- Jonathan Beale
- BBC defence correspondent
image source,Getty Images
Russian tank breaks down and is abandoned on the side of the road
A full month has passed since the Russian army started a “special military operation” in Ukraine on February 24. The “lightning” victory that Putin had hoped for did not happen.
Russia has one of the largest and most powerful armed forces in the world, but this advantage was not evident in the initial stages of the invasion of Ukraine. Many Western military analysts were surprised by the Russian military’s performance on the battlefield, with one expert describing it as “very bad”.
At present, the advance of the Russian army appears to be at a standstill. Some analysts are skeptical that the losses suffered by the Russian military can be recovered.
Last week, a senior NATO military official told the BBC, “It is clear that the Russian military has not achieved their goals and probably will not achieve their ultimate goals.”
So, what went wrong with the Russian army? I interviewed some senior military and intelligence officials in Western countries about this.
wrong assumption
Russia’s first mistake was to underestimate the resistance and capabilities of the smaller Ukrainian army. For comparison, Russia’s annual defense budget exceeds $60 billion, while Ukraine’s military spending is just over $4 billion.
At the same time, Russia and many other countries seem to overestimate the strength of the Russian military. President Vladimir Putin may have bought into his own hype, as he has implemented an ambitious modernization plan for the Russian military.
The military strength comparison of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine before the war of aggression. Number of troops (active and reserve*), main battle tanks, combat aircraft, helicopter gunships, armored personnel carriers, artillery. Note*: Reserves include those who have retired within 5 years.Source: Military Balance 2022 report
A senior British military official said most of Russia’s investment was in its vast nuclear arsenal and weapons testing, including the development of new weapons such as hypersonic missiles.
Russia has developed the world‘s most advanced T-14 Armata main battle tank. Although it appeared at the Victory Day military parade on Red Square in Moscow, it was nowhere to be seen on the Ukrainian battlefield. Most of the current Russian military deployments are old-fashioned T-72 tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery and rocket launchers.
At the start of the invasion, the Russian military had a more than three-to-one advantage over the Ukrainian Air Force in the number of fighters deployed near the border. Most military analysts assumed that an invading Russian army would quickly gain air superiority, but this was not the case. The Ukrainian air defense system proved to be still effective, limiting the mobility of the Russian army.
Moscow may also hope that its special forces will play an important role in delivering quick, decisive strikes.
A senior Western intelligence official told the BBC that Russia believes it only needs to deploy lightly armed dagger units like Special Forces (Spetsnatz) and Airborne Forces (VDV) “to wipe out a few Ukrainian defenders and that’s it”.
But in the first few days of the invasion, a Russian helicopter attack on the Khostmel airfield outside Kyiv was repelled by Ukrainians, leaving the Russians unable to use air bridges to deliver troops, equipment and supplies.
image source,Getty Images
Russia’s so-called world‘s most advanced T-14 Armata main battle tank was unveiled at the Victory Day parade on Red Square in Moscow, but it was nowhere to be seen on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Instead, the Russian army had to rely mainly on roads to transport its supplies. This creates traffic jams and chokepoints that are easy targets for ambush by Ukrainian forces. Some heavy armored vehicles of the Russian army deviated from the road and fell into the mud, which further strengthened the outside world‘s impression that the Russian army was “in the mire”.
At the same time, satellite images of Russian armored convoys coming in from the northern border still failed to surround the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. However, the advance of the Russian army in southern Ukraine is more obvious, and it has been able to use the railway line to supply its troops. British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC that Putin’s army “has lost momentum”.
“The Russians are trapped and they are slowly but surely taking heavy casualties,” he said.
Severe casualties, low morale
Russia has assembled some 190,000 troops for the invasion, the vast majority of which are already in combat. But the Russian army has lost about 10% of its strength. There are currently no reliable figures on the scale of losses in Russia or Ukraine. Ukraine claims to have killed 14,000 Russian soldiers, but the U.S. estimates the actual number may be half that number.
Some Western officials said there was evidence that the morale of the Russian army was declining, with one official saying it was “very, very low”.
Another official said Russian troops were feeling “cold, tired and hungry” as they waited weeks in the snow on the Belarus-Russia border before being ordered to invade Ukraine.
Russia has been forced to mobilize more troops to make up for losses, including reserving troops from the country’s eastern regions and Armenia. Western officials believe mercenaries from Syria and from its clandestine Wagner group are also “very likely” to join the fray soon. A senior NATO military official said that this showed that the Russian military had to resort to “excessive use”.
supply and logistics
image source,Alamy
U.S. military aid announcement expected to include small switchblade ‘suicide’ drones
Russia’s basic security has encountered many difficulties. There is an old saying in the army, the layman is good at tactics, and the expert is on logistics. There is evidence that Russia is not paying enough attention to military logistics. The Russian army’s armored convoy has run out of fuel, food and ammunition. Numerous military vehicles broke down and were abandoned before being towed away by Ukrainian tractors.
Western officials also believe that the Russian military may have run out of stockpiles of some ammunition. To date, the Russian military has launched 850 to 900 long-range precision-strike missiles, including cruise missiles, which are more difficult to replace than non-precision-guided weapons. U.S. officials have warned that Russia has approached Beijing, hoping China will help address some of its military shortages.
In contrast, Western-supplied weapons are being shipped to Ukraine in a steady stream, greatly boosting Ukrainian morale. The United States recently announced that it will provide Ukraine with an additional $800 million in military aid. In addition to providing more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, it is expected to include the Switchblade small drone. This kind of UAV, commonly known as “Kamikaze”, can be quickly deployed and launched by a single soldier to detect and strike ground targets.
But Western officials have warned that Putin could “up the ante with greater violence”. He still has enough weapons for now that he could indiscriminately bomb Ukrainian cities “for quite some time.”
An intelligence official said Putin, despite the setback, was “unlikely to be intimidated and could instead escalate further. He may still believe that Russia can defeat Ukraine militarily.”
The official warned that despite the stubborn resistance of the Ukrainian army, if they do not get a lot of supplies, they may “eventually run out of ammunition and food and be outnumbered”. While the situation may be more favorable for Ukraine than at the beginning of the war, Ukraine still faces powerful headwinds.