Our stock market experts look to the coming week: The Dax could climb to an annual high after the supposed end of the banking crisis. But have the dangers really been averted?
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Was there something? The Dax is rising so that the recent banking crisis would not have happened. In the past week of trading, the leading German index made up ground day by day. Apparently, investors were satisfied that the banking industry announced no further trouble. In addition, declining energy prices raised hopes that the inflation rate would fall and that the European Central Bank would turn interest rates less. The situation is similar in the USA, where the Dow Jones recorded a plus of a good three percent over the week. The near bankruptcies of several US regional banks had triggered the financial crisis and the fear on the stock exchanges in the first place.
That’s one reason why some stock market experts aren’t quite sure about the state of the US regional banks and the stock market recovery. The focus is now on commercial real estate: Here, two-thirds of the loans are granted by US regional banks. “The risks are increasing. Overall, prices are falling for office properties, for example, and there are also signs of an oversupply for apartments,” says Jörg Krämer. The chief economist at Commerzbank expects loan defaults to gradually increase in the coming quarters and put a strain on the regional banks. However, the US banking regulator is very experienced and always winds up some banks, even in good years.
Is the Dax even climbing to an annual high?
Some market observers, on the other hand, expect that the Dax could climb above the 15,700 mark to an annual high in the coming stock exchange week – that would be the highest level in 14 months. Exciting dates are pending before the trading week, which was shortened due to Easter. Here, too, the focus is on the USA: the labor market report will be published on Good Friday. “Employment development in the USA has been surprisingly strong, especially in the first two months of this year,” notes Deka. A strong report could also give the dollar a tailwind. However, the stock market reaction to this will only come later, since there will be no trading in Europe or the USA on Good Friday.
In Germany, the stock market traders look primarily at the incoming orders from industry, which will be published on Wednesday. On Thursday, the experts are betting that the industrial production data for February will remain stable.