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Severe zero-clearing measures are still going on, and China’s economic situation and employment situation are very grim.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China was supposed to announce the data for the third quarter on Tuesday (18th), but it suddenly announced on the 17th that the release would be postponed without giving a reason.
The move was a rare move, as the data were released on time even with such poor economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 (shrinking 6.8%) and the second quarter of this year (up 0.4%).
With the economy almost stagnant in the second quarter, the performance of the third quarter has attracted much attention from the outside world.
Experts believe that the move may not be because of poor economic performance, but because the authorities want public opinion to focus on the 20th Congress itself.
Better expectations for the third quarter
“The delay in the release of economic data is not because of the poor economic recovery, but because of the ongoing party congress. The authorities hope that the media and the public will focus on the key messages brought by this large-scale event.” JLL Greater China District chief economist Bruce Pang told Reuters.
Pang Ming judged that the delay is unlikely to affect market sentiment, as most preliminary economic data point to a recovery in the third quarter.
In fact, various signs indicate that the economy should rebound to a certain extent in the third quarter of this year. At the press conference of the “20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China” on the morning of the 17th, Chinese officials said that from the current situation, the economy rebounded significantly in the third quarter.
Furthermore, Caixin and Reuters’ GDP growth estimates are 3.6% and 3.4% respectively, both significantly better than the previous quarter.
Compared with the economic predicament of countries around the world, “China has some unique advantages at the moment.” Xu Tianchen, an economic analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), told the BBC in Chinese, such as relatively low energy prices, strong manufacturing Production capacity and the government’s dominance over economic resources have enabled China’s economy to maintain positive growth even under great internal and external pressures.
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China’s unique dilemma
However, whether it is 3.6% or 3.4%, it is not only significantly lower than the GDP growth rate of about 6% before the epidemic, but even in the nearly three years after the epidemic, most quarterly GDP growth rates are still higher than this value.
At China’s “two sessions” earlier this year, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang set an annual economic growth target of 5.5%, which was described by many economists and institutions as conservative at the time.
However, to the outside world‘s surprise, China, which had properly controlled the epidemic in 2021, was frequently locked down in 2022 due to the attack of Omi Kron, many of which are economic centers such as Shanghai, Chengdu, and Shenzhen.
image source,REUTERS
Sudden stop of Shanghai Baiye during the epidemic
Due to the poor economic performance in the second quarter, China only achieved an economic growth rate of 2.5% in the first half of the year, which made it necessary to achieve a growth rate of more than 8% in the second half of the year to achieve the full-year target.
And if the growth rate in the third quarter is only about 3.5%, it is very unlikely to recover this part of the economic growth in the fourth quarter.
Xu Tianchen said that the economic growth in the first three quarters did not reach 5.5%, and in the context of the challenges of the epidemic and the global economic slowdown, the economy still faced considerable challenges in the fourth quarter.
“The 5.5% target has actually been downplayed. In the second half of the year, the focus has shifted from pursuing growth goals to avoiding economic stall and even recession,” said Xu Tianchen.
In China, when people look at the 20th Party Congress, they are trying to find any hints that the “zero” policy may be relaxed. However, judging from the various statements of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the “zero” policy will not be shaken, and the economic impact caused by the epidemic will continue.
Xu Tianchen believes that the continuous imbalance between different economic sectors in China has intensified during the epidemic. Among them, residents and private enterprises have been very vulnerable in recent years, which has become an issue that affects the sustainability of China’s economic growth and long-term competitiveness, which urgently needs to be solved in the next five years. be resolved.
To make matters worse, according to the statistics of the Chinese Ministry of Education, the number of college graduates in 2022 is expected to be 10.76 million, an increase of 1.67 million year-on-year. In the years of economic downturn, however, a large number of laborers entered the job market, resulting in a sharp increase in employment pressure.
In China’s official context, “employment protection” is repeatedly emphasized, because underemployment means social instability.