After a bad start in January, brokerage gold stock portfolios were released in February: “medium-prefixed” and “high dividend” targets appeared together.
Since the beginning of the new year, the spring market performance has been lower than expected. According to Choice data, nearly 2,800 A-shares have experienced a cumulative decline of no less than 20% in January this year. As of the close of trading on January 31, in January 2024, the yield rates of each brokerage’s gold stock portfolio were officially released. According to Wind statistics, in January this year, the average return rate of 40 brokerage gold stock portfolios was -14.7%. For the whole of last year, the average return rate of 42 brokerage gold stock portfolios was -12.35%. However, in comparison, “medium prefix” and “high dividend” still clearly outperformed the general trend.
As of now, many brokerages have successively released their gold stock portfolios for February this year. According to statistics, among the gold stocks that have been announced for February, the “medium prefix” and “high dividend” targets appear more frequently.
Targets with “medium prefix” and “high dividend” are highly recommended
Some brokerages have released the gold stock portfolio for February 2024
Tomorrow the market will usher in the first trading day in February 2024. According to statistics, as of now, many brokerages have released their gold stock portfolios for February 2024.
Among the gold stocks of brokerage companies in January this year, the “Chinese prefix” targets appeared frequently. For example, according to statistics from each city, among the gold stocks of various brokerages in January this year, China Mobile was jointly recommended by six brokerages, making it the gold stock recommended by the most brokers; China Galaxy and China Pacific Insurance were jointly recommended by four brokerages.
Among the gold stocks that have been announced for February, the frequency of “medium prefix” and “high dividend” targets has a tendency to further increase. According to Choice data statistics, among the gold stocks recommended by two and above securities firms, there are a lot of “medium-prefixed” and “high-dividend” targets. Among them, the “medium-prefixed” targets include China Pacific Insurance (commonly recommended by six securities firms), CNOOC (Recommended by three securities firms), China Nuclear Power, China Shenhua, Air China, etc.; “high dividend” targets include Yili, Hisense Video, Yutong Bus, Chongqing Department Store, Yankuang Energy, Guanghui Energy, Bank of Jiangsu, Poly Development, etc.
In the first month of the year, the brokerage gold stock portfolio was “annihilated”
Ranking of gold stock portfolio returns of various brokerages in January 2024
Judging from the large number of past cases of gold stocks by brokerages, the hot spot at the time of recommendation was the “inertial thinking” of many brokerages when constructing gold stock portfolios. However, judging from the actual performance, such “following the trend recommendation” may not achieve good results. the result of.
According to Wind statistics, for the whole year of 2023, the average return rate of 42 brokerage gold stock portfolios was -12.35%, of which 33 gold stock portfolios did not outperform the market (the Shanghai Stock Index fell 3.7% in 2023), accounting for 78.6%.
As of the close of trading on January 31, the yield rates for January 2024 for each brokerage’s gold stock portfolio were officially released. As expected, the overall performance was relatively sluggish. According to Wind statistics, in January this year, the return rates of 40 brokerage gold stock portfolios were all negative, with an average return rate of -14.7%. There were only two gold stock portfolios that could outperform the Shanghai Composite Index in the same period, and four brokerage gold stock portfolios. The stock portfolio fell more than 20% in January.
Brokerages are hotly discussing “What to buy during the rebound”
Since the beginning of the new year, the spring turbulence has not yet appeared. In January, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 6%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index fell by more than 13%, and the ChiNext fell by more than 16%. In particular, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 13.77% in January, exceeding the 13.54% decline for the whole of 2023.
Specific to individual stocks, according to Choice data, the number of stocks that fell in the A-share market in January this year reached nearly 4,970. Among them, a total of 2,806 A-shares had a cumulative decline of not less than 20% in January this year, accounting for 52%.
In fact, about a month ago, there were major differences in the market outlook for January 2024 released by various brokerages. For example, a certain brokerage pointed out in its strategic view in January 2024 that the allocation after A shares fell below 2900 is more cost-effective, and it is optimistic about the media and electronics in the AI industry chain. Judging from the real market test in January, this view is obviously quite different from the actual market trend.
However, relatively speaking, some leading brokerage firms had been relatively cautious in their outlook for the market at the beginning of the year. For example, China Merchants Securities has previously pointed out that the profit expectations of listed companies in January every year have disturbed the stock market. In some years, the index has been adjusted back in mid-to-late January due to weaker-than-expected performance. In January 2024, the performance expectations for 2023 may be lowered, and the market index Or shocks are the main way to build a bottom. Judging from the real offer test, this view appears to be more forward-looking. In addition, Guotai Junan has also taken a more cautious attitude towards the market recently and warned in advance about the risks of small-cap stocks at the beginning of this year.
After a bad start in January this year, “rebound” has become the consensus of some brokerage companies looking forward to the market in February. However, given that the current large market capitalization sector represented by “medium prefix” and high dividend targets, and the small market capitalization sector represented by small and micro caps, There are obvious trend differences between market capitalization sectors, and there is currently some controversy in the market about what to buy on the rebound.
Zhongtai Securities, which ranked first in gold stock portfolio yields in January, pointed out in its latest allocation view for February that we prefer the value/dividend style to continue to dominate, mainly because the current policy strength may be difficult to meet the conditions for expected revisions.
Some brokerages have also made it clear that small-cap growth is expected to dominate the next rebound. Sinolink Securities pointed out in its latest strategic view that although the market value represented by the short-term “medium special valuation” benefits from the valuation logic of the “central state-owned enterprise market value assessment”, it is expected to usher in thematic opportunities; however, considering that in 2023, The macro environment of the quarter includes: the “double improvement” of economy and liquidity is different from the current background of domestic economic slowdown and only marginal repair of liquidity, which means that the sustainability of the “mid-special assessment” theme investment may be limited. On the contrary, in the current macro environment, the growth style may still benefit most from increased liquidity and risk appetite. In addition, based on the analysis conclusion of our large-cap and large-cap framework, under the background of “widening currency” but not “widening credit”, new funds are still limited. Under the expectation of marginal repair of liquidity, “small boats” will float first, and small and medium-sized caps will be more Dominate. Such cases of switching from large-cap to small-cap growth have also occurred in recent years. For example, from January to April 2022, large-cap value and high dividend defense dominated. Although the economy did not change much from April to August of that year, liquidity was obvious. Improved, the style immediately switched to small and mid-cap growth, with CSI 1000 clearly dominant; from August to October 2023, U.S. bond interest rates rose rapidly, and the same market value and high dividend defense prevailed. By November, U.S. bond interest rates quickly fell back, and the flow The performance has improved, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the market style has rapidly switched from high dividends to small and mid-cap growth.
The latest strategic view released by Zheshang Securities seems to be more moderate, pointing out that “Looking forward to February, we believe that the market is expected to turn upward. On the one hand, market valuations and sentiment are at low levels after the adjustment in January, and on the other hand, reform and opening up The continued increase in policies to stabilize growth has significantly increased market risk appetite. In terms of structure, on the one hand, emphasis is placed on low valuations, and on the other hand, small-cap stocks are also expected to be active. As far as low valuations are concerned, the marginal catalyst lies in the reform and stabilization of central enterprises. Growth is increasing, and most industries have the advantage of stable dividends. As far as small-cap stocks are concerned, pay attention to catalyst developments such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor localization, and MR sales.
(Source of article: Daily Economic News)
Article source: Daily Economic News
Original title: After a bad start in January, brokerage gold stock portfolios were released in February: “medium-prefixed” and “high dividend” targets appeared together.
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