(Original title: Well-known tens of billions of private equity holdings are exposed)
The disclosure of the third quarterly report of the listed company in 2022 is coming to an end, and the 10-billion-dollar private equity swap path has been exposed. Gaoyi Asset has newly entered BYD and increased its position in Hikvision; Chongyang Investment has increased its holdings in Baosteel, and Ningquan Assets has reduced its holdings in Huaneng Hydropower ; Jinglin Assets added Han’s Laser, Yunzhou Capital built a warehouse garden biology, CSG A, etc. It is understood that in the volatile market environment in the third quarter of this year, many private equity firms of tens of billions of dollars have reduced their positions, focusing on high-end manufacturing and growth sectors, such as new energy, semiconductors, machinery and equipment, etc. consumption and other sectors.
The latest positions of a number of tens of billions of private equity exposed Gao Yi, Chongyang and other stock market value comparisons
According to statistics from the Private Equity Pai Pai Network, as of October 28, a total of 36 private equity products of 10 billion yuan have entered the list of the top ten tradable shares of 218 listed companies, with a total stock market value of 70.373 billion yuan. Among them, 34 listed companies were increased and 50 were newly entered; 46 listed companies were reduced, and 88 shares remained unchanged.
From the perspective of private equity institutions, Gaoyi Assets, Chongyang Investment, Ruifeng Huibang, Jinhui Rongsheng, Yingshui Investment, Xuanyuan Investment, Ruiyang Investment and other tens of billions of private equity holdings at the end of the third quarter of this year. The market value of A-share positions is relatively high.
Specifically, according to Wind data, as of October 29, several products managed by Gao Yi Asset Deng Xiaofeng appeared in the list of the top ten tradable shareholders of 22 listed companies, with a total stock market value of over 17.1 billion yuan. Deng Xiaofeng increased his position in Zijin Mining in the third quarter, holding 918 million shares and holding a stock market value of 7.195 billion yuan; at the same time, he newly entered BYD, holding 7.54 million shares, holding a stock market value of 1.9 billion yuan. However, it reduced its holdings of aerospace electrical appliances, Western Materials, Quecheng shares, AVIC and many other stocks.
Gao Yi Linshan No. 1 Yuanwang Fund managed by Gao Yi Asset Feng Liu has appeared on the list of shareholders of 14 listed companies, with a total market value of 20.842 billion yuan. Feng Liu continued to increase the position of Hikvision against the trend, and the number of shares held increased to 432 million shares, and the market value of the stock market reached 13.141 billion yuan at the end of the period; he also added two new stocks, Shunxin Agriculture and Guorui Technology, to increase the position of Xinbang. Pharmaceuticals, Dongcheng Pharmaceutical, Megmeet, etc.; but underweight Hengli Hydraulics, Tongrentang, Lingrui Pharmaceuticals, etc.
At the end of the third quarter of this year, Chongyang Investment, led by Qiu Guogen, appeared on the list of the top ten tradable shareholders of 11 listed companies, with a total market value of 9.142 billion yuan. Among them, Baosteel has greatly increased its holdings, and its two products hold a total of 188 million shares, with a stock market value of 989 million yuan at the end of the period; at the same time, it also newly entered Fuyuan Medicine, and still holds heavy positions in SDIC Power, Xinhecheng, SF Express Holding, etc.; but reduced holdings of Rui Ming Technology, Excellent New Energy, etc.
In the third quarter of this year, Ningquan Assets, founded by Yang Dong’s “public and private”, newly purchased Wuzhou Special Paper and increased its position in Feiliks; slightly increased its position in Leyard, and its shareholding increased to 53.912 million shares, and its stock market value at the end of the period Nearly 300 million yuan; however, Huaneng Hydropower was reduced, and the shareholding dropped to 29.4279 million shares, and the stock market value at the end of the period was 202 million yuan.
The 100 billion private equity Jinglin Assets increased its positions in Han’s Laser in the third quarter. The three products held a total of 20.2398 million shares, and the stock market value held at the end of the period was 528 million yuan; at the same time, it increased its holdings of Fuan shares; Shenzhen Airport.
As of October 29, the new 10 billion private equity capital has appeared in the list of the top ten tradable shareholders of 6 listed companies including Garden Biology, CSG A, Jinzhi Technology, etc., but the total stock market value is only 567 million Yuan.
