February 15, byCITIC Construction InvestmentThe “Winning in the Year of the Tiger 2022 Spring Investment Strategy Conference” was held online.
CITIC Construction InvestmentsecuritiesA new lineup of chiefs of 34 research teams of the Institute made a collective appearance. Thousands of financial institutions and more than 20,000 domestic and foreign institutional investors participated in the conference.
CITIC Construction InvestmentChen Guo, chief strategy officer, said that from the perspective of spring, in terms of the whole year, now may be a better layout stage. After the Spring Festival, the market will have a wave of counterattack or rebound, and this rebound is not over yet.
CITIC Construction Investment’s financial engineering and major asset allocation andFund researchchiefanalystDing Luming said that A shares will bottom out and rebound. Although there is a risk of double bottoming in May and June, it is expected to rebound from oversold in February.
Huang Wentao, chief economist and chief macro analyst at China Securities Investment Corporation, said that this year, at least for now, the probability of forming an index-level market is not high, and structural opportunities are switching from the logic of steady growth to large consumption. layout.
Chen Guo: The short-term counterattack of A-shares is not complete, and the mid-term reversal will have to wait
Chen Guo, chief strategy officer of CITIC Construction Investment, said in his keynote speech “Twisted Roads, Steady Words First” that the short-term counterattack of A-shares has not yet been completed, and the medium-term reversal will have to wait.
He believes that the market is more complex this year.Since the beginning of the year, the market has experienced a round of adjustment, especiallyGEM refers toThe number of adjustments is relatively large. After the Spring Festival, the market will have a wave of counterattack or rebound, and this rebound is not over yet.
From the perspective of spring, there are still many challenges in the market in the next quarter or so. Of course, looking at a longer period of time, for example, in terms of the whole year, now may be a better layout stage.
Chen Guo said that the reason why he previously proposed that there will be no New Year’s Eve market this year is due to the following reasons. First, rising expectations for Fed rate hikes have triggered global liquidity crunch and valuation revisions. two is,performanceDownside concerns. For the value sector, the main concerns are the strength and sustainability of stable growth and the effect of easing credit. For the growth sector, the main concern is that the performance growth rate is low and the industry competition pattern is deteriorating.Third, technically, absolute gainers stop losses and magnify the decline, and quantifyfundIncrease market beta to a certain extent.
Chen Guo said that the current market can be compared to 2012.At the same time, the economic downturn cycle has widenedcurrency, Loose credit policy. It is also facing overseas pressure (the European debt crisis in 2012, the global interest rate hike is expected this year). 2012 market review revelation: economic downturn and policy support are repeatedly intertwined. This year, the A-share market will face four major challenges: the bottoming period of the economy brings downward pressure on performance, the rhythm and intensity of policies, the Fed’s rate hike cycle, and the US mid-term election year’s China policy.
Against this background, Chen Guo believes that the market environment must be gradually improved, and then gradually turn to a more aggressive structure. He suggested grasping the “three lows and one change”: stocks with low prices, low valuations, and low crowdedness with the expectation of marginal improvement in fundamentals.
Ding Luming: It is expected to rebound from oversold in February
Ding Luming, chief analyst of financial engineering and major asset allocation and fund research at CITIC Construction Investment, said that in the past three years, the timing yield of major assets and the market of CITIC Construction Investment has remained at a very high level. 24% cumulative gain.
Ding Luming said that after sorting out the medium-term outlook and basic assumptions of major asset classes given at the end of last year, it is still clear and firm that the entire system and general conclusions will not be changed.
Ding Luming believes that A shares will bottom out and rebound. Although there is a risk of double bottoming in May and June, it is expected to rebound from oversold in February. A significant growth-style raid is expected to appear in February, and the low-valued sector suggests an appropriate exit from the rotation.industry, recommendednon-ferrous metalsnational defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronics, basic chemical industry, etc.
He believes that the position around 3300 should be a safe margin even in June. Therefore, in the case of the joint interference of such emotions and events, the market has already given a relatively safe medium and long-term low in advance.
Huang Wentao: The probability of index-level market this year is not high
Huang Wentao, Chief Economist and Chief Macro Analyst of CITIC Construction Investment, pointed out in the keynote speech “Being Hardened to Achieve Success” that in 2022, opportunities and risks coexist, and our mission is to find certainty in uncertainty. The world’s biggest risk event in 2022 may come from the Fed tightening monetary policy ahead of schedule and the evolution of the new crown epidemic. China’s biggest investment opportunities will lie in the release of counter-cyclical adjustment policies and the rapid development of advanced manufacturing and emerging industries under the Jugla cycle.
He believes that this year is a very important year, and steady growth is undoubtedly the first and most important task.Judging that the two sessions may be set at 5.5%GDPThe growth rate target, coupled with the maintenance of policy stability and the natural restoration of growth momentum, it is very hopeful that the annual GDP will reach 5.9%. At the bottom of the first quarter, the second quarter started to stabilize and rebounded, and the third and fourth quarters will be even better. Therefore, the economic growth is low before and high, which is the rhythm of growth.
Monetary policy returns to normal, various global assets need to be re-priced, and the logic driven by liquidity needs to be changed to one driven by fundamentals. Therefore, it is still necessary to reduce the expected return on investment of various assets around the world.
He said that the external impact of the A-share market is the impact of the tightening of U.S. monetary policy and monetary policy on U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks. The internal impact is the decline in earnings growth and less-than-expected policy easing. At least from the current point of view this year, the probability of forming an exponential market is not high, and structural opportunities are switching from the logic of steady growth to large consumption, and everyone must make arrangements in advance.
(Article Source:brokerageChina)