This week the Russia approved a whole package of reforms that will facilitate the mass recruitment of men in the army. Given this haste and the essence of the laws adopted by the authorities in recent months, Russian political scientists, journalists and lawyers are almost sure that a new wave of mobilisation in the country. British military intelligence also saw the prerequisites for it. According to his calculations, the creation of new military formations, which the General Staff of the Russian Federation announced in early June, will indeed be difficult to carry out without recruiting new soldiers. Those mobilized last fall have been at the front for almost a year now. According to independent analysts of Re:Russia, if the Ukrainian offensive is successful, the decision to declare a second wave of mobilization will become almost inevitable. The authors of the changes to the law themselves do not seem to hide their motivations. “This law was written for a great war, for the general mobilization. And this great war is already evident”, says one of them, the deputy Andrei Kartapolov.
The topic of the day is without a doubt the extension of the maximum age for military service, the so-called “law that deceived the Russians”. Initially, in fact, the reform of the army began with the promise that eighteen-year-olds would no longer be called to enlist. At the end of last year, the defense minister Sergei Shoigu proposed to postpone the age limits for military service by 3 years, calling men for compulsory service not from 18 to 27, but from 21 to 30. In this way, they explained, people enlisting in the army would be more mature. However, at the last moment, the deputies modified the text of the law “taking into account the political-military situation”. The minimum conscription limit has remained unchanged and therefore Russians can now be drafted from 18 to 30 years old. In addition, the authorities raised the upper age limit for eligible military personnel and those responsible for military service in the mobilization reserve by 5 years (up to 70 years for senior officers).
A no less controversial amendment concerns the prohibition for mobilized and conscripts of travelling abroad after receiving an electronic invitation. The law on electronic summons was adopted in April and initially stipulated that, among other prohibitions, 7 days after the receipt of the notification the summons would be imposed the ban on leaving Russia. In addition, the moment of “reception” of the summons is considered to be the moment it was sent by the military enlistment office, with the conscript or mobilized not immediately discovering that he has been enlisted. The amendment approved this week further tightens this process: now the person who receives the summons is deprived of the right to leave Russia immediately and not after a week.
Basically, the military reform is designed for those who escape military service and their numbers have increased since Russia invaded the Ukraine. While during the first wave of mobilization lawyers advised simply not to accept or ignore the summons, with the introduction of electronic enrollment this has become impossible. There remained the possibility of not appearing at the military office since only one was foreseen for this fine up to 3 thousand rubles (about 30 euros). From October 1, the amount of the fine will increase 10 times. The fines for failing to report abandonment of the place of residence or the country for a long period will also increase. At the same time, deliberate evasion of military duties has always been a criminal offense in Russia, but it concerned only those called up for compulsory service. The case of general mobilization, on the other hand, has not yet been regulated and the deputies of the Duma they promised to quickly correct this misconception. In the autumn, they will introduce criminal liability for evasion during mobilization into the law, with a fine of up to 500mila rubli (about 4,700 euros) and the imprisonment of up to 5 years.
The Russian opposition channel Medusa estimates that the new rules will increase the number of potential recruits by over 2 million. Another Russian newspaper, Novaya Gazeta Europepredicts that by 2028 the country’s mobilization potential will increase by nearly 5 million men. Meanwhile, the lawyer The art of Klygabroadcast on the independent channel Dozhd, recalled that in Russia there is no need to tighten the rules for military conscription: the military enlistment offices have never had problems in recruiting enough conscripts. “This was clearly done for another reason,” she said.