In addition, two private equity funds, Ruifeng Huibang and Jinhui Rongsheng, significantly increased their positions in Kweichow Moutai against the trend in the third quarter, and the number of shares held were respectivelyIt increased to 6.41 million shares and 7.4876 million shares, and the stock market value at the end of the period reached 12.003 billion yuan and 14.020 billion yuan respectively.
Private equity in the volatile market has lightened up and deployed high-end manufacturing and growth sectors
It is understood that due to the large fluctuations in the market, many private equity firms have lightened their positions in the third quarter to explore high-performance stocks, focusing on high-end manufacturing, growth sectors, and pharmaceuticals on the left.
Star Stone Investment said that private placements overall reduced their positions in the third quarter. At the end of September, private equity fund stock positions were only 57.5%. Judging from the three quarterly reports released so far, the proportion of private placements in growth sectors and cyclical sectors has changed a lot. The number of companies with changes in the proportion of private equity holdings in the electronics, pharmaceutical biology, mechanical equipment, basic chemical, power equipment, computer, and automotive industries is more than 20. On the whole, private equity institutions still pay attention to the impact of the current macro environment on performance, and still have a preference for growth sectors as a whole.
Mingze Investment Fund Manager Xi Peng said frankly that, according to observations and exchanges with peers, unlike the frequent increase in positions in the second quarter, private equity institutions increased or decreased their positions in the third quarter. The concentration of stocks has dropped, and the overall position has dropped significantly. Popular private placement stocks are concentrated in the manufacturing sector, such as photovoltaic equipment, chemical products, semiconductors, high-end alloys, etc. Some are also shifting to the pharmaceutical and medical device industries, focusing on “promoting the construction of a healthy China, Put the protection of people’s health in a strategic position of priority development, and implement the national strategy to actively respond to population aging.”
In addition, Wang Puxiu, a wealth management partner of private equity Pai Pai.com, said that from the three quarterly reports disclosed so far, most private equity companies prefer high-end manufacturing, among which new energy, semiconductor and mechanical equipment sectors have significantly increased their positions; at the same time, military industry And pharmaceutical biology, information technology and other sectors have also received funding support. In the short term, these stocks are expected to continue to benefit from the expected improvement in fund position replenishment and valuation repair, and the current allocation value has become prominent; in the medium and long term, these sectors are in line with the positioning of high-quality economic development and will benefit from Policy and financial support have relatively high allocation value after favorable policies have entered the intensive catalytic stage.
Liu Zelong, a researcher at the Haomai Fund Research Center, also said that more than half of the companies have disclosed their third-quarter reports, and the top private placements are mainly focused on optimizing the structure.
The performance of listed companies in the third quarter is clearly differentiated, and private equity focuses on high-prosperity industries
China Fund Daily reporter Ren Ziqing
Recently, the three quarterly reports of listed companies have been intensively disclosed, and private equity institutions have also closely tracked them. A number of private equity firms said that the overall third-quarter report is still in a weak state, and the structural differentiation of individual stocks is more obvious. Focus on the performance of individual stocks, explore opportunities for continued prosperity and marginal improvement in prosperity, and adjust investment portfolios in a timely manner. In the future, the layout will focus on carbon neutrality, biomedicine, national defense and military industries.
Listed companies are clearly differentiated in the third quarterly reports, focusing on investment opportunities with high prosperity
With the continuous disclosure of the three quarterly reports of listed companies, the profitability of the industry and individual stocks has gradually emerged. From the perspective of Star Stone Investments, the third quarterly reports of listed companies are still weak as a whole, and in the future, they will still pay attention to opportunities for continued prosperity and marginal improvement in prosperity. On the one hand, there are still many sub-sectors in the growth sector that are in a period of high prosperity, and relative prosperity still supports stock prices in a weak economic environment. Therefore, some companies in a reasonable valuation range may have opportunities; On the other hand, the prosperity and valuation of some industries are at the bottom level, and attention should be paid to structural opportunities with signs of performance improvement, such as downstream industries where cost suppression has weakened and demand has gradually recovered.
Panyao Assets will focus on the changes in the industry’s prosperity in the third quarter and the performance of individual stocks. Panyao Assets said that it will analyze the reasons for the performance that exceeds and falls short of expectations. If there is indeed a medium-to-long-term change in the fundamentals, it will choose an opportunity to increase and reduce positions. For the performance exceeding market expectations, if the short-term market attention is raised, a more reasonable or even high valuation will be given, and profit-taking will be carried out.
