Home » Yuan Bin: A series of questions about this round of epidemic in China | Epidemic tsunami | Omicron | Weird

Yuan Bin: A series of questions about this round of epidemic in China | Epidemic tsunami | Omicron | Weird

by admin

[The Epoch Times, January 03, 2023]The tsunami-like spread of the epidemic in a short period of time after China’s sudden liberalization can be said to have exceeded the current cognition and imagination of all medical experts.

On December 29, Zeng Guang, the 77-year-old former chief epidemiologist of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and a well-known epidemiologist, said in an interview that there is no accurate statistics now, and it is estimated that the number of new coronaviruses in Beijing may have exceeded 80%. up. Based on the current permanent population of about 22 million in Beijing, the current number of infected people in Beijing is 17.6 million, or nearly 18 million.

Zeng Guang also said that based on our experience in the spread of respiratory epidemics in the past, the number of people infected in the first wave of epidemics generally does not exceed 30%, and then the second and third waves come. The latter two waves will not be stronger than the first wave. But I have not encountered the first wave of contagion that is aggressive, and even quickly exceeds 50%, 60%, 70% or even 80%.

The actual number of infected people in Beijing may be higher than Zeng Guang estimated. A Beijing netizen said that based on his observations in Beijing, the infection rate of employees in all known units around him has exceeded 90%, and many of them are close to 100%. People who are not yet positive are really rare and very rare. According to his survey a week ago, the infection rate was about 70%. Most of the few people who were not infected a week ago became positive this week, and it is really a few people who are still asymptomatic. Therefore, the number of infected people is likely to exceed 18 million.

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Some netizens said that the most surprising thing is that relatives in several provinces in the south did not feel it a week ago, and suddenly it was sunny this week. . This is what makes Hurricane Omicron in China so different and terrifying. Like a poisonous wind, people fall down in groups, with fever, soreness and coughing. Such a rapid transmission speed and infection ability may also be a traditional human disease. Never before in history.

So so far, how many people in China have been infected in this round of epidemic?

Since there is no testing and the government has not established an antigen self-test reporting network, there is no basically accurate statistical data, and many people make predictions with the help of network data and models. Judging from the various predictions published on the Internet, they are relatively consistent The conclusion is: At present, most cities in the country have reached their peak, and the infection rate has exceeded 50%, and some cities have even exceeded 90%. According to the comprehensive average estimate, the national infection rate has exceeded 40%, which means that the number of infected people in the country is at least 560 million people, approaching or even exceeding 600 million people.

For comparison, at the meeting of the National Health and Medical Commission on the 21st, it was estimated that the number of people infected nationwide on the 20th was 248 million, and the infection rate reached 17.63%. The next 10 days are the time when the speed of infection in various places accelerates. Most cities reach their peak during these 10 days. Therefore, the calculation that the infection rate exceeds 40% on the 30th and the number of infected people reaches 600 million is not high, and it is more realistic. What do these data show?

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What does it mean that the infection rate exceeds 40% and the number of infected people reaches 600 million? It means that the infection rate of more than 20 days exceeds the infection rate of all countries in the world for 3 years!

Take the United States as an example. The United States is a country with a relatively high infection rate of the new crown in the world. According to recent data released by the US CDC, blood tests for antibodies show that more than 140 million people in the United States have been infected with the virus in the past three years, accounting for 43.3% of the total population. There are 14 states Infected more than half.

Comparing China’s recent extremely high infection rate with the global infection rate in the past three years, we have to ask, why did China’s infection rate exceed the global infection rate in the past three years after more than 20 days after the liberalization? Isn’t that strange?

From this association, three years ago, the new crown broke out in China and spread from China to the whole world. Three years later, after the CCP virus went around the world, it broke out again in China, and it was a larger-scale tsunami-like outbreak. It seems that this virus seems to be particularly difficult for China. Is this intriguing and thought-provoking? !

Not only that, but there are still a series of unanswered questions about this round of the epidemic in China. Some netizens concluded: “It’s too weird: first, many people’s life trajectory after unblocking is basically the same as before unblocking, and they suddenly became sunny; second, some people lived in the countryside and had no contact with outsiders, and they also became sunny. ; third, hundreds of millions of people across the country were suddenly infected with fever at the same time; fourth, the army did not appear to be infected on a large scale, so I wondered, could it be that Omicron has opened his eyes, and he also knows guns and is afraid of guns; After several generations of mutations, Micron has become as toxic as a cold, so why is it suddenly so toxic?”

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As for how the current epidemic will develop in the future, and how much harm will it cause? Since this hurricane-like spread of Omicron is unprecedented in history, it can be said that it has exceeded the predictable range of human infectious disease theory and experience, or subverted human past understanding of infectious diseases, so there is currently no An expert can make a clear judgment on this, and many problems are unknown!

Editor in charge: Gao Yi

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