The 6.18 e-commerce promotion, which is extremely indicative in the consumer sector, may have become a sign that consumer funds have bottomed out.
Although this year’s popularity is not as good as in previous years, under the background of the three-month decline in consumer stocks, 6.18 may have become a key node for consumer stocks to bottom out and funds to buy bottoms. Some fund managers emphasized that promotional activities will bring related domestic products Significantly positive, it is expected that varieties with emerging consumption characteristics will have performance and stock price elasticity.
The annual 6.18 Shopping Festival promotion reached its climax in the past weekend. This year, the shopping festivals of e-commerce sites such as JD.com and Taobao will continue until June 20. Since the expected retaliatory consumption at the beginning of this year did not appear, and subsequent consumption has become increasingly flat, this has also led to continued sharp adjustments in consumer stocks.
However, with the advent of the shopping festival, a group of consumer stocks heavily held by funds began to rebound, which also showed the sensitivity of institutional funds to the timing of June 18. Taking Yinhua Fuyu Theme Fund, a large-scale public offering product managed by Jiao Wei, as an example, the two cosmetics stocks related to this shopping festival accounted for nearly 15% of its total positions. The information disclosed by relevant cosmetics companies shows that as much as 80% of the total revenue comes from e-commerce channels.
Even QDII (Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor) funds managed by public funds are actively buying related consumer products in the US stock market. After the discount e-commerce website Vipshop officially launched the 6.18 special sale in June, its stock price has soared by 25% this month. Even e-commerce apps that have been almost eliminated by competition such as Mogujie have reaped a rebound.
When it comes to online consumption, the equity investment team of Orient Fund pointed out that there are still some differences in the market’s expectations for this year’s June 18, mainly because the overall consumption environment has slightly disturbed residents’ confidence. As the shopping festival approaches, we learned from various channels that different platforms have begun to make relevant plans, including the platforms of Taobao and Douyin. In order to cope with the current consumption environment, measures and key adjustments have been adopted to varying degrees.
Orient Fund believes that, on the whole, the data of shopping festival promotions will have a greater impact on the overall consumption sector, especially for cosmetics, the main reason is the intensification of the siphon effect, which leads to the growth rate of promotions that can reflect the growth of platforms and brands. growth potential. In the early days of the shopping festival, the main starting point was promotion and drainage. In recent years, as the industry has gradually matured, consumers have sufficient expectations for cheap festival promotional products, which has led to a part of the daily turnover concentrated in the discount period to release. Therefore, it is now necessary to take the growth rate of GMV (gross merchandise volume) during the big promotion period of the head platform as an important reference for analyzing the development of platforms, industries, and brands.
Recently, consumer ETFs have been highly sought after by funds, which also highlights that June 18 may have become a key window for gaming consumption. The data shows that consumer ETF funds have had net inflows for 9 consecutive days, with a cumulative net inflow of over 600 million yuan.
Some funders believe that consumer stocks are already very attractive no matter from the perspective of valuation or gaming. Dong Guangyang, a private equity fund manager, believes that overall, the pessimistic expectations of consumption have fully reflected the short-term downturn in the industry, and the valuations or stock prices of many sectors have returned to the bottom level of last year. Therefore, if viewed from a relatively long-term perspective, the valuation advantages of the consumer industry have become prominent.
Recently, many fund managers have also emphasized that consumer stocks may usher in a recovery in stock prices.
Yu Huan, manager of the Great Wall Jiurun Mixed Fund, told the Securities Times reporter that under the current market background, the trend of consumption classification is obvious, showing a K-shaped differentiation state, that is, “consumption upgrade” and “pursuing the ultimate price-performance ratio” exist at the same time, so creating funds that meet the needs of ordinary people There may be investment opportunities in consumer upgrade products that yearn for a better life and companies that launch cost-effective products.
Yu Huan believes that although the current economy is in a weak recovery situation, the recovery trend has not changed, and a certain process is required. The strength of future recovery depends on the strength of steady growth. We are full of confidence in the future of China’s economy. The stock market is a barometer of economic development, and it is expected that as the economy gradually improves, the capital market will also perform positively.
Some fund managers whose core positions are highly “e-commerce” are more sensitive to investment opportunities during the critical window of June 18. The reporter noticed that the top ten holdings of Qianhai United Yongtao Fund managed by Wang Jing almost all point to women’s consumer goods that account for a large proportion of e-commerce revenue. She also recently pointed out that there is a high probability that the sales of medical cosmetics will usher in the peak season in the middle of the year.
Wang Jing believes that in this 6.18 live broadcast, the number of single products that cosmetic companies have cooperated with Taobao has increased, and from the recent live broadcast data, it can be seen that users have purchased a considerable amount of domestic cosmetic products. In addition, medical beauty terminal institutions also take advantage of the shopping festival to carry out store activities to attract new and old users to purchase and consume. It is expected that medical beauty cosmetics companies will have strong revenue recovery flexibility in 2023.
(Article source: Securities Times)
Article source: Securities Times
Original title: 6.18 e-commerce big promotion “ignited” consumer stocks may welcome a rebound window period
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