Xi Peng, manager of Mingze Investment Fund, also said that with the intensive disclosure of the third quarterly reports, the structural differentiation of individual stocks is more obvious. Layout opportunities after individual stocks pull back. For individual stocks whose performance exceeds or falls short of expectations, the company’s profit forecast model will be updated through company research and Porter’s Five Forces analysis, and then the allocation ratio will be adjusted accordingly.
Wu Junfeng, investment director of Qinghequan Capital, pointed out that export-related industries have generally performed well this year. On the one hand, external demand is strong, and on the other hand, the RMB exchange rate has depreciated. Therefore, the profitability of the export sector this year is generally better than expected. For example, individual stocks related to overseas photovoltaics and energy storage have a low penetration rate, and their future growth should be sustainable. However, industries related to domestic demand or domestic economic activities generally did not perform well this year. Such industries need to pay attention to the trend of the epidemic and changes in epidemic prevention policies in the future.
Wu Junfeng further stated that the earnings of listed companies include trends and cyclical changes, and it is necessary to distinguish whether it is caused by exogenous or endogenous variables. Exogenous variables are the environment and policies that have a major impact on it, and the company itself cannot decide or change it. Such companies can increase allocations when the exogenous variables improve. Endogenous variables refer to the changes in the industry cycle to which the listed company belongs. This is another logic and needs to be analyzed one by one.
The market continues to release positive signals, and most private placements maintain medium-to-high positions
The recent A-share market has been full of twists and turns. After a strong rebound in May and June, the third quarter has undergone a sharp adjustment, and the shock is very strong. Wu Junfeng believes that the core problems affecting the market this year are that the fundamentals underestimate the suppression of profits caused by epidemic control and control, and the liquidity level underestimates the level of interest rate hikes caused by overseas high inflation. In the future, with the recovery of fundamentals and the relaxation of liquidity, risk appetite will naturally rise.
Star Stone Investment pointed out that this is mainly affected by the concentrated release of internal and external risks. Overseas, higher-than-expected U.S. inflation led the market to continue to raise interest rate expectations, U.S. bond interest rates have been rising, suppressing global asset performance from the valuation side, the overall depreciation of non-U.S. currency exchange rates, superimposed on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has intensified in stages, and capital risk appetite has emerged. significantly decreased. Domestically, local epidemics have spread, consumption and real estate are still in a weak state, the overall economic expectations and trading sentiment of the market are relatively weak, and the impact of overseas factors and negative factors in industries and companies on the stock market has been amplified in stages. After the shock and correction in the third quarter, the current stock market valuation has implied extremely pessimistic expectations. If the time is slightly extended, the implementation of the domestic medium-term policy will be further improved, the strong support for the economy will gradually emerge from the accelerated implementation of the economic policy of stabilizing growth, and the market confidence will gradually come out of the bottom with the positive signal of economic recovery.
Under the volatile and weakened market this year, the overall performance of many well-known private equity managers is under pressure. Lin Peng, chairman and general manager of Harmony Huiyi, recently apologized to the holder and admitted that the past two years have been the most difficult time for him to work in the industry for more than 20 years.
Lin Peng said that in the past, he was accustomed to using “reverse thinking” and “mean reversion” to capture opportunities for high-quality companies to kill by mistake, which is applicable in most environments. However, in the market environment where various policies and black swan events have appeared frequently in the past two years, mean reversion may produce very large deviations, which is especially reflected in the investment in Hong Kong stocks.
Wu Junfeng also reflected on the investment during the year. He said, “This year is a weak and volatile market, so we should increase the intensity of flexible band operations. The source of income of Qinghequan has always been to choose advantageous industries and high-quality companies to hold for a long time. We have encountered many difficulties in the market environment. We have conducted in-depth reflections and discussions on this, including adding quantitative aids and some disciplinary requirements in trading, which are helpful in recent investment, and follow-up will also be helpful. Research in this area will be intensified.”
In addition, in terms of positions, private placements in the third quarter decreased significantly compared with the second quarter. According to the data of the private equity Pai Pai network portfolio master, at the end of the third quarter of 2022, the stock private placement index was 79.85%. Compared with the position index of more than 88% at the end of the second quarter, there was a significant decrease, but at a medium to high level. Private placements for position operations still account for the majority.
Lin Peng revealed that the overall position of the product is currently maintained at a medium-high level, insisting on industry dispersion and individual stock concentration, and at the same time trying to maintain a relatively balanced structure in all aspects. A shares are mainly deployed in the digital economy, consumer electronics, auto parts, photovoltaics, basic chemicals, transportation, etc.; Hong Kong shares are mainly invested in the Internet, sports apparel, food and beverages, innovative drugs, etc.
