What could happen next for the Wikileaks founder

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When the High Court in London decides on Julian Assange’s appeal, a lot will be at stake for the WikiLeaks founder. As his lawyers say, perhaps for his life too. If Assange fails in court and is deported to the USA, he faces a prison sentence of at least 175 years. His lawyer Jennifer Robinson warned before the trial began that Assange could then take his own life.

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The courts have been fighting over Julian Assange for 13 years. The main issue now is a possible extradition to the USA, where he could stand trial again for 18 charges. But what could actually happen next for the Australian journalist? Five possible scenarios.

1. Julian Assange will not be extradited to the USA

It would not be the first round that Assange’s lawyers could make in the British courts. If they manage to convince the High Court judges of their argument, there could be another hearing, for example. Then Assange would not be expelled and the accepted arguments would be heard again.

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But it is unclear what these could be. If the court rejects some of the arguments, Assange’s lawyers will not be able to rely on them at a possible hearing. The radius for his team could thus become smaller.

Assange case: The West is violating its own standards

A court in London decides on the extradition of Julian Assange to the USA. It is understandable that he is not viewed as a hero there. But the treatment of the founder of the disclosure platform Wikileaks contradicts elementary human rights, comments Markus Decker.

And: Given the past hearings, it is less likely that this case will occur. Although a British district judge banned Assange’s extradition in January 2021, this decision was overturned by the High Court at the end of the year. In addition, the then British Home Secretary Priri Patel signed an extradition order. Attempts by Assange’s lawyers to stop this were legally rejected.

2. Julian Assange is extradited and sues before the European Court of Justice

If Assange and his team fail in the High Court, all legal remedies in England have been exhausted. However, there could still be a way for him through another court that could block the extradition: the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) in Strasbourg. Assange’s lawyers had announced that they would use this opportunity before the trial.

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Although Great Britain is no longer part of the EU, as a member of the Council of Europe, ECHR decisions are legally binding for the country. But: Even if the court takes up the case, it could take years until a decision is made.

Precious time when Assange could have long since been transferred to the USA. The so-called “individual complaint” that Assange’s lawyers could submit does not protect him from extradition. Instead, they would have to rely on Article 39 of the Rules of Procedure of the ECtHR. This states that before the procedure is decided, “provisional measures can be designated” – in Assange’s case, preventing deportation. Article 39 is often referred to in such cases. However, the legal hurdles are very high.

3. Julian Assange is extradited to the USA and has to be imprisoned

If Assange fails in court in London and the ECHR does not intervene quickly enough, the journalist will be deported to the USA. In Great Britain his legal options have been exhausted and the proceedings would be concluded. Observers and supporters of Assange particularly fear this scenario. Experts have had concerns about the treatment of the WikiLeaks founder for a long time.

Assange is considered to be in poor health and mental health. He has been in extradition custody in the British high-security Belmarsh prison for more than four years; he previously spent seven years in the Ecuadorian embassy in London – for fear of being extradited to Sweden. There were allegations of sexual offenses in the country that have since been dropped. There is great concern that Assange will commit suicide due to the pressure of recent years or that his health will continue to deteriorate. In the USA, Assange faces up to 175 years in prison if convicted.

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If the hearing fails, there are time limits within which he will be deported from the country. If Britain were to extradite him immediately, it would forestall a decision by the ECHR. And thus potentially lose credibility for future decisions.

4. Julian Assange is extradited and pardoned by Joe Biden

The Assange case not only accompanies President Biden throughout his entire term in office, Donald Trump and Barack Obama have also dealt with it. Fourteen years ago, Assange, together with the now convicted whistleblower Chelsea Manning, published secret information about military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, including the video entitled “Collateral Murder”. It shows how soldiers killed civilians from an attack helicopter during an operation in Baghdad. For this he should be convicted under the US Espionage Act – even though Assange is an Australian citizen.

During his time in office, Barack Obama decided against an extradition request. However, his successors Trump and Biden both supported it.

Joe Biden in particular has been criticized for this. And he is in a crisis of credibility: The incumbent US president based his campaign for the US election partly on the support of a free press. On International Press Freedom Day, Biden also said: “Journalism is not a crime. It is fundamental for a free society.” And yet Biden continues to insist on expulsion and a trial in the USA. Critics therefore accused him of hypocrisy. A pardon by President Biden is one of the rather unlikely scenarios.

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5. Julian Assange returns to Australia

Assange’s home country Australia is also involved in the case. In a vote, the majority of Australian parliament members voted that the 52-year-old should be allowed to return to his country – and not be extradited to the USA. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese therefore called on both the British and American governments to drop the case and allow Assange to return to Australia. He also personally conveyed this request to US President Biden during a government visit. The struggle for Assange could therefore continue.