Original title: Interpretation|The three parties in Germany announced the agreement to form a cabinet, where will their China policy go?
On November 24, local time, the German Social Democratic Party, the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party announced that they had reached an agreement on the formation of a cabinet. If everything goes smoothly, it is expected that the new government will be formally established in early December, and Germany will soon usher in the first federal-level “traffic light” alliance (the three parties are red, green, and yellow, which are the same as traffic lights, hence the name) . At present, the deputy prime minister and finance minister of the caretaker government, and the Social Democratic Party member Schultz will replace Merkel, who has been in power for 16 consecutive years, as the next prime minister.
The “Traffic Lights” three parties also announced on the 24th a 177-page cabinet-forming agreement, covering various aspects of internal affairs, diplomacy, and personnel arrangements. Among them, the word “China” appeared 12 times. tough.
“The statement of this cabinet formation agreement to China clearly reflects the colors of the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party, not the colors of the Social Democratic Party.” Hu Chunchun, head of the “European Studies” graduate program at the Shanghai Institute of Global Governance and Regional Countries, Shanghai International Studies University Said to The Paper (www.thepaper.cn).
Regarding the expression of China in this agreement, Cui Hongjian, director of the Institute of European Studies of the China Institute of International Studies, pointed out that this shows that the new ruling coalition is “renovating for innovation,” but it still hopes to maintain Sino-German relations within a relatively stable framework. .
“Cooperation” is still in the first place
This “traffic light” three-party cabinet formation agreement has many contents related to China.
In the foreign relations paragraph of the agreement, the “traffic light” three-party cabinet formation agreement followed the EU’s definition of China’s “partner, competitor, and institutional adversary.” The document also mentioned the South China Sea, the East China Sea, human rights, Taiwan, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong, and stated that it would support Taiwan’s participation in international organizations “within the framework of the EU’s one-China policy.”
The foreign policy part of this document places great emphasis on the so-called values, saying that Germany and the EU must adopt a more consistent policy toward China, strengthen transatlantic coordination on China issues, and cooperate with “countries with the same ideas” and “reduction strategies.” rely”. In the so-called “Indo-Pacific region” paragraph, the three parties proposed to strengthen cooperation with “value partners” and to start regular government consultations with Japan.
In addition, the document issued by the three parties also mentioned China on the issue of nuclear disarmament and stated that “for various reasons”, the European Council cannot now approve the China-EU Investment Agreement. But at the same time, the document also stated in the section “International University Cooperation” that the so-called “Asian and Chinese capabilities” (Asien- und China-Kompetenz) should be improved.
In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian stated at a regular press conference on November 25 that China values the China-Germany all-round strategic partnership and believes that the development of bilateral relations is in the common interests of the two countries and the two peoples, and is also conducive to the development of bilateral relations. Promote China-EU exchanges and cooperation. Next year is the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Germany. I hope that the new German government will continue its pragmatic China policy, meet China halfway, develop bilateral relations on the basis of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit, and use its energy to promote practical cooperation in various fields between China and Germany. .
Zhao Lijian emphasized that Taiwan, the South China Sea, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and other issues are China’s internal affairs, which are related to China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. All previous German governments have upheld the one-China policy and hope that the new German government will continue to abide by this policy, respect China’s core interests, and maintain the political foundation of bilateral relations.
Surging image mapSchultz, who is expected to be prime minister, will speak at a press conference on November 24.
In a press conference held by the three parties in Berlin on the 24th, Schultz also mentioned that there will be many important countries in the world that will have an impact on global affairs in the future, not only China and the United States, but also many important countries in Asia, Africa, and South America. . At the same time, Scholtz also emphasized the importance of transatlantic relations, especially cooperation with the United States, which “has a central significance for the future government.” The cabinet-forming agreement also spent a lot of time discussing the “deep and diverse” relations between Germany and Russia.
Regarding the China-related expressions in the three-party cabinet formation agreement, Cui Hongjian analyzed The Paper, first of all, this reflects the “innovation for innovation” of the new ruling coalition. He pointed out that the ruling coalition wants to establish its own image, and it wants to establish a differentiated stand against the United States, Russia, and China. During the Merkel era, Sino-German relations were more positive than negative, cooperation was greater than differences, and the new alliance wanted to “renovate” and deliberately made relatively large changes to the previous statement.
Cui Hongjian also pointed out that although the negative aspects of Sino-German relations may increase and frictions may increase, the three parties still hope to keep Sino-German relations operating within a relatively stable framework. “In the agreement, the triple positioning of China still refers to partnership and cooperation. In terms of order, cooperation is still put first. This actually shows that the three parties have compromised.” Cui Hongjian said that Germany’s previous China policy also Including the opinions of the Social Democratic Party, the Social Democratic Party is currently the ruling party, and the “Traffic Light” alliance cannot “remove” the Social Democratic Party if it wants to reform.
One German TV station commented, “Traffic lights do not plan to completely change the course of their China policy, but they want to appear more confident.”
Surging image map“Speak to the U.S.”
Compared with the cabinet formation agreement reached by the Coalition Party (CDU, CDU) and the Social Democratic Party under the leadership of Merkel in 2018, the three parties of the “Traffic Light” are obviously more tough on China. Although the 2018 agreement has some negative language, it says it will strengthen its partnership with China and that China’s economic development is a “great opportunity” for the German economic community. Merkel also said in an exclusive interview with Reuters in November this year, “I think it’s not right to completely decouple (from China) and it’s harmful to us.”