Panyao Assets told reporters that from the perspective of the overall equity position, it is currently maintained at around 70%. In terms of investment direction, two main lines are followed: first, weak cyclical industries with low correlation with the macro economy, such as defense and military industry, new energy and other highly deterministic sub-fields; second, in the past period of time subject to In the direction of unfavorable fields such as policies and industry data, with the continuous marginal improvement of policies, the fundamental logic of the industry will also be further strengthened, such as biomedicine, travel chain and other directions.
Xi Peng said that under the continuation of the game of stock capital and the turbulent market, the “seesaw effect” is inevitable. With the completion of the company’s third quarterly report disclosure, companies with better-than-expected performance have performed better in this round of volatile markets. The optimal allocation of individual stocks can better adapt to the market environment. Now that the market has dropped to a historically low level, Mingze will still focus on the long-term optimistic areas of carbon neutrality, safety, technological innovation, and securities companies. Recently, it has gradually increased energy-saving transformation in the theme of carbon neutrality, superimposed scientific and technological innovation and high-end manufacturing of intelligent machines, oil and gas equipment manufacturing in the theme of energy security, and basic chemicals and fine chemicals in industrial chain and supply chain security.
Since the third quarter, 24,000 surveys have been conducted to deploy private equity in 2023, saying that investment is now cost-effective
China Fund News reporter Liu Ming
Although the market has been sluggish since the beginning of this year, especially in the third quarter, there have been sharp fluctuations again, but according to the survey data of listed companies, private equity is still actively participating in the survey, and some private equity has already begun to deploy in 2023. The boom track is still the favorite of the organization. Some private equity investors bluntly said that the current valuation of A-shares is very cost-effective.
Active research since the third quarter
Boom track is popular
Although the market has fluctuated greatly since the third quarter, the enthusiasm for private equity research has not diminished. Several statistics show that the number of private equity research is very high. Zhu Taotao, a product researcher at Zhongzhi Fund, said that since the third quarter, the participation of private equity institutions in research has also increased significantly, and fund managers have increased the frequency of communication with listed companies in order to obtain the latest operating conditions and related industry development trends, and to better evaluate Intrinsic value of listed companies.
Liu Zelong, a researcher at Haomai Fund Research Center, told a reporter from China Fund News that according to statistics, there were more than 14,000 private placement surveys in the third quarter, among which power equipment, medical biology, semiconductors, consumer electronics and computers have received high market attention. Zhu Taotao also said that according to the statistics of choice, since the third quarter, private equity has surveyed listed companies 24,000 times, among which Danshuiquan, Panjing, Xitai, and Juming are the managers who have participated in the most surveys. Investigated more than 300 listed companies.
Zhu Taotao told China Fund News that he learned from private equity institutions that the third quarterly report is an important node for evaluating the company’s fundamentals and performance, and it is also an important window for the market to look forward to the 2023 boom and industry track. Because there is a performance gap of almost half a year from the next regular disclosure.
Wang Puxiu, a wealth management partner of private equity Pai Pai.com, also said that with the arrival of the peak period for the disclosure of the third quarterly report, institutional research has ushered in a small peak since September. In the past month or so, more than 1,600 listed companies have been investigated by institutions. Among them, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, machinery and equipment, electronics and biomedicine have maintained a relatively high popularity, and the market value is between 10 billion and 20 billion yuan. The companies among them are more favored by institutions.
Zhu Taotao said that according to the first-level industries of Shenwan, machinery and equipment, pharmaceutical biology, new energy, electronics and other sectors have received the largest number of institutional surveys; in terms of listed companies, Rongbai Technology participated in the survey of 415 private equity companies, and Mindray Medical participated in the survey. Investigated 348 private equity companies, Estun participated in the survey of 199 private equity companies, and Thundersoft participated in the survey of 139 private equity companies.
A number of private equity firms also told China Fund News that they will focus on new energy, semiconductors, information security, new chemical materials and other booming tracks. Xi Peng, manager of Mingze Investment Fund, said that Mingze Investment has recently focused on research in many directions. Affected by the energy crisis, industries that can replace European production capacity, such as new chemical materials, the military industry under policy expectations, and industrial mother machines in the field of import substitution , photovoltaic equipment and auto parts with better-than-expected performance, oil and gas equipment under the accelerated capital expenditure of oil and gas exploration, basic software and operating systems in the field of information security, etc.
