The rapid collapse of the Kabul government and the entry of the Taliban into the capital in a record time of no more than 11 days have caused a lot of questions about the truth of what happened in Afghanistan. To talk about this truth, one has to mention the country’s war and the competition for the interests of multiple international, regional, and local forces in the country.
In the era of former US President Donald Trump, the Taliban movement signed an agreement to restore peace in Afghanistan on February 29, 2020 in Qatar. Since then, the situation in Afghanistan has developed rapidly.
This agreement stipulates that the United States will begin gradually withdrawing troops from Afghanistan and will end the withdrawal process by the end of May 2021. However, Meili also adds some conditions to the withdrawal process, the most important of which is the Taliban’s commitment not to accept organizations or armed forces from outside the country. Personnel, especially Al-Qaida and its derivative organizations, such as ISIS, Nusra Front, etc.
However, the United States delayed the implementation of the agreement and did not completely withdraw its troops, while the Taliban controlled one Afghan province after another and soon entered the capital Kabul.
Vital
Afghanistan has extremely high importance. Its geographical location, population and religious composition have made it a magnet for foreign ambitions in history, from the Soviet Union, Russia to Iran, etc., and the United States is the number one.
It should be noted that all neighboring countries concerned about the Afghan issue believe that the situation in Afghanistan is directly related to their strategic security.
Afghanistan is bordered by three countries in the north, namely Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, with Iran in the west, China in the east, and Pakistan in the south.
In terms of geopolitics, Afghanistan is surrounded by big countries. These countries far surpass Afghanistan in terms of area or population. Therefore, it has always been the target of competing international powers.
Just to explain one point, countries with overlapping interests in Afghanistan include two superpowers (also permanent members of the UN Security Council)-China and the United States, and two major nuclear powers-Pakistan and India, and Iran.
re-locate
Some political analysts believe that the United States did not lose the war in Afghanistan in the traditional sense, but after military intervention caused huge economic losses, and the scope of hatred against the United States has been expanding, especially in the Islamic world. Under the circumstances, began to implement a new strategy to achieve political and military repositioning.
The Democrats and Republicans agreed to withdraw troops from Afghanistan to reinforce the above view. In the past 20 years, these losses are nothing compared to the scale of the goals the United States has achieved in the region, because the majority of the sacrifices were made in the Taliban-led war. The personnel are from the Afghan government forces and their followers.
There are also signs that the U.S. military will reposition the region in accordance with the new agenda and redistribute the fleet and naval forces in accordance with its plan. In these plans, the primary goal seems to be to contain China, and then based on ethnic and sectarian factors. Expand confrontation with regional countries.
Challenges and difficulties
However, the task of the Taliban movement is not simple. It faces various challenges and difficulties. This task does not start with achieving national reconciliation and establishing political stability, nor does it end with gaining international legitimacy.
In the second era of the Taliban’s rule, perhaps the biggest challenge it faced was to achieve national reconciliation and form a government.
In this war-torn country for more than 40 years, how to reach agreement and understanding with opponents and competitors will be the first challenge facing the Taliban, because achieving political stability is a prerequisite for establishing security and ending the state of war.
This will start with reaching an understanding with opponents and opponents, and it will require a political price to be paid in the form of concessions, which may be a painful choice for the party who is still enjoying the joy of victory.
There is no doubt that the leaders of the Taliban movement know very well that their military control over Afghanistan does not necessarily mean that they have eliminated the possibility of another war. Therefore, the country must achieve national reconciliation.
In addition, the Taliban also faces another domestic challenge, that is, freedom of speech and how to deal with the country’s mass media, because this will make it very difficult or even impossible to implement strict censorship of non-official media.
Challenges and concessions
Another challenge is related to the Taliban’s gaining international legitimacy, because the governance and the international community, diplomatic relations between countries and organizations will be affected by the weight of the United States.
Obviously, the Taliban have learned lessons from their past governance experience, because only three countries recognized their governments, namely Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
To be sure, the United States and other active countries on the international stage will not grant legitimacy to the Taliban before making concessions, and such concessions may make the movement lose its broad supporters at home and abroad.
The economic problem is the third challenge facing the Banliban. The management of the economy will become the most difficult task for the Taliban, because the transition from a state of war to construction and development is not an easy task, especially in view of the country’s infrastructure. Almost lost, and 70% of the country’s citizens are fighting poverty.
There is no doubt that the weak performance of the Taliban movement or the failure to reform the deteriorating economic situation will have a disastrous impact on Afghanistan and the future of the movement.
Another challenge lies in the drug problem and its response, because Afghanistan, especially after the United States invaded the country, has become one of the world‘s largest drug producers and exporters.
During the Taliban’s first rule, the movement’s laws banned the drug trade, and boldly burned and destroyed the drug planters, prosecuted and sanctioned its growers, the country’s drug plantation and trade experienced a significant decline.
However, despite the strong anti-drug propaganda supported by the US and NATO, the Afghan government has launched a campaign to combat the drug trade, but the cultivation, manufacturing and smuggling of drugs are still flourishing, and they have become the income of many politicians and some foreign powers. source.
The Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 11 days (European News Agency)Questions and decisions
Under these circumstances, people raised several questions, including: Will the shock in Afghanistan affect the Middle East?
To answer this question, a poll conducted by the United States showed that nearly 70% of people support the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, because most Americans believe that military intervention in foreign countries is a waste of their taxes.
The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has also been supported by Republicans, although former President Donald Trump and his supporters have caused some trouble.
This huge popular and political support for Joe Biden’s administration also led to the next question-where will the next destination for the United States to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan? It is expected to be Iraq.
Of course, it is not only the Middle Eastern countries but also the Balkan countries that allow the United States to repeatedly consider its decision to withdraw its troops. Russia under Putin tries to fill the vacuum left by the United States in a calm and gentle way through its old power and its good relations with Serbs and even Croats.
It must be emphasized that both the withdrawal of the occupying forces and their interventions will create a vacuum, imbalance and chaos of power, which will lead to endless internal conflicts.
Obviously, the Taliban won and successfully expelled the US military from its territory, but the most difficult challenge it faces lies in whether it can succeed in national governance.
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