LONDON – For several observers and many of his critics, Boris Johnson committed a serious gamble yesterday. And that is, as anticipated in recent days, immediately return to a pre-Covid normality, eliminating the latest restrictions against the Coronavirus, including the obligation of self-isolation and quarantine for those who test positive for the virus: “As with the flu, it will no longer be a legal constraint to stay at home, but only strongly advised. We have a very high level of antibodies to Covid “- according to the latest estimates in 98% of the population -” and therefore we can now return to live without limitations to our freedom. I am really proud of this. Even if the Coronavirus is still among us and therefore we must still be cautious. Yes, the sun is out, but we must always carry an umbrella with us “.
An irrational and dangerous decision, according to several experts and epidemiologists. However, there are three graphs, which were shown yesterday at a press conference by Johnson and his leading medical and scientific experts Sir Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance, which explain two things. First: it is the best time to reopen. And, second, the extraordinary role of vaccines. Which not only saved the lives of hundreds of thousands of especially elderly people, decisively supporting public health in overcoming the Omicron wave. But they have allowed the UK’s overall deaths, which shot up in excess during the pandemic’s toughest months, now to fall short.
As can be seen from this first graph, for example, those vaccinated with three doses have much less chance of going to hospital for Covid, even if they are over 80 years old, compared to the unvaccinated. This is primarily due to the high vaccination acceptance in the UK, where 91.4% of the population over 12 years old (the age limit so far for vaccines which will drop to 5 years from next April) has received at least one dose. of vaccine, 85% at least two and 66.1% three doses. Just yesterday, the Minister of Health, Sajid Javid, announced the fourth dose for all over 75 and the most fragile.
But this graph is also very important. As we can see, if you are triple vaccinated, there is an almost minimal chance of ending up in intensive care even between 50 and 69 years of age, compared to those who have not received any dose. Johnson stressed this yesterday, also announcing the stop of free antigen tests for the entire population from April 1, which so far have cost 2 billion pounds a month and which so far have been very useful in monitoring the pandemic: “We will protect especially the most fragile and the elders “.
Then there is this third table which tells how the excess deaths today no longer occur, despite unfortunately there have been hundreds of deaths a day in recent weeks. In short, summing up, at the moment we die less than the estimate of deaths without a Coronavirus pandemic. This data is particularly important because the United Kingdom, before the total free all announced yesterday and in force since this Thursday, has practically had very few restrictions since last July and the use of masks has dropped drastically. Therefore, we are not dealing with data distorted by a lockdown or by very restrictive measures, but by a scenario very close to the “new normal” based on the systematic use of vaccines.
The numbers of the Coronavirus, then, are increasingly positive in the United Kingdom. Yesterday 38,409 new cases were recorded (-20.5% on a weekly basis) on 704 thousand swabs. There were 15 deaths (-19.1%), while hospitalizations were 1,294, again down by 11.9% compared to last week.
Of course, a new variant that is more virulent and lethal and that perhaps manages to escape more from current vaccines is always possible, and therefore we must always be on our guard, with the possibility of new restrictions in mind if necessary, as the first admitted yesterday. British minister.
Certainly there is no lack of criticism, especially on the stop to free tests: if a person does not have the possibility (or the money) to know if he is infected or not, how will he have the “common sense” not to infect others? In short, the Johnson government’s strategy seems justified by the data, and not just by a political move to reunite the party and try to make the public forget the scandal of prohibited parties in lockdown. But it may have flaws, and it will soon be seen whether it worked or not.