Wu Junfeng, Investment Director of Qinghequan, we try our best to deduce many elements to 2023. First, the fundamental factors are mainly the control of the epidemic, which is flat or slightly improved. Second, the liquidity environment is likely to change positively, and the US has raised interest rates to the second half. For growth industries, it is the state where valuation suppression is lifted. Therefore, the direction should be to look for growth industries. Third, in terms of subdivided tracks and industries, it is necessary to find the prosperity that can be deduced.
For example: 1) The penetration rate of new energy vehicles will definitely slow down next year when it reaches this position, but many subdivided or new technology applications, such as PET copper foil, integrated die casting, including brake-by-wire and some areas of intelligence, are due to penetration The rate is still very low, and it has its own independent α that can be mined.
2) This year is a year plagued by the high price of silicon materials. With the release of silicon material production capacity, it is a high probability that the price of silicon materials will drop next year. We need to deduce to find the industries and companies that benefit from the price reduction of silicon materials, which links can retain the profits of the price reduction of silicon materials, and which industries benefit from the price reduction of silicon materials, and their IRRs will increase, and we can also explore them.
3) In the past few years, new materials that have been at the bottom of the cycle or fighting price wars include chemicals, and even some building materials companies that have been affected by the explosion of the real estate industry chain this year. If there is steady growth next year, the liberalization of finance will definitely exert its strength, and infrastructure companies that benefit from this can also pay attention.
Panyao Assets said that recently, the company’s investment and research team has focused on two important directions of security and development, and has carried out in-depth tracking and coverage of long-term tracking fields such as national defense security, energy security, information security and other sectors, focusing on “development” to cover new energy, Conduct in-depth research in the fields of semiconductors, biomedicine and other fields.
Star Stone Investment Co., Ltd. pays more attention to the sectors or companies that are expected to continue to improve or show marginal improvement in the medium and long-term supply and demand pattern, especially in industries that focus on domestic demand.
Star Stone Investment said that from a medium-term perspective, in a macro environment where domestic policies have a strong supporting force on the economy and overseas economies are gradually falling into recession, the trend of domestic demand upward and external demand downward is more obvious. On the supply side, industries dominated by external demand will carry out large-scale capital expenditures in 2021, while domestic demand-driven industries are generally sluggish. . On the whole, the prosperity of domestic and foreign demand may be exchanged, that is, the competition pattern of domestic demand-related industries is better. In an environment where the overall competitive landscape is optimized, companies with strong competitiveness in the industry may have better performance elasticity.
Private equity says that investment is now cost-effective and can be strategically deployed
At a time when the market is relatively turbulent, a number of private equity and tripartite institutions said that from the perspective of asset allocation, the current equity market allocation is cost-effective and can be strategically deployed.
Xi Peng said that from the perspective of the equity risk premium measured by (1/PE-10-year treasury bond yield), the indicator is currently close to the upper track, indicating that the risk appetite of A-share investors is at a historically low level. From the data point of view, this position shows that the current A-share valuation is very cost-effective.
Panyao Assets also said that the investor sentiment has been slightly pessimistic recently, but the stock market is a continuous cycle, and the emotional lows and the extremely low valuations of the market caused by each wave of extreme pessimism are good for gradual layout and seeding. At this stage, there is still strong confidence in the direction of future policy implementation and the medium and long-term macroeconomic fundamentals. Against this background, the market decline is worth making strategic arrangements.
Liu Zelong, a researcher at the Haomai Fund Research Center, also said that from the perspective of asset allocation, the current equity market index’s stock and bond price ratio is outstanding. Investors can actively deploy equity in the case of insufficient equity allocation according to their individual risk tolerance.
Zhu Taotao also believes that the current market position is at the bottom again, and investors should be patient enough. The valuation quantile of wind and all A in the whole market is about 30%, and the yield difference between stocks and bonds is 3.51%, which is at a high level in history. Objectively, the market has sufficient margin of safety and cost performance, and investors should not be overly pessimistic.
Zhu Taotao said that the core issues facing the country in the short term are economic recovery and real estate data. The real estate situation is expected to gradually stabilize relatively next year, but with the recession in Europe and the United States, shrinking overseas demand is inevitable. Under this circumstance, it is especially important to reduce the impact of the epidemic on the economy as soon as possible so that the domestic cycle can operate. Therefore, for investors, it is also a good time to gradually expand the allocation on the left side, and the probability of making profits in the medium and long term is high.