Caixin China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 50.4 in July, the expansion rate slowed down | PMI_Sina Finance_Sina Network

Original title: Caixin China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 50.4 in July, expansion slowed down

The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) recorded 50.4 in July, down 1.3 percentage points from June and still in expansion territory.

[Caixin.com]After the rapid release of manufacturing supply and demand in June after the epidemic, in July, due to factors such as the entry of the traditional production off-season and the slight rebound of the epidemic, the pace of manufacturing repairs slowed down.

The July Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released on August 1 recorded 50.4, which was 1.3 percentage points lower than that in June, and was still in the expansion range.

This trend is in line with the Bureau of Statistics’ manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics in July recorded 49.0, down 1.2 percentage points, and returned to the contraction range after a brief expansion in June.

In terms of sub-indices, the manufacturing production index and new orders index both fell in the expansion range in July, indicating that the recovery of manufacturing supply and demand has slowed down. The interviewed companies reported that relatively weak demand, continued impact of the epidemic, and power outages combined to restrict output growth. Disaggregated data showed new orders for consumer goods and investment goods rose, but new orders for intermediate categories fell. External demand was relatively stable, and the new export orders index in July continued the expansion trend in June, but the magnitude was slightly smaller.

Manufacturing employment in July was the lowest since May 2020. The survey showed that the labor contraction was linked to cost cuts, sluggish sales, and employees not filling vacancies after voluntary departures. Benefiting from the decline in the prices of some bulk commodities, the purchasing price index of the manufacturing industry fell sharply in the expansion range in July, falling to the lowest level in the year; the sales side was greatly restrained by weak demand, and the ex-factory price index fell below the line of prosperity and decline for the third consecutive month. The decline widened, but the ex-factory prices of consumer goods rose.

Affected by the shortage of suppliers’ inventories and manpower, and the recent spread of the epidemic, the supplier delivery time index fell below the line of prosperity and decline again in July. With relatively few new businesses and companies having enough capacity to handle backlogs, backlogs fell for the second month in a row in July.

Some companies hoarded commodities whose prices have fallen recently, the purchase of raw materials increased slightly, and the raw material inventory index rose in the expansion range. The finished goods inventory index remained in contractionary territory, but the decline narrowed due to shipments to customers and a reluctance to build inventories due to weak demand.

Manufacturing companies remained optimistic in July, but due to concerns about weak demand and a rebound in the epidemic, the production and operation expectations index fell slightly.

Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Think Tank, said that the improvement of the epidemic situation and the relaxation of control measures in July helped the manufacturing industry continue to recover, but the foundation for recovery is not yet solid. . Supply and demand continued to improve, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remained; the feedback from the job market was sluggish, and it was still in the contraction range; the cost side continued to rise, while the fee side continued to decline, and corporate profits faced challenges; market optimism remained, but the economic There are also concerns about the outlook.

In his view, the main macroeconomic indicators in the second quarter show that the short-term impact of the epidemic on the economy has gradually subsided, and the third quarter will be an important window for economic recovery. The central government has made it clear that it will not introduce super-large stimulus measures, and it is a more pragmatic choice to speed up the implementation of existing policies. In addition, the job market continues to be under pressure, and the economic conditions of low-income groups continue to deteriorate. Intensifying efforts to stabilize employment and raising the level of subsidies and temporary assistance should be the focus of policy implementation.

责任编辑：王蒙