The Kremlin missile offensive is the novelty of this phase of the war. According to the Kiev propaganda, 130 were thrown in just four days: a number that seems very close to reality. And the president Zelensky declares that since the beginning of the invasion the total has reached 2,811. Certainly, the effect of these attacks is also terrorist: in the capital a bomb struck a condominium and Kremenchuk there was the massacre of the shopping center. The objective of the operation, however, is essentially military: the raids have intensified to try to hinder the influx of Western weapons and ammunition to the front. If the Russians do not succeed, the fate of the battle could be reversed, canceling the supremacy of the Moscow artillery that has so far allowed the advance into Donbass: the Kremlin would lose the only positive result achieved since February 24th.
Hunt for new weapons
The map of the locations targeted in the last week is significant. On Monday and Tuesday there was a rage against the centers that are located close to the bridges over the river Dnepr: these are the decisive junctions for reaching the fighting area. Russian intelligence uses agents on the ground, radio interceptions and satellites to locate warehouses where Ukrainians complete training on the new vehicles or hide them while waiting to be transferred to the front. Tanks and tracked vehicles are mainly moved by trains and it is not difficult to follow them. The tracking of self-propelled vehicles on wheels – such as cannons – is more complex Caesar French or rocket launchers Himars Americans – who manage to use the roads. But there is one certainty: everyone to get into action in the Donbass must cross the Dnepr.
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The other prime target of the Russian offensive is the stockpiles of bullets, repair shops and fuel depots, often camouflaged within factories. In this case, the information comes above all from spies on the ground: often it is Ukrainian collaborators who have been serving the 007 in Moscow for years. But the reconnaissance drones also contribute, which silently follow the comings and goings of trucks carrying ammunition at night: every day the Ukrainian guns need five thousand shots.
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The bombs from the past
Moscow missile raids are often inaccurate. They are conducted from a great distance, to avoid defenses: Kiev’s forces have few modern anti-aircraft batteries, with a very limited capacity to counter these attacks. The Russians do not send their planes to the capital or to the western regions: they use long-range weapons of many models launched from land, sea or bombers.
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They are literally pulling out the entire arsenal, even using anti-ship systems to hit ground targets. The problem that alongside the latest generation devices – the Iskander and the Kalibrs – they use old-fashioned models such as the Tochka, the AS4 Kitchen or the Kh22 designed half a century ago: errors and malfunctions are frequent and the population pays the price. “The Russians are ready to accept the danger of serious collateral damage when they need to hit a military target – British intelligence warned -. The campaign against Ukrainian supply lines will continue: the lack of precise missiles and the lack of professionalism of their planners will cause more civilian victims ”.
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However, the quantity of modern missiles surprised analysts: two months ago it was believed that Moscow’s stocks were close to exhaustion. Instead every night the launches increase. As Pietro Batacchi, editor of Rid-Rivista Italiana Difesa wrote: “Despite the impact of the sanctions, the Russians are demonstrating the ability to support a strategic campaign of some importance by relying on an industrial apparatus which, for now, seems to respond better by continuing to produce missiles in large numbers. After all, missiles have always been a sector of excellence in the Russian military industry ”.