After a lapse of 10 months, the single-day net sales of northbound funds exceeded 10 billion yuan-Finance News

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After a lapse of 10 months, the net sales of northbound funds in a single day exceeded 10 billion yuan! Why does the White Horse Index and the Growth Index Ebb and Grow?

Original Every reporter Every time a bull’s eye

According to statistics from Choice, as of today’s close, northbound funds sold 10.8 billion yuan in net sales throughout the day, a record high in the past 10 months. On September 24 last year, the northbound funds had a single-day net sales of 12.168 billion yuan. Since then, the single-day net sales of northbound funds have not exceeded 10 billion yuan until this record is broken today.

It is worth noting that, from the index level, the style of large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks has reversed in recent stages. The Shanghai Stock Exchange, which has a relatively high share of foreign and institutional shareholding 50,CSI 300 IndexSince the second half of this year, it has underperformed China Securities 500 and other foreign investment and institutions with a relatively low proportion and a relatively high index of industrial capital. Taking today as an example, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell again and is still hovering at a recent low. In contrast, the CSI 500 Index today reached a new high since January 2016.

The single-day net sales of northbound funds exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time in the year

Image source: Choice data

Northbound funds, which had been assisting A shares for many years, suddenly “turned off” today.

According to statistics from Choice, as of today’s close, northbound funds sold 10.8 billion yuan in net sales throughout the day, a record high in the past 10 months. On September 24 last year, the northbound funds had a single-day net sales of 12.168 billion yuan. Since then, the single-day net sales of northbound funds have not exceeded 10 billion yuan until this record is broken today.

At the same time, the overall performance of the market today is relatively weak. The major indexes of A-shares are dominated by declines, among which the decline of large-cap stock indexes ranks first. According to statistics from Choice, as of today’s close, the market value, SSE 50, SSE 180, Shenwan 50, CSI 300 and other indexes have fallen by more than 1%.

The small and medium-cap index outperforms the White Horse Index this year

In the past two years (2019~2020), the A-share market has shown a market characteristic of a small number of stocks being bullish and most stocks being weak. However, this situation has changed since the beginning of this year, and small and medium-cap growth stocks have begun to replace the white horse of the broader market and play the leading role.

The trend of the China Securities 500 Index this year

The trend of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index this year

According to statistics from Choice, most of the top cumulative gains this year are some small and medium-cap growth stock indexes. In contrast, many large-cap stock indexes, such as SSE 50, CSI 100, SSE 180, CSI 300, and Shenwan The 50 and other indexes have all fallen this year, and their performance is at the bottom of the benchmark indexes in the market.

From 2019 to 2020, the white horse stock index represented by the CSI 300 and the CSI 100 outperformed the small and medium-cap growth stock index represented by the CSI 500.

Regarding the substantial net outflow of northbound funds today, a domestic brokerage strategist believes that this may be related to the expectation that the overseas macro environment may change in the second half of the year.

A reporter from the “Daily Business News” recently discovered in an interview that some institutions in the market now expect that overseas liquidity may tighten in the second half of the year, and the Fed may withdraw from quantitative easing in the second half of the year.

For example, at an event held by UBS Asset Management last week, UBS Asset Management (Shanghai) Director and Asset Allocation Fund Manager Roddy told reporters that the liquidity in overseas markets is expected to be tighter in the second half of this year than in the first half of this year. , Because although it is still unlikely that the Fed will raise interest rates early this year, the “stone” of when the Fed will withdraw from quantitative easing has not yet landed.

He suggested that investors pay attention to the impact of the US dollar trend on A-shares, and this impact has become more apparent since 2015 (the US dollar trend and A-shares are usually negatively correlated). However, he also said that China’s monetary policy is less affected by overseas.

Insiders: A-share structural opportunities still exist

Banxia Investment Li Bei recently wrote an analysis that in 2020, due to the sudden epidemic, the Fed launched an unprecedented large-scale release, and the long-term Treasury bond interest rate fell to 0.5%. Abundant liquidity has pushed U.S. stocks to new highs. With the blessing of overseas liquidity, foreign core assets have also reached new highs. In contrast, due to the relative restraint of the People’s Bank of China, the CSI 500, which accounts for a relatively high proportion of domestic industrial capital, performed weakly. Since 2016, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, which has a relatively high foreign investment, has risen by up to 50%, but the CSI 500 is still negative.

In Li Bei’s view, the difference in liquidity that caused the CSI 300 and CSI 500 to differentiate is now facing a reversal. It can be expected that inflation in the United States will remain high in the next few months. In the second half of this year, the Fed will have to consider turning, first discuss reducing QE, and may start discussing interest rate hikes next year. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond interest rate has risen from the lowest 0.5% to about 1.5%, and there is a high probability that the center of gravity will continue to rise. The high valuations of core assets with a high proportion of foreign capital in the Chinese stock market will continue to face compression, while the liquidity of domestic industrial capital tends to be loose.

Yesterday, Fidelity International China’s stock investment director and fund manager Zhou Wenqun also said at an event that A shares may outperform other overseas markets in the second half of this year, “although the short-term valuation of the Chinese market may be compared from a historical point of view. Higher, but in fact, from a global perspective, the horizontal comparison is still more attractive, because the valuation of the global market has increased significantly in the past six months.”

Sina statement: This news is reprinted from Sina’s cooperative media. Sina.com posted this article for the purpose of conveying more information and does not mean that it agrees with its views or confirms its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.

Editor in charge: Yang Hongbu