MILANO – The final considerations of governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, still behind semi-closed doors but with a country that aims to consolidate the signs of a recovery that is beginning to manifest itself. Visco will speak on Monday morning in front of a salon still with contingent inflows due to anti-virus rules, but a different tone is expected from last year’s Considerations: then, Visco had to predict an unprecedented collapse in GDP for Italy and put in all the problems that the pandemic would have caused to explode: an increase in inequalities, the need for action by the ECB and Brussels.
Today the vaccination campaign and the relaxation of restrictive measures allow us to see glimmers of optimism. Confindustria again indicated them yesterday, they also expect the OECD to update its economic outlook on Monday morning. For Italy, the estimate of via Nazionale is a growth of more than 4%. “The start of vaccination campaigns in Italy and in the rest of the world“, Visco said on the occasion of the ordinary meeting of the participants, “induces a cautious optimism for the future”
And yet, he added, “uncertainty remains about the evolution of the health crisis and, consequently, the prospects for the economy”. Already on that occasion, Visco recalled that the 248 billion of the NRP risk “not being sufficient to guarantee a lasting increase in the rate of growth” if they are not accompanied “by reforms that untie the knots that hold back development and ‘private investment’. Women, young people, climate change are other aspects on which the governor has been beating for some time.
Monday will not only be the day of Visco and the OECD, but also of an industrial-financial-political match that Italy has been dragging on for years: that of the Motorways, whose control could thus pass to the Cassa Depositi e Prestiti. The shareholders’ meeting of the Atlantia holding company (called for 2 pm) which holds 88% of Aspi will have to decide whether to sell the controlling stake to the consortium formed by Cdp and the two funds, Blackstone and Macquariue. The shareholders of the holding will have to vote whether to accept the consortium’s offer of 9.3 billion euros and give the green light to the sale. In this case, again on Monday evening, the Board of Directors of the holding should be held to set the date for another board (presumably June 10) to formalize the deal and the final transaction that could take place at the end of June with the final closing of the operation in the first quarter of 2022.
During the week there are also numerous important appointments for the markets, starting with European inflation on Tuesday and the data on the US labor market on Friday. On the calendar there are also the two US ISMs, the manufacturing one and the services one, which will be released on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. On Monday, however, markets are subdued for two holidays: Memorial Day in the US and the bank holiday in the UK. Also worth mentioning is the Beige Book Fed Wednesday. The week will then be closed by the summit of finance ministers and G7 governors in London.
Here are the main events on the agenda Acted:
MONDAY 31 MAY
– Atlantia: shareholders’ meeting on the CDP offer for Aspi.
– Bankitalia: Final considerations by Governor Ignazio Visco.
– Istat: inflation in May.
– Abi: Council meeting.
– Ocse: economic outlook.
– Germany: inflation in May.
– Markets: closed in London and New York.
TUESDAY 1 JUNE
– Confindustria: inauguration of the vaccination hub. Speakers will be the president Carlo Bonomi, the health minister, Roberto Speranza, the emergency commissioner, Francesco Paolo Figliuolo, the councilor for health of the Lazio region, Alessio D’Amato.
– Istat: employed and unemployed in April.
– Istat: quarterly income statements of the first quarter.
– Recovery: meeting organized by PwC Italia with the Minister of Ecological Transition, Roberto Cingolani.
– Mef: requirement in May.
– Cars: registrations in May.
– Tpl: 24-hour strike.
– Oil: Opec + summit.
– USA: ISM manufacturing index in May.
– Germany: unemployment rate in May.
– China: Caixin manufacturing index in May.
– PMI manufacturing index: Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Gb, Eurozone.
WEDNESDAY 2 JUNE
– ECB: President Christine Lagarde receives the Turgot Prize.
– Germany: retail sales in April.
– Use: Fed’s Beige Book.
THURSDAY 3 JUNE
– Gdf: presentation of the Fiamme Gialle athletics commemorative stamp on the centenary of the foundation. The Minister of Economic Development, Giancarlo Giorgetti, participates.
– Dl support Bis: hearing of the director general of ABI, Giovanni Sabatini in the Budget Committee in the Chamber.
– Work: round table of the Inequalities and Diversity Forum and of the Crs. With the participation of the Minister of Labor, Andrea Orlando.
– Use: oil stocks.
– USA: non-manufacturing ISM index.
– USA: new employees in the private sector.
– USA: new applications for weekly unemployment benefits.
– Services and composite SMEs: Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Gb, Eurozone.
FRIDAY 4 JUNE
– Fitch; Italy rating review.
– G7: Summit of Finance Ministers and Governors in London.
– Festival of the Economy of trento: participates, among others, the minister of the PA, Renato Brunetta.
– Istat: prospects for the Italian economy.
– Climate: Green swan virtual conference. Round table with the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde; Fed Chairman Jerome Powell; the director general of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva; the president of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Galhau; the president of the People’s Bank of China, Yi Gang. An intervention by the governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, is also expected.
– Germany: Dbrs rating review.
– USA: unemployment rate in May.
SATURDAY 5 JUNE
– G7: Summit of Finance Ministers and Governors in London.
– Trento Festival of Economics: the Minister of Tourism, Massimo Garavaglia, and the Minister of Ecological Transition, Roberto Cingolani, will participate, among others.
SUNDAY 6 JUNE
Trento Festival of Economics: the president of Tim, Salvatore Rossi, participates among others; the Minister of Economic Development, Giancarlo Giorgetti; the minister for technological innovation, Vittorio Colao; the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Gita Gopinath; the governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco.
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