The symptoms of Covid 19, the disease triggered by Sars Cov 2, are now known. But a study by Imperial College London shows that the presence of seven symptoms all together predict ongoing infection. In fact, 75% of infected people have them all together. So having loss of smell, changes in taste, fever, chills, loss of appetite, persistent cough and muscle aches is highly predictive of Covid and therefore gives a high probability of a positive molecular swab (PCR) outcome. The research was conducted by Marc Chadeau-Hyam and Paul Elliott.
Experts compared the outcome of swabs carried out in Great Britain on 1,147,345 volunteers with the symptoms that they had possibly manifested a week before the PCR test. It was found that if all the individuals who present the seven symptoms together swab, in 70-75% of cases the test result would be positive. “In order to improve the molecular swab positivity rates and consequently to improve the control of virus transmission, we would propose to extend the list of symptoms used as triage to all 7 symptoms we identified ”, the authors conclude.
The importance of identifying Covid is even more pressing now that the flu could hit again next winter, taking advantage of the resumption of movements and activities. The next flu season, according to the virologist of the University of Milan Fabrizio Pregliasco, “It could be of medium intensity, with a number between 4 and 6 million cases”. In short, “it will probably not be a very heavy season, like the last ones preceding the Covid disaster, but this will also depend on how many get vaccinated for the flu”. And precisely to avoid the risk of twin epidemics, or a double epidemic, the White House immunologist Anthony Fauci, calls for the simultaneous administration of influenza vaccination and anti Covid-19 vaccination.
Confirmation comes from family doctors. “If it is true that the flu virus did not circulate last year, this year it can start walking again on the legs of people who have started moving and traveling again”, he explains. Claudio Cricelli, president of the Italian Society of General Medicine (Simg), who launches an appeal: “the 19 million flu vaccines that the regions have booked must be administered”.
The study on Plos Medicine