War, inflation and weak economic forecasts – the stock market year 2023 had a bad star. In the end, however, it is clear that stock prices around the world have risen, artificial intelligence has boosted the US technology stock market and gold is still a safe crisis asset. SRF News takes stock with Matthias Geissbühler, head of investments at Raiffeisen Switzerland.
Matthias Geissbühler
Investment Manager Raiffeisen Switzerland
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Matthias Geissbühler has been responsible for investment policy as head of investment at Raiffeisen Switzerland since 2019. He and his team analyze global events on the financial markets and develop the bank’s investment strategy.
SRF News: Mr. Geissbühler, what is your stock market conclusion for 2023 across all asset classes?
Matthias Geissbühler: Basically, we can say that 2023 was an above-average year for the stock market. With a balanced strategy you could gain between 5 and 6 percent. This is above the long-term average.
What went particularly well and what went particularly badly?
The highlight was the US technology exchange. The big technology stocks have made strong gains. Also thanks to the hype surrounding the topic of artificial intelligence. On the losing side were the Chinese stock markets, the Hang Seng Index, but also the mainland stock exchange. They have made significant corrections. The real estate crisis in China has placed a heavy burden on the markets.
And Swiss real estate?
Swiss real estate funds have performed relatively well again this year. They were able to increase by around 5.5 percent. This also has to do with the hope that the peak in mortgage interest rates is also behind us. In addition, many real estate developers were able to increase rental rates due to the adjustment of the reference interest rate.
Compared to international markets, the Swiss stock market performed worse. For what reason?
This is also due to the fact that the two SMI heavyweights Roche and Nestlé reported a significantly negative performance this year. In addition, if you take the dividends into account, we are up 6.7 percent. That’s not such a bad performance by historical average.
In real terms, the franc has become stronger – but not as strong as it might seem.
The Swiss franc has appreciated in recent days. How do you classify that?
The development has become significantly more pronounced in the last few days. The US dollar and the euro have weakened against the Swiss franc. Certain special effects at the end of the year also come into play. I think that things will level out a bit again at the beginning of 2024. And of course you have to classify it. These are nominal exchange rates, but you also have to take inflation into account. In real terms, the franc has become stronger – but not as strong as it might seem.
Gold is at an all-time high in December. What is currently driving the price?
I think gold has once again fulfilled its function as a crisis protection very well. We still have geopolitical tensions: the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, tensions between China and the USA. Of course, this helps gold in general. And the hope of falling interest rates also plays a role there.
I expect 2024 to be a very volatile and challenging stock market year.
And what awaits us in 2024?
The question is: Will there be a soft landing for the economy or will there still be a recession? And how much is inflation falling? Monetary policy is of course also linked to these factors. If inflation remains stubbornly high, then interest rates will not fall as much. However, if interest rates fall sharply, then this will probably mean that the economy has deteriorated further. In this respect, I expect 2024 to be a very volatile and challenging stock market year.
The interview was conducted by Stefanie Knoll.