Analysts Raise Forecast for Mexican Economy in 2024, Predict Lower Inflation and Cheaper Dollar
Analysts consulted by Banxico have raised their forecast for the Mexican economy in 2024, increasing their estimate from 2.10% to 2.29%. The Treasury is even more optimistic, predicting a growth range of 2.5% to 3.5% for the Mexican economy next year.
For 2023, the median forecast maintained by 35 analysis groups surveyed by the central bank remains at 3.40%. The government also expects the expansion this year to be up to 3.6%, according to the Undersecretary of the Treasury, Gabriel Yorio.
In terms of inflation, economic specialists expect general inflation for all of 2023 to slow down to 4.44%, lower than the previous estimate of 4.54%. They also maintained their general inflation expectation at 4% for 2024, still above Banxico’s 3% target. The central bank expects the convergence towards its inflation target to be achieved until the second quarter of 2025.
Analysts also predict a cheaper dollar at the end of 2023 and 2024, with expectations of the dollar to be at 17.57 pesos by the end of 2023 and a parity of 18.53 units per dollar for 2024. Expectations for the trade deficit in 2023 fell to $13,548 million from the previous estimate of $15,400 million, while the forecast for foreign direct investment in 2023 rose to $37.238 billion.
Lastly, analysts maintained their forecast that Banxico’s reference interest rate at the end of 2024 will be reduced to 9.25% from the current 11.25%, and they also maintained their calculation of 7.50% by the end of 2025.
The information was provided by Francisco Rivera and EFE. Stay informed by following us on Google News.