To what extent will the stance on China in this cabinet formation agreement be implemented in the future?
Hu Chunchun said that compared with the cooperation between the two parties, the situation of the three-party cabinet negotiation is more complicated. This text is the result of a compromise. The three parties have found a “sense of existence” in the text, but how great is this “sense of existence” The extent to which Germany’s real foreign policy can be formed, and its implementation on specific international issues, still depends on the wrestling of different external environments and internal forces.
On the one hand, Germany itself needs to digest the problems of the three-party governance; on the other hand, it also needs to understand these statements from the international background and the German domestic background. “To put it exaggeratedly, the China-related part of the three-party agreement is a statement on transatlantic relations and on the United States‘ position on China; to the extreme, this is the text that expresses its stance to the United States.” Hu Chunchun said.
Cui Hongjian believes that this situation may arise in practice: the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party reflect the so-called “innovative” side of their China policy from different perspectives and their respective departments, including a tough attitude and interference in China’s internal affairs; but once contradictions arise , And need the Social Democratic Party to reconcile.
“In the short term, Sino-German relations will have greater risks than before, especially the conflicts between public opinion and diplomacy may increase, but the impact on the actual interests of both parties may not be so great. If the two sides consciously manage their differences, they can Minimize the impact of some so-called radical and adventurous colors in concepts, discourse, and expression on actual bilateral relations.” Cui Hongjian said.
On October 26, 2021, local time, Berlin, Germany, the first plenary meeting of the Bundestag after the general election in Germany.People’s Visual Map
Divisional and partisan differences
The agreement also stipulates the distribution of various departments of the federal government. The agreement only announced the party distribution of each department, and did not disclose the specific personnel arrangements.
In addition to the selection of prime ministers, the Social Democratic Party will also be in charge of six departments including the Ministry of the Interior, the Ministry of National Defense, and the Ministry of Health. The Green Party will receive the post of Deputy Prime Minister and will be in charge of five departments including the Ministry of Economy and Climate Protection, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry of Environment. The media generally believe that one of the Green Party’s dual chairmen, Harbeck, will serve as the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy, while the other chairman of the party and the candidate for prime minister in the general election, Bell Burke, will serve as the Minister of Foreign Affairs. At the press conference on the 24th, Bell Burke also talked about a lot of diplomacy-related content.
The Liberal Democratic Party will be in charge of four departments including the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Transportation and Digital Infrastructure. The Liberal Democratic Party has announced the ministerial candidate. The chairman of the party, Lindner, has obtained the position of finance minister he has been asking for and has become the third person in the new government.
In the German general election two months ago, the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party, and the Liberal Democratic Party ranked first, third, and fourth in votes. The three parties had cooperated in governing at the state level, but they had not yet governed at the federal level. The Social Democratic Party is a traditional center-left party. The Green Party advocates environmental issues and its political stance is also to the left. The Liberal Democratic Party focuses on liberalism, emphasizing personal freedom and the role of the market. The three parties exist on many issues such as finance, taxation, environmental protection, and diplomacy. difference.
According to German TV Station Two, in terms of energy transition and environmental protection, the three parties proposed in the cabinet-forming agreement that coal power should be eliminated by 2030, solar and wind energy should be increased, and internal combustion engine vehicles should no longer be sold from 2035. And vigorously develop hydrogen energy. It is the request of the Green Party to advance the deadline for “removal of coal” from 2038 to 2030, but their request to stop selling internal combustion engine vehicles in 2030 has not been accepted. However, unlike previous media disclosures, the document did not mention the specific time limit for phasing out natural gas, only saying that “natural gas cannot be abandoned during the (energy transition) transition period.”
The cabinet agreement also emphasizes the need to promote the digitalization process in Germany, raise the minimum wage, build new houses, control rents, lower the election age to 16, and conditionally allow the legalization of marijuana. In the face of the severe situation of the new crown epidemic, the “traffic light” alliance also proposed measures such as establishing a new crown epidemic response team and improving the treatment of nursing staff.
“The most difficult of the three parties to cooperate is the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party.” Hu Chunchun said, for example, on the issue of whether to limit the speed on many highways in Germany, the Green Party supports environmental protection, while the Liberal Democratic Party opposes it on the grounds of personal freedom. . Hu Chunchun pointed out that we need to pay attention to whether the parties can comfort their traditional voters after making compromises in the future.
“The first question the new government has to answer is the internal distribution of power among the three parties and the running-in of the functions of various departments.” Cui Hongjian said that the parties originally had differences, and the difficulty of the three-party game is much higher than that of two-party coordination. . The China policy model formed during Merkel’s administration was that the Prime Minister’s Office formulated basic rules and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs handled specific matters. The transactional contradictions between China and Germany have accumulated to a certain extent, and then the Prime Minister’s Office will lead them, and they will be balanced through leaders’ meetings or intergovernmental dialogues.
However, it remains to be seen whether it is possible for the new government to form such a “division of labor”. Cui Hongjian said that the Green Party’s foreign and China experience is not as rich as the Social Democratic Party. If there is a disagreement with the Prime Minister’s Office, the Green Party may insist on its views and will not compromise quickly.
“How the new three-party government can embody a relatively consistent, unified, and balanced China policy in the dual contradictions of differences in departmental interests and differences in party political views is a problem in itself.” Cui Hongjian concluded.
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