China is currently no longer Germany’s largest trading partner. In the first three months of 2024, first place was taken by the United States, with a total value of trade rising to 63 billion euros, against China’s 60 billion. It emerges from calculations carried out by Reuters on the official data ofFederal Statistical Office and posted on his site. In the whole of 2023 Beijing had exchanged goods with Berlin for 253 billion euros, confirming itself in first place for the eighth year in a row. However, now the effects of US pressure on Europe to shift the balance seem to be starting to be felti towards the Atlantic.
With the war in Ukraine and the sanctions on Russia, the USA has multiplied the sale of gas (in the form of liquefied gas) to Europe, offsetting a large part of the Russian supplies of which Germany was one of the main customers. Before the war the US sold around 2 billion cubic meters to the EU of LNG per month, now they are more than double. Furthermore, Washington has also exerted strong pressure to ban some Chinese technologies, think of the 5G equipment and infrastructure created by Huawei, the Chinese company at the forefront of technology in this sector.
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Germany is “moving away from systemic rival China towards a transatlantic partner,” he said Jurgen Matthes, of the German Institute of Economics in Cologne (Iw). Thanks to the strength of the American economy, German exports continued to increasewhile those for China fell, along with imports, he noted Vincent Stamer, economist at Commerzbank. “China has moved up the value chain and now produces more and more complex goods that it previously imported from Germany,” added Stamer, for whom German companies “they produce more and more locally instead of exporting the goods from Germany to China.” Geopolitical tensions – such as the dispute over Taiwan, claimed by Beijing as an “inalienable” part of its territory – could further strengthen this trend.
This phenomenon Italy is also interested which, for some time, has seen the balance of its trade balance move to America, at the expense of the Far East. In the first three months of the year, Made in Italy exports to the USA rose by over 9%, while those destined for China fell by 46%. Likewise, imports from America rose by 7% and those from China fell by more than 20%. The estrangement of the Western bloc from China has physiological linitis, given the close interpenetration of some production chains and Chinese leadership in many of the key technologies for the green transition. However Italy could also profit from this evolution. Being one of the countries in the Western bloc with the lowest labor costs ever, it could replace China for some types of supplies destined for the USA or Germany.
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