The economy in Germany is weakening. The economic forecasts are turning negative. Picture Alliance
The Expert Council of Economists has lowered its forecast for the economy. Economists expect the German economy to shrink by 0.4 percent and only grow minimally by 0.7 percent in 2024.
So that all economic institutes, banks and international institutions have turned their forecast for 2023 into the red – and only expect small growth in 2024.
Here is an overview of the most important forecasts for German economic growth in 2023 and 2024.
The Advisory Council for the Assessment of Overall Economic Development expects the German economy to shrink this year. The “economic wise men” lowered their economic forecast to minus 0.4 percent. They lowered their economic forecast for the coming year to just 0.7 percent.
This means that all important economists have now turned their forecasts for the German economy into negative territory.
Economic forecasts are currently changing rapidly. This reflects the great uncertainty resulting from the war in Ukraine. Possible consequences of the war in Israel have not yet been taken into account in the forecasts.
Our table shows all forecasts for the economy in Germany for 2023 and 2024. They come from the government, international organizations, Institutes, banks and associations. The forecasts refer to the change in gross domestic product (GDP) compared to the previous year.
The arrows show in which direction the forecasts were last corrected. You can sort all columns using the top field.
What are the economic forecasts for Germany?
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The forecasts for the economy are currently turning sharply downwards. This doesn’t just apply to the current year. Economists have also become more pessimistic for 2024. The Council of Experts was the last important institution to update its forecast at the beginning of November.
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The German economy was hit particularly hard by the consequences of the Russian attack on Ukraine. High energy prices caused inflation to skyrocket in Germany in 2022. According to many economists, developments in the Ukraine war, energy prices and inflation will remain the most important uncertainty factors for the economy in 2023. Added to this is the weakness of the global economy, China and thus also German exports. The economic forecasts are therefore likely to remain volatile.
What is positive is that the labor market in Germany remains quite stable. At the same time, wages and salaries are rising faster than prices for the first time in two years. The purchasing power of incomes therefore increases. This should support private consumption and thus the economy.
Economists speak of a recession when a country’s economic output declines in two quarters in a row. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the gross domestic product in Germany fell by 0.5 percent. In the first quarter, GDP fell again by 0.3 percent.
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In the most recent forecast by the industrialized countries organization OECD, Germany is in second to last place in terms of economic growth in 2023. Only the crisis country Argentina fares worse.
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