White, yellow, orange and red zone: the rules change. In a phase in which the attention is rightly directed to the trend of the vaccination campaign and, especially in the last days, al Green Pass, the government has introduced new parameters to define restrictions on personal freedoms. And it did so in the same decree with which it established the green certification.
A theme, that of the colored areas that have accompanied the country since last November, which with the increasing infections pushed by the Delta variant risks becoming topical again. Because of this, InfoData has built the map that opens this piece, which has precisely the purpose of monitoring the progress of infections and hospitalizations, the criteria on the basis of which one passes from one color to another. And to change the color of the regions, which for the moment are all white, if the thresholds decided by the executive are exceeded.
There are three parameters taken into consideration, as per the decree law. The first concerns theweekly incidence of infections, or the new positives per 100 thousand inhabitants, in the three weeks preceding the survey. The second is the percentage of beds occupied in non-critical area from Covid patients, the third that of occupying the spaces in intensive care always by positive people at Sars-CoV-2. It will be worth specifying, it will be seen by analyzing the parameters, that the government’s decision was to give more weight to hospitalizations than to infections in determining the passage from one area to another. Returning to the map, an algorithm evaluates these parameters and compares them with those decided by the government, possibly changing the color of the regions.
The parameters introduced by the government say that we remain in white area if for three consecutive weeks the incidence of infections remains below the 50 almost every 100 thousand inhabitants. Should this threshold be exceeded, the regions remain blank if the occupancy of the beds in the non-critical area is less than 15% or if that of intensive care is below 10%. It is therefore sufficient that one of these last two conditions is met, and the less restrictive rules remain valid.
If all three of these parameters are exceeded, however, the yellow zone. The upper limit clicks a 150 almost every 100 thousand inhabitants, the 30% of the places occupied in the non-critical area and the 20% in intensive care. If all three are passed, you pass in orange zone. Again, if one of the two hospitalization parameters remains below the threshold, the region remains in the yellow zone.
The passage in the red zone takes place if, in addition to registering a weekly incidence higher than 150 almost per 100 thousand inhabitants in one of the three weeks prior to the survey, the occupancy rate of the beds in the non-critical area exceeds 40% and the one in intensive care on 30%. These latter conditions must both be met for the most severe restrictions to be introduced.
Unlike the government, which updates region colors on a weekly basis, this map does so by updating daily. Obviously, it’s just a monitoring system. What matters is the decree signed by the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza every Friday.
[Si ringrazia Andrea Gianotti per la scrittura dell’algoritmo alla base della mappa]