Ukraine war: Five ways the conflict could go in 2023 – BBC News 中文

Napoleon, Hitler, and Stalin all had to keep their armies going in the face of steppe winter, and now, with Putin’s troops in retreat, he’s developing more troops for winter and awaiting a new offensive in spring.

Both sides will need a time-out, but the Ukrainians are better equipped and more motivated to keep going and can be expected to keep the pressure going, at least in Donbas.

Near Kreminna and Svatove, Ukraine came very close to a major breakthrough, pushing Russian forces back to the next natural line of defense 40 miles away, close to where the incursion began in February.

With so much at stake, Kyiv will be reluctant to stop. However, the Ukrainian offensive may pause in the southwest after the recapture of Kherson.

Pressing Russia’s fragile road and rail links to Crimea across the eastern bank of the Dnipro river may be too difficult. But a new offensive from Kyiv could never be ruled out.

The decisive factor for the conflict in 2023 depends on the Russian spring offensive. Putin acknowledged that some 50,000 newly mobilized troops have reached the front lines; the 250,000 freshly mobilized are also being trained for next year’s offensive.

Until the fate of the new Russian forces is settled on the battlefield, there is no other possibility but to continue the war.

Another possibility is a short and volatile ceasefire. Putin has made it clear that he will not stop. Ukraine has also made it clear that it is still fighting for survival.

Andrei Piontkovsky, scientist and analyst，Washington DC

Ukraine will achieve full territorial integrity and victory by spring 2023 at the latest. Two factors are contributing to this result.

One is the drive, determination and courage of the Ukrainian army and the entire Ukrainian nation, which is unprecedented in the history of modern warfare.

The other is that, after years of appeasing the Russian dictator, the West has finally grown up and realized that the historic challenges it faces are serious. This is best illustrated by recent statements by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

“The price we pay is money. And the price Ukrainians pay is blood. If the authoritarian regime sees that force is rewarded, we will all pay a higher price. The world will become a more dangerous place for all.”

The exact timing of Ukraine’s inevitable victory depends on when NATO delivers a game-changing package of military assault weapons (tanks, aircraft, long-range missiles).

I expect Mariupol (Melitopol) to be a key battleground in the coming months (maybe weeks). With Mariupol recaptured, the Ukrainians could easily advance to the Azov Sea, effectively cutting off Crimea’s supply and communication lines.

Russia will formally agree to surrender in technical talks after Ukraine made huge gains on the battlefield.

Victorious powers such as Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the United States will shape the new international security architecture.

Barbara Zanchetta, Department of War Studies, King’s College London

Putin predicts that Ukraine will passively accept Russia’s next actions, and other countries will not substantially intervene. This gross miscalculation has led to a protracted conflict with no end in sight.

This winter is going to be tough, because Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will hit the already shattered morale and endurance of the Ukrainian people. But Ukraine’s resilience has proven astonishing. They will stick to it. The war will continue.

The outlook for negotiations is bleak. In order for a potential peace agreement to be reached, at least one party would need to change core demands. There is no evidence that this has happened, or will happen anytime soon.

So, how will the ending come about?

The material and human costs of this war could break the commitment of Russia’s political elite. The key lies within Russia.

In historical wars, miscalculation is a key factor. For example, the Vietnam War in the United States and the Afghan War in the Soviet Union all ended in this way. Once Russia’s domestic political situation, which has misjudged the situation, changes, withdrawal – whether “decent” or not – will be the only option.

However, this may only happen if the West firmly supports Ukraine, which is under increasing pressure at home over the cost of the war.

Sadly, this will be a protracted war involving political, economic and military resolve. By the end of 2023, the war will likely still be on.

Ben Hodges, former U.S. Army Commander in Europe

It is too early to plan a victory parade in Kyiv, but all the momentum is on the Ukrainian side. There is no doubt that they will win this war, probably in 2023.

Things will go slower in winter, but the Ukrainian army will be better equipped than the Russian army because all their winter equipment comes from the UK, Canada, and Germany.

By January next year, Ukraine may enter the final phase of the campaign to liberate Crimea.

History tells us that war is a test of will as well as logistical support. When I see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers, and the rapid improvement of Ukraine’s logistics, all I see is Russia failing.

The Russian withdrawal from Kherson partly leads me to this conclusion. This first psychologically irked the Ukrainian people, second caused extreme embarrassment to the Kremlin, and third gave the Ukrainian military a critical operational advantage—all access to Crimea is now within range of Ukrainian weapons systems.

There may be some sort of agreement that would allow Russia to gradually withdraw its naval installations in Sevastopol, and possibly even terminate Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea (circa 2025). But I believe that by the end of 2023, Crimea will be fully restored to Ukrainian control and sovereignty.

The reconstruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure along the Sea of ​​Azov coast is underway, including the important ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, and the reopening of the Northern Crimea Canal, which carries water from the Dnipro River to Crimea, will be affected. focus on.

David Gendelman, Military Expert，Tel Aviv

Looking forward to maintaining the status quo, rather than “how the war will end”, is the goal that both sides want to achieve in the next stage.

Only about half of the 300,000 troops Russia has mobilized have entered the theater. The rest of the force, together with those released after the retreat from Helsen, gave the Russians the opportunity to attack.

Russia’s occupation of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions will continue, but a major breakthrough is unlikely for Ukrainian troops encircling the Donbass region from the south to Pavlograd.

Russia is likely to continue its current tactics of slowly suppressing Ukrainian forces in narrow directions, advancing slowly, for example in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas, in Svatov-Krime The same tactics may be used in the Svatove-Kreminna region.

Continued targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, as well as attacks on the Ukrainian rear would complete this war of attrition strategy.

A large number of Ukrainian troops were also released following the Russian retreat from Kherson. For them, the direction of most strategic value was to go south, to Mariupol and Berdyansk, with the aim of cutting off the passage of the Russian mainland to the Crimea. This will be a big victory for Ukraine, which is why Russia is going to defend Mariupol.

Another option for Ukraine is Svatove. Success there would jeopardize the entire northern flank of the Russian front.

The big question is how many Ukrainian troops are currently free to move and what kind of schedule is on General Zaluzhnyi’s desk, which says how many reserve brigades and corps are being built and will be in one or two It will be ready in a month or three, including manpower, armored vehicles and heavy weapons.

After the mud freezes, we will know the answer to the question, and only then can we answer “how will the war end”.

（The above analysts were selected based on their military expertise and ability to present a diversity of perspectives.）