After several stop and gos, the Cdp led by Dario Scannapieco finally managed to put an offer on the table for the purchase of the Tim network.
But it remains difficult to understand how much this is supported by the various government structures. Giancarlo Giorgetti, owner of the Mef which controls the Cassa to 85%, tried up to the last minute to bring the CDP into the offer already presented by the US fund Kkr. But faced with the Americans’ request to release them from the Antitrust issue and to put all the money on the table immediately, he had to give Scannapieco’s proposal the green light. On which the tenant of the Ministry of Industry, Adolfo Urso, has always been in favour, who never misses an opportunity to hope for public control of the network.
However, it is not clear how Palazzo Chigi thinks about it, which participated in all the technical tables through the head of the cabinet Gaetano Caputi. Indeed, rumors collected by Repubblica report that Giorgia Meloni on her last trip to Brussels asked Marghrete Vestager directly what the conditions could be for a merger between the Tim network and Open Fiber. The answer would have been quite chilling: no less than two strong operators on the fixed network, even public ones. A condition that should apply particularly in the black areas of the country, i.e. those with a high economic return. But splitting the Tim network in the black areas is almost impossible, while removing the former Metroweb from Open Fiber would be much simpler. The risk, however, is to make Open Fiber fall under the weight of debts by strengthening a third-party operator. The CDP will therefore have to talk hard with the EU to arrive at an acceptable solution, but perhaps it will do so at a later time since it seems that the offer made with the Australian fund Macquarie is being made through a new vehicle and not directly with Open Fiber.
Then there is the cash issue, in the sense that CDP and Macquarie would offer Tim 11-12 billion in cash, more than the 10 offered by Kkr. But where do they get them? If CDP were to take over 60%, it means paying out 6 billion when Scannapieco has been complaining since the beginning of his mandate that his predecessor, Fabrizio Palermo, has consumed almost all of the available equity. Will they put more debt on Netco’s shoulders and relieve Tim less? Or will they find other partners with whom to share the burden as was done for Aspi? To be seen.
Third point of interest to the French media giant Vivendi which controls 24% of Tim: will the company that remains without the network be economically viable? It will depend on how much debt is left in the belly and on the onerousness of the contracts for connection to the detached network. In its offer, Kkr asked for guaranteed minimums, we need to see what Cdp has in mind. And then there will be the problem of personnel to be distributed between two companies, with the unions already on the barricades against the stew.
The arrival of the second offer for the network nonetheless makes Tim’s board of directors happy, who by the end of the month will have to decide, together with his advisors Equita and LionTree, if and who to continue. But the trial by fire will only come at the time of the extraordinary meeting where Vivendi has substantial veto power. It won’t be easy for the French to go against the government and two offers that value the network at around 20 billion. Furthermore, the alternative of removing Tim from the Stock Exchange, feasible until last summer, is now no longer so based on the polls carried out by the French themselves. The banks are no longer willing to finance it and it would have the effect of increasing the debt of the target company even more.