will affect the trend of issues such as the Irish unification referendum and the border inspection with Northern Ireland after the United Kingdom leaves the European Union.
Sinn Fein, formerly known as the Irish Republican Army (IRA), has long targeted a push for a so-called border vote on whether to extend British rule over Northern Ireland. This election campaign, they made fewer calls for Irish reunification, and instead focused on local issues such as people’s rising cost of living.
Sinn Fein vice-chairman Michelle O’Neill said voters were “looking to the future” with pragmatism, not the dogmatism that has long been a hallmark of Northern Irish politics.
But Sinn Fein’s opponent, DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson, insists holding a border vote is at the heart of Sinn Fein’s platform.
A poll conducted by political news outlet POLITICO shows Sinn Fein is expected to win 26% of the vote, making it the largest party in the Northern Ireland parliament, while the Democratic Unionist Party, which supports staying in the UK system, is second with around 20%.
Sinn Fein won 27 seats in the 90-seat Northern Ireland parliament in the last 2017 local elections, just one shy of the pro-British Democratic Alliance Party. In this election, Sinn Fein continued to lead the Democratic Unionist Party, albeit by a modest margin. If Sinn Fein eventually becomes the largest party in Parliament, a Sinn Fein will serve as the first minister of Northern Ireland, which will be the first time in history that a politician who advocates the merger of Northern and Southern Ireland has held this position, and it will also be the first time in history that both Northern Ireland and Ireland are owned by Sinn Féin. Party governance.
Under the 1998 Good Friday Agreement aimed at ending the conflict in Northern Ireland, if the British Secretary of State for Northern Ireland decides that a majority of Northern Irish voters are inclined to support “Northern Ireland stop being part of the United Kingdom” and let Northern Ireland and Northern Ireland be part of the United Kingdom If Ireland is united, a referendum must be called.
In fact, such a referendum can only be held after consultation with the Irish government; the reunification of the southern and northern parts of Ireland also needs to be decided by a referendum in the Republic of Ireland.
According to the latest poll by the “Irish Times”, most Irish citizens support the reunification of the South and the North, but this is a long-term goal; what “means” and “models” to adopt and how to reshape the relationship with the United Kingdom will depend on the more critical question.
【Small information】
The United Kingdom today re-elected some local council seats in England (including all 32 borough council seats in the London metropolitan area), all local council seats in Scotland and Wales, and all seats in the Northern Ireland parliament, totaling nearly 7,000 seats.
In England, including major metropolitan areas such as Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester, as well as all 32 boroughs in London, a total of about 146 parliaments and 4,360 seats are up for competition; South Yorkshire in the north of England will elect a regional mayor and 1,000 parish council seats; Scotland has 32 councils with 1,227 seats; Wales has 22 councils with 1,234 seats Seats; Northern Ireland needs to vote for 90 members of Belfast’s devolved government Northern Ireland Parliament.
The polling time starts at 6:00 am on the 5th Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) and ends at 21:00 pm.
More than half of England’s parliament will start counting votes after polling stations close on the 5th, and the rest will start counting on the morning of the 6th. Counting will begin in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland on the morning of the 6th, and the full results are expected to be announced that evening.
In England and Northern Ireland, UK citizens over the age of 18 and citizens of European Union (EU) or Great Britain member states resident in the UK can vote. In Scotland and Wales, foreign citizens who are legally resident in the UK and over the age of 16 can vote.
This election will determine who is responsible for performing local civic services such as road maintenance, bus routes, libraries, garbage collection and recycling, planning applications, and more. The Northern Ireland Council has the power to make laws on local housing, employment, education, health, agriculture and the environment. In addition to local issues, national issues may also play an important role in voting.