An assist against expensive energy could come directly from the weather. According to estimates made by the EU satellite observation platform Copernicusmanaged by the European Commission and the European Space Agency (ESA), this winter the temperatures between December and March in Europe and on the east coast of the United States are expected to be significantly milder than in previous years.
A rise in temperatures that could cushion the impact of the rise in gas, mitigating the demand for the raw material necessary for heating homes and offices. As reported by the BloombergCopernicus scientists believe there is a 50-60% chance that the UK, much of Mediterranean and Central Europe will experience above average temperatures.
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The Copernicus model collects data from scientists from the UK, France, Germany and the US with the help of billions of incoming observations from satellites, ships, planes and weather stations. However, not the whole world of meteorology seems to agree with this scenario. From the USA, for the Commodity Weather GroupEurope will experience a colder winter than the past, albeit slightly warmer than the average of the last 10 years.
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“We certainly cannot exclude that moments of great cold are unleashed in some moments of winter, but overall the models suggest that weak cold fronts could occur more easily, moving frequently”, explained the meteorologist instead. Wiliam Hennenbergquoted by Bloomberg.
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Special observation of the meteorologists will be theArctic and in particular the polar vortex, a low pressure area that moves around the pole. If the polar vortex winds weaken, the cold air could begin to push south. However, it is difficult to understand when the vortex could weaken: a first indicator – according to Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasts at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, could arrive as early as this month from Siberia. Significant levels of snow could be a problematic first indication of an impending cold wave.