CITIC Securities: In the growth sector, it is shifted from a high-position track to a relatively low-position track, with consumption and medicine on the left side
The current A-share market is still in the process of balancing between styles and sectors, and has entered the policy observation period. The market focus will gradually shift from growth to value, and the growth internal will shift from a high track to a low track. At the end of the third quarter Before the style switch, the configuration insisted on both growth manufacturing and value consumption.
First of all, the overall domestic macro data has been weak recently, but the market has already responded adequately. It is expected that the disturbance of the scattered epidemic will dissipate at the end of August, and the fundamentals are expected to begin to be repaired at the end of September. At the same time, the suppression of the market by credit risks has eased, but it will take time for an orderly release. Secondly, the policy has entered an important observation period, and it is expected that under the combination of “reduction of reserve rate + MLF reduction”,currencyThe policy will maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, the issuance of special bonds will be accelerated, and the fiscal policy will make efforts to deploy cross-year and cross-cycle adjustments. In addition, the market has recovered from the extreme reaction to the full proliferation of individual industry policies. at last,MidlandThe implementation of the Taper plan is gradually approaching, the liquidity of the A-share market remains tightly balanced, and the seesaw effect of funds is obvious. It is expected that the focus of the market will gradually shift from growth to value. However, under the constraints of fundamental factors, the style switch will have to wait until the end of the third quarter. The current configuration is still recommended to maintain a balance between growth manufacturing and value consumption. The high-position circuit is shifted to the relatively low-position circuit, and at the same time, the high-prosperity consumption and medicine in the value sector are placed on the left.
Haitong Securities: The style is more balanced, from single music to public music
The bond issuance plan shows that net bond financing in the third week of August will hit a new high for the year, and the active policy set by the 730 Politburo meeting is being implemented. This year’s macro background is similar to that of 10 years, and the market is also the same, with first falling and then rising, profit support is more exciting in the second half. The style is more balanced, from single music to public music, taking into account smart manufacturing and traditional midstream and downstream manufacturing.
Guotai JunanSecurities: The market continues to push upwards, holding on to technological growth, paying attention toBrokerageBank
As the weight stabilizes + the small and medium-sized sectors rise, the upward force of the market is expected to continue.Based on risk-freeinterest rateDownward with risk evaluation, grasping mid-market blue chips in style, holding technology growth in industry configuration, and adding suggestions to focus on brokeragesBank。
The underlying logic has not changed, and differences are also consensus. Recently, disagreements on the hot track of technological growth have resurfaced, and the core contradiction points to “expensive or not expensive.” We believe that the current economy is still facing certain downward pressure, and it is expected that the combination of wide currency + stable credit will be maintained in the second half of the year. Under this background, the profit growth rate of technological growth has become a consensus in the market. From the perspective of industry allocation, “profits determine the outcome, not the valuation ratio”, and the technology boom cycle + top-down-oriented catalysis is still our first recommended direction. From the perspective of transaction congestion, despite the increase in the concentration of the chip structure, the current market TOP3 industry transactions accounted for 34.37%, which has not reached the top position in the past ten years, and the transaction heat can hardly be peaked.
CICC: Control the rhythm of growth, pay attention to some “old white horses”
Since the beginning of April, the partial growth style that has performed strongly since the beginning of April has recently seen stock prices fluctuate. Correspondingly, some of the “old white horses” that have been adjusted more before have rebounded, such as the leading companies in the consumption, value blue chip, and cyclical sectors. Reiterate the view of “light index and focus on structure”, and make more balance between technological growth and “old white horse”. While continuing to focus on the continuity of technological growth, we should keep track of the pace and focus on those with attractive valuations. Some “old white horse” stocks.In addition, it has entered the interim reportPerformanceDuring the peak period of disclosure, pay attention to sectors and individual stocks whose performance during the interim report period may exceed or fall below expectations.
Configuration suggestion: The growth style controls the rhythm, and pays attention to some “old white horses”. 1) Highly prosperous, China’s already competitive or growing industrial chain: electric vehicle industrial chain, photovoltaics, technological hardware and software, electronic semiconductors, some manufacturing capital goods, etc. The valuation is getting higher and the short-term volatility is increasing, but it may still be positive in the medium term; 2) Pan-consumer industry: In the pan-consumption industry, including daily necessities, home appliances, automobiles and parts, medicine and medical equipment, light industrial homes and other fields from the bottom Select stocks on the top; 3) Gradually reduce the cycle allocation but pay attention to some cycles with favorable structure or structural growth characteristics:Non-ferrous metalsSuch as lithium, chemical industry and financial leaders benefiting from the development trend of wealth and asset management. Focus on some “old white horse” stocks that have more callbacks and attractive valuations.
China Merchants Securities: New lines or emergence of market layout
The new social financing in July 2021 was once again lower than expected, continuing the downward trend of the past six months. As the effectiveness of the previous round of stabilizing growth policies fades, the economy will gradually enter the “post-cycle” and “downward period.” After the last two rounds of the economy entered the post-cycle and downturn period, the policies have maintained a fixed force, with “innovation” and economic structural transformation as the new driving force for economic development. During the current economic downturn, centering on the “manufacturing power” strategy, China’s superior manufacturing, being “stuck-necked” potential manufacturing, and the third-generation “To M Internet” serving the manufacturing power strategy will likely have a new main line of subsequent market layout. .
Essence Securities: The bottom of the second half of the year has passed the high probability, continue to grasp the small and medium-sized caps, military industry, new infrastructure
There is a clear difference between this year’s “tight credit” and 2018. At this point, we are not pessimistic about the market. From the perspective of the combination of liquidity and fundamentals, A shares currently do not have the conditions to turn from bull to bear. From the perspective of market characteristics, China’s concept stocks plummeted after the introduction of a series of policies such as education “double reduction”, which is a test to test market fragility and carrying capacity. Stabilizing, the high probability of the bottom of the index in the second half of the year has passed. In the short term, there has been a phased rebalancing of market styles.Institutions are basically in place for new energy, semiconductors and other popular tracks. Social financing is low. US debtinterest rateThe rebound constitutes a marginal constraint on the high valuation sector. On the other hand, some industries have experienced large declines in the early stage, and there is also a rebound demand. However, in the medium and long term, the most important factor in whether the main line is switched or not is the comparison of economic trends.
In the configuration direction, continue to deploy new energy and other high-prosperity long-track targets. If there is an adjustment, it is an opportunity. The industry is concerned: military industry, new energy, chemical industry, coal, securities companies, etc. Continue to be optimistic about the three major directions of small and medium-sized caps, military industry, and new infrastructure. Small and medium caps: In the past few years, the market has given excessive discounts to its valuation. Once the company has high prosperous expectations, its stock price will also appear to be offensive in stages. The current value mining of small and medium-sized caps, especially small and medium-sized growth stocks, is still insufficient, and value revaluation is expected in the future, which will form a Davis double-click with its own performance growth. Military industry: The high-prosperity growth industry is in the early stage of stagnation. The year-to-date index has increased by only 4%. The industry chain prosperity in the interim quarter has continued to materialize, and it has absolute growth and relative prosperity advantages during the economic downturn. New infrastructure: With the economic downturn, the margin of underpinning will inevitably increase. From the perspective of marginal changes in the economy and valuation resistance (mid-term industry space and policy-friendliness, etc.), our ranking is that new infrastructure is better than old infrastructure and real estate is better than the overall economy.
Industrial Securities: It is difficult to switch styles, and science and technology are growing in the ascendant
The A-share market was in a period of turbulence and turbulence in August. Track stocks with excessively large gains, high expectations, and overcrowded transactions have made up their losses as scheduled, and low-value and low-growth traditional industries such as financial and real estate (referred to as “low-pass production”) have made up or repaired. However, based on medium-term basics Judging from the above, systematic style switching is difficult to appear, and the growth of science and technology is in the ascendant. It is recommended to take advantage of the turbulence to continue the “little giants” of science and technology innovation who have not paid enough attention to the Nuggets market.
It is recommended to take advantage of short-term market volatility to optimize the position portfolio, and patience to deploy high-quality growth stocks on dips. It is not recommended to lower your position in the face of pessimism and panic. Configuration level: Growth is still the core of the recommendation, but more attention is paid to cost performance, and more attention is paid to the direction and individual stocks with better odds. Including: 1) “Small and beautiful” science and technology giants with long-term cost-effectiveness; 2) Among the high-performance stocks whose interim reports exceed expectations, look for new growth alpha stocks that can cross the cycle attribute, gold mining and non-ferrous metals, chemical industry, transportation, building materials Emerging growth cores under the veil of certain cyclical value stocks in other fields; 3) Those areas where the fundamentals are not bright, the assets that will turn in the second half of the year are arranged in advance, and the direction of “new infrastructure” for steady growth, including small home appliances, automobiles, machinery, It also includes the “Long Yi” of consumer sub-sectors. Based on the long-term and embracing the core assets of the future, in the era of registration system, you can focus on the following directions to pan for the gold science and innovation giants: 1) high-end manufacturing (semiconductor industry chain, military industry chain, etc.); 2) new energy chain (new energy materials, Lithium battery equipment, new energy vehicle industry chain, intelligent driving, etc.); 3) AIoT (computers, communications, electronics); 4) Life sciences (biomedicine, medical equipment, medical services, seeds, etc.).
GF Securities: Continue to “sink in market value” and look for point-like proliferation
Continue to resolutely “sink in market value.” The recent slight rebound in interest rates has significantly promoted the excess returns of value stocks. Both small-cap value and small-cap growth reached new highs since the “policy pit”, while the rebound in large-cap growth seemed to have peaked last week. All this shows that the “market value sinking” strategy that has been emphasized since Q1 is the biggest beta this year. It is recommended to continue to firmly “market value sinking” in an environment where earnings elasticity has not yet been destroyed and the microstructure is still unhealthy. After accumulating substantial gains, the market is worried about the loosening of popular stocks and analyzes it from three factors: (1) Whether the relative prosperity has significantly converged; (2) Whether the monetary policy is substantially tightened; (3) Whether the valuation/allocation is extremely divergent.
Yuekai Securities: Short-term disturbance, long-term layout
In August, the A-share market is in a period of turbulence, and macro disturbances at home and abroad will increase. At the trading level, growth stocks that have experienced excessive gains, high expectations, and overcrowded trading in the previous period may be at risk of compensating declines in the short term. However, there is no systemic risk in the mid-term A shares. It is expected that after the market undergoes certain turbulence and consolidation, the growth bull and the structural bull will continue. High-prosperity growth stocks will still be the main line of A shares. Investors can actively grasp the layout opportunities brought about by short-term adjustments. .
From a short-term trading perspective, it is more difficult for the market to make money. Trading in high-prosperity sectors such as new energy vehicles and semiconductors has been relatively crowded, and there may be pressure to compensate for losses in the short term. In the medium and long term, with moderately loose liquidity expectations, funds may continue to pursue a small number of high-prosperity sectors. In terms of policy, the Politburo meeting on July 30 mentioned for the first time “developing specialized, specialized, new and small-sized enterprises”, and made specialized, specialized and innovative as one of the key points of policy support for development. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also issued a document emphasizing the priority of focusing on the shortcomings of the manufacturing industry and the industrialization of key basic technologies and products. We are optimistic about the technology sector and high-end manufacturing sector with rising prosperity.Specifically, according to the expected PE in 2021 and the forecastNet profitThe sectors with high growth rate and high cost performance (PEG<1) include electrical equipment (new energy), electronics (semiconductor), mechanical equipment, automobiles, communications, etc.
Southwest Securities: The market has begun to enter a period of chaos
The current market has begun to enter a period of chaos, and the sectors that have risen rapidly in the previous period have all experienced various degrees of correction, while the sectors that have fallen sharply in the previous period have some signs of stabilization, and some are still in the fluctuating downward channel. In terms of total volume, the index is showing a trend of volatility and consolidation, while in terms of structure, many individual stocks and certain segments are still very active. In this situation, from a strategic point of view, the five major factors that affect the market will be sorted out again from the top down to lay a foundation for comprehensively judging market trends and industry opportunities.In the second half of the year, macroeconomic trends, industrial policy orientation, foreign investment, etc.Cash flowThe game between China and the United States, and the new crown epidemic have repeatedly become key factors affecting the market.
In terms of investment strategy, the three pillars of military industry, resources, and black can be deployed in the third quarter. Military work is hard technology, and it is also the industry with the most reasonable valuation and performance matching in the corresponding sector. At the same time, the long-term tension of Sino-US relations has also made the deployment of military industry more necessary. The supply and demand ends of the upstream resources form an industry boom. The supply side cannot be released due to the epidemic, while on the demand side, due to the continued economic recovery, prices remain high and the industry boom continues. For the black series, due to the price cut on the cost side, the ex-factory price on the production side is still high, and the industry profit is very considerable, ushering in a rising window period.
(Source: Brokerage China)
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