In vitro diagnostic industry related companies: BGI (300676), Novozymes (699105), Wanfu Bio (300482), etc.
The core data of this article: the number of new crown self-test products approved, the new crown self-test product parameters, the new crown self-test product sensitivity, the new crown self-test product inspection principle, the global new crown self-test industry market size forecast, China’s new crown self-test industry market space capacity calculation, Price comparison of new crown antigen self-test products between China and Hong Kong
Under the policy blessing, 11 new crown antigen self-test products were approved
On March 10, 2022, the Comprehensive Team of the Joint Epidemic Prevention and Control Mechanism issued the “New Coronavirus Antigen Detection Application Plan (Trial)”. This policy adds antigen detection as a supplement to the original nucleic acid detection, which clearly mentions antigen detection. Eligible groups and meeting conditions for different applicable groups, test results disposal, and testing reagents. One of them is worth noting, that is, the antigen test of community residents, and the test results of different community residents have different processing methods accordingly.
The total number of new crown self-testing boxes approved in the UK is higher
About 2 years after the epidemic, the United Kingdom and Australia have approved more than 30 new crown self-testing boxes, and Canada, Singapore and Hong Kong have approved about 10-20 new crown self-testing boxes. On the fourth day that China opened the new crown self-test box to residents, it has approved the listing of the new crown self-test box of 11 companies.
China’s new crown self-test products were deployed overseas earlier and have advanced technology
According to the testing research of the 7 most common antigen self-test kits on the global market by the University of Geneva, Switzerland, they belong to Akcome Bio, Abbott, Roche, Premier, Wanfu, Tiger Cosin and Kinex; 4 of them are Made by Chinese companies, namely Akcome Bio, Wanfu Bio, Tiger Kexin and Jiannaixi.
Judging from the sensitivity of Omicron, the sensitivity of the four is higher than that of Abbott, Roche and Premier; from the sensitivity of Delta, the sensitivity of Roche and Premier are both lower than those of the 4 Chinese companies, while Abbott is slightly higher than that of Thailand. Ge Kexin and Jian Nai Xi. Elken Biotech has the highest sensitivity among the seven strains, Omicron and Delta, which are currently the most prevalent strains in the world, at 88.9% and 91.2%, respectively.
China’s new crown antigen self-test product testing principles are diversified
As of March 14, 2022, the detection principles of 7 major products in the world are mainly colloidal gold method and immunochromatography, and the 11 new coronavirus antigen self-test products in China are mainly colloidal gold method, immunochromatography and The latex method, and another one is the magnetic particle chemiluminescence method, and the inspection principles are more diverse.
In 2027, China’s new crown antigen self-test market space capacity exceeds 2 trillion yuan
Assuming that everyone in China needs a new crown antigen self-test product, the market space capacity of the new crown antigen self-test is calculated by comprehensively considering factors such as population growth, price, and use interval. By 2027, China’s new crown antigen self-test market capacity may approach 2.1 trillion yuan.
The opening of China’s new crown antigen self-test kit has a certain impact on the global market
——The technical level of China’s new crown antigen self-test kit drives the global technical level
Judging from the approved products and technical level of the new crown antigen self-test kits in China and the world, it shows that the company has deployed overseas regions earlier, occupied a relatively dominant global market position, and is also relatively advanced in the technology of new crown self-test products, while the market Under the situation of increasingly fierce competition, China’s leading technology level will promote the progress of global technology level.
-Limited impact on the market
China has recently opened up antigen self-testing kits for home self-testing to the public. Although China has a huge population base, it will expand the global consumption of COVID-19 antigen self-testing products. Comparing the prices of the test kits after one year of sales, it is still found that the starting price in mainland China is cheaper than that in Hong Kong, China. With the popularity of test kits in the future, the price of test kits in China may stabilize at this level level / slightly reduced.
Assuming that other countries’ policies on antigen self-testing products for home self-testing remain unchanged, according to the proportion of the population in China and the world, the growth rate of the population (according to the “National Population Development Strategy Research Report”), the price of Chinese and foreign test kits, and Grandview Research Based on the disclosed compound annual growth rate of 6.7%, it can be seen that even with the opening of the Chinese market, the compound annual growth rate will not change much.
In 2021, the antigen self-test market will exceed US$15 million; by 2027, its market size will be expanded by more than US$22 million due to the opening of the Chinese market.
According to the market size calculated in the forward-looking manner, the market share change of the global antigen self-testing industry for home self-testing should be small.
Where is the Chinese and foreign new crown self-test industry market developing?
The world and China are slightly different because of the current development forms, and the development trends of the world and China are also different. From a technical point of view, China is slightly better in the world, so the development of technology will lead to the development of products. However, due to the lack of sales experience in China, in terms of sales channels, the world may be the first to achieve intelligent sales.
What is the impact on the global market?
From the analysis of the current global and Chinese technology, products and layout status, after the opening of China’s new crown self-test industry, the impact on the global new crown self-test market will be limited, but from a technical point of view, China’s technology will promote the global technology level increase.
Note: The market size is different from the market space capacity. The market size is the actual consumption amount, and the space capacity is the highest amount that can be achieved within a reasonable preset range.
Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute
Original title: What kind of development, changes and trends will the global new crown self-test industry develop?