Only a few hours left before the deadlineultimatum imposed on Niger by the West African Economic Community (Ecowas). At midnight, after a week’s time, the military operation to free the Nigerian president could start Mohamed Bazoum. We are still in the realm of possibilities because this military attack would be the first in the history of Ecowas and could be explosive in an unstable region like the Sahel.
At the moment I am four states who would have made their armed forces available: Nigeria, Benin, the Ivory Coast and Senegal, while the remaining 7 members, while supporting the decision, will not be involved. Yesterday, however, the Nigerian president Tinubu balla great promoter of this decision, saw the Senate Nigerian ask for a negotiation supplement temporarily stopping the military option.
Tinubu can technically override the Senate using the emergency device, but it remains a relevant political fact. Even the foreign minister of Benin, one of the four armies ready to intervene, is pushing for a new one diplomatic actionmind in Senegal there are violent anti-French demonstrations after the arrest of the opposition leader which weaken the president’s decisions Macky Sall.
Ecowas received the unconditional support of United States and European Union, but it is above all France that is putting pressure on Nigeria and the other states to intervene in Niger. At the regional level the First and theAlgeria have declared that they will not act militarily and will not close the borders, Algerian President Tebboune has condemned the use of force.
Returning from Mali on General Modyone of the coup leaders, is already negotiating the arrival of the Wagner Group in Niger, a way to strengthen the military junta’s grip on the country. In Niger, the “surveillance brigades” voluntary militias roaming the streets to repress all forms of dissent, proof of an increasingly strong grip of the military. A major attack by Ecowas could also involve the troops of Mali e Burkina Faso in defense of Niger and plunge West Africa into yet another bloody conflict that could last for years.
Matteo Giusti, professional journalist, Africanist and writer, collaborates with Limes, Domino, Panorama, Il Manifesto, Il Corriere del Ticino and Rai. He has gained a great knowledge of the African continent which he has visited and analyzed many times, also thanks to contacts with the local population. In 2021 he published the book L’Omicidio Attanasio, morte di una ambassador and in 2022 Their Africa, the new powers against old Europe both published by Castelvecchi
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Matteo